1 Picks by Pick Monitor Handicappers. Show Them.
Handicapper	Pick	Result	eP	eWP	Z	# Plays
RenoChazz	[1391] Gary Johnson popular vote over 0.49999% -320	+$500	$21,159	53.37%	1.15	4,424

11 Line Moves. Show Them.
Time	Moneyline	Spread	Total
10/23 5:24 AM	Gary Johnson popular vote under 0.49999% +200	-	-
10/23 8:42 PM	Gary Johnson popular vote under 0.49999% +240	-	-
10/24 12:45 PM	Gary Johnson popular vote under 0.49999% +320	-	-
10/24 3:15 PM	Gary Johnson popular vote under 0.49999% +300	-	-
10/24 9:12 PM	Gary Johnson popular vote under 0.49999% +240	-	-
10/26 7:54 PM	Gary Johnson popular vote under 0.49999% +260	-	-
10/27 12:36 AM	Gary Johnson popular vote under 0.49999% +280	-	-
10/28 6:27 PM	Gary Johnson popular vote under 0.49999% +334	-	-
11/5 2:24 PM	Gary Johnson popular vote under 0.49999% +400	-	-

Gary Johnson Popular Vote Over 0.49999% Vs Gary Johnson Popular Vote Under 0.49999% 11-6-2012

RenoChazz - Post #1 10/26/12 1:16 AM5,516 REP -

Can someone explain exactly what this proposition is?

Spreadratings - Post #2 10/26/12 1:24 AM895 REP -

It's whether or not he will win at least one half of one percent of the vote or if he will be under one half of one percent of the vote.

Jonathan Ma - Post #3 10/26/12 1:24 AM3,035 REP -

"Gary Earl Johnson is an American businessman, a former Governor of New Mexico, and the Libertarian Party nominee for President of the United States in the 2012 election."

I didn't know either, so I googled his name.

So he's the Libertarian Party's nominee for President in the upcoming election. Looks like this prop is to wager whether he gets more than or less than half a percent of the popular vote.

Jonathan Ma - Post #4 10/26/12 1:25 AM3,035 REP -

@spreadratings, there's electorial votes and the popular votes. you need to specify which you are referring to.

Spreadratings - Post #5 10/26/12 1:26 AM895 REP -

In this case it's the popular vote and according to Intrade, there is an 80% chance that he will succeed in achieving at least 1/2 of one percent.

RenoChazz - Post #6 10/26/12 1:27 AM5,516 REP -

I know who he is just wanted to make sure before I pound the over here

Jonathan Ma - Post #7 10/26/12 1:28 AM3,035 REP -

I think it'll be more than that. Political analysists that I've read say Johnson and Goode both will likely take 1-2% each away from the overall numbers come election day.

Jonathan Ma - Post #8 10/26/12 1:29 AM3,035 REP -

Yeah, I think the over is pretty solid.

RenoChazz - Post #9 10/26/12 1:29 AM5,516 REP -

He's polling in the double digits in some states.

RenoChazz - Post #10 10/26/12 11:38 AM5,516 REP -

Now I'll feel like my vote counted.

RenoChazz - Post #11 10/26/12 11:59 AM5,516 REP -

I figure if intrade has this at an 80% chance then the no vig line should be −400, right? So −320 is a good bet too.

Patrick - Post #12 10/26/12 12:11 PM6,193 REP -

That would be correct. Nice bet.

StatDude - Post #13 10/26/12 12:21 PM1,328 REP -

I'm seeing a lot of "Middles" on InTrade vs 5dimes odds. Anyone profiting from this strategy?

Jonathan Ma - Post #14 10/26/12 12:53 PM3,035 REP -

@Reno, does that mean you're voting for Johnson just to add one more vote to his popular vote numbers?

RenoChazz - Post #15 10/26/12 1:17 PM5,516 REP -

I was already voting for Gary Johnson, but now I have more incentive to get to the polls and maybe convince others. Though, if I lived in a state where votes don't matter like California, where the outcome is already known why not cast a vote to win some money? I'm very libertarian though, voted for Ron Paul in the primaries, and will vote for Gary in the National.

Jonathan Ma - Post #16 10/26/12 1:40 PM3,035 REP -

Haha, I recently posted on facebook:

"Saw an episode of Mythbusters in which President Obama says something along the lines of "I'm a fan of Mythbusters. You guys blow stuff up. That's cool."

Yup, I'll take Obama's "Mythbusters is cool" over Romney's "binders full of women"."

My wife and kids are huge fans of Mythbusters.

eloozhun - Post #17 10/26/12 3:00 PM2,401 REP -

Why does this have so many posts and views lmao

RenoChazz - Post #18 10/27/12 2:13 PM5,516 REP -

That didn't take long, looks like 5dimes moved this line to where it should be, -400. Good luck to all those that hopped aboard while the getting was good.

RenoChazz - Post #19 10/29/12 2:00 PM5,516 REP -

Wow today it's all the way up to -500. Can't say I'm surprised, I'm expecting anywhere from 2% to 6% of the vote going to Gary. Beating .499% seems a little too easy.

RenoChazz - Post #20 11/6/12 7:25 AM5,516 REP -

Here we are on election day and it's now −600. Good luck everyone.

RenoChazz - Post #21 11/6/12 11:52 PM5,516 REP -

http://www.politico.com/2012-election/map/#/President/2012/

I'm calling it. With most of the vote in GJ hit over 1% in almost every state but a few where he was still above 0.5, and even hit in the upper 3% 2 states

*Stats used on this page under the "Picks by Pick Monitor Handicappers" section are stats for the past 12 months in all sports. eP stands for Effective Profit, a figure that adjusts for average bet size such that you can compare two handicappers who risk $100 per game and $500 per game, respectively. eWP stands for Effective Winning Percentage which answers the hypothetical question "what would this handicapper's win % be if he played exclusively -105 lines?"

Gary Johnson popular vote over 0.49999% (1) vs Gary Johnson popular vote under 0.49999% (0)

Gary Johnson Popular Vote Over 0.49999% Vs Gary Johnson Popular Vote Under 0.49999% 11-6-2012