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Sharp Handicappers

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Las vegas sports books make improvements every year to protect themselfs from sharp bettors (wise guys). The days of the wise guys are long gone. Sharp bettors or wise guys still make money, but sports books are not as generous as they used to be. There's certain websites that use the old time wise guys for commercial purposes to try and sell their sports picks. This sales pitch strategy is excellent, and I'm sure their misleading hype serves them well.

Las Vegas sports consultants Inc. supplies the major casinos the opening lines. The major casinos have their own consultants if minor ajustments are needed. The biggest concerns are, keeping the illegal bookies around the country from throwing off bets. So they have techniques to deal with vegas runners. Casinos have no problem taking bets from good handicappers who are considered conservative bettors. In my estimation, if you can win 50% of your games on this website, you will profit every year if you live in Las Vegas. According to my estimations, I would have a 5% greater win record verus 5% less loss record, if I had access to the best spreads available in Vegas. I'm talking about games with point spreads. My record with a point spread is 190 wins -177 losses. With the 5% differential, my record would be 208 wins- 159 losses. My estimation is, one out of every twenty games, a loser turns into a winner if you live in vegas. I'm sure my calculations are wrong, but I can't wait to hear the disagreement.

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Thats not true. Sure Vegas has sharpened it's teeth as far as the accuracy of lines go. To say the days of the wise guy are gone, is something you should think about.

There are plenty of people making a living off of betting on sports. The wise guys of this generation are never heard of.
Take the best handicappers on this site for example. These aren't the best in the world. Since there are better handicappers, you have yourself the wise guys. People that run over their book over a long period are "sharp".
If someone maintained a 59% winning percentage on spreads over a long period, that would be a wise guy in my opinion.
It does happen, although they aren't on the surface, they are out there.

Some of the greatest handicappers probably don't even place bets, they have others to do it for them.
No one knows who they are because, they don't want anyone too. They want to make their money behind the scenes and unnoticed.

You're right on the money with assumption that living in Vegas would have lead to more wins. Better lines auotmatically will lead to some extra wins, or a higher bankroll due to less juice.

I read a lot of your posts and for anyone reading this message, don't be selfish. Click like on Tuckers post. He should be getting paid for the overall quality of his posts. Trying to help out as best I can buddy.



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Great Stuff Tucker. But I do have say the Runners and Wiseguys do still have a great impact on the books, even in Vegas. The Wiseguys have evolved as well and employ different methods for "getting down". Many times when the Books are 1-sided by Public money they still rely on the Wiseguys to help them balance their action and limit their liability on those games. I do agree with your assessment of how getting the best numbers will increase your bottom line. That is why I always preach to clients or actually anyone who wagers, that you have to have multiple places to wager. A good example was last Sunday, the line here on the Bengals total was 42.5 so I received a Loss since the game fell 43, but at another Monitor and with my Book I received 43 and got the Push. A few of those games over the course of a month can make a HUGE difference in your record as well as your $$$$.
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two words.... points shaving
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honestly, we are like the bottom feeders. the real ones making all the money are behind the scenes....Don King m'fers!
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my grandfather used to know mobsters, and if they told u something was a lock, u bet ur entire mother fucking mortgage on it cause that shit was a lock! no matter how far fetched it seemed.

Just like wallstreet and everything else, insiders make all the money, we eat the crumbs from the table :)
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Archway, I'm hoping to live in vegas by next summer. Hopefully sooner. I have a few obstacles to deal with, so I'm keeping my fingers crossed.
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Good Luck Tucker. Hopefully things will work out for you.
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but tucker, will u be able to deal with the stress of your income being based on this? i mean if u have been doing if for 10 years or something and u know that u will win, but if u are new, u have no idea the outcome, plus u have to bet a lot of money to actually make any money in vegas, just some things to think about, not trying to discourage you.
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tucker, first you say that sportsbooks are becomming harder, then you say you want to make a living off this.

Also you say that if you win 50% of your games you will profit in vegas, but you are forgetting vig, if you win 50% you will lose money like everyone else and at any rate close to this you will have to bet lots of money to make any kind of money, just saying from my experience
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I'm not moving to vegas to get rich off of sports betting. My bets will be small. There's a lot more things for me to do in vegas. I would have a good time watching the games in the casinos along with lounge shows, buffets, and walking around looking for lines and spreads. I would be more active living in vegas than where I live now.

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ok, i gotcha, good luck
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As long as GOD(Billy Walters) and his powerful network are around, there will be wiseguys. In fact, books in vegas now recognize that there are more messenger bettors around than ever before and that number continues to increase. Furthermore, books are relying on advantage players to help them if they get sided and it is not out of the norm for books to call their advantage players and ask them to make courtesy bets. In return for this "favor", the books will continue to take action from them and may be even increase their limits. With Cantor taking over most of Vegas books, more and more syndicates are being represented in Las Vegas due to all of the problems happening offshore. The reason is Cantor believes the wise guys HELP them in the long run. And the wise guys believe they can still get the best of it when it comes to the line, whether it be at the open, mid week, or steaming late.
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Tucker; I am destroying them in baseball.
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A guy named bryan leonard did an interview last week complaining about not being able to get bets down. Maybe I'm misunderstanding what he's saying or maybe he's full of boloney. If you google (rants of the week with bryan leonard) you will see him talking about problems with sharp bettors getting money down.
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Tucker, some books won't take a bet from someone they deem "Sharp". At least that is what I have heard, I have never actually seen it in person. I do know some casino's won;t let you play Blackjack if they think you are counting cards. It is kind of the same thing I believe. I have had a couple Local Books cut me off for winning too much, so I believe that it could happen.

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It's more likely to happen at offshore, they'll cut you off quick. I've never heard of it happening in Nevada. In nevada it's just hard to get down super large amounts.
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Tucker, the book that I am sure Bryan is talking about is Leroys, a big player in the state of Nevada which operates on a small time scale. They have betting kiosks in sports bars all over the state in which you can enter your account number, sign in, and you can get a bet in right before the game starts. They are also subcontracted by small scale casinos to run that casinos sports book. However, Leroys, would rather shut off sharps and keep cashing in on recreational players betting into bad numbers. So dont misconstrue what Bryan was ranting about. There are just a few books that are like Leroys. Most books in Vegas take sharp action because it indeed helps them in the long run especially during football season. Cantor gaming is looking to take a stronghold in Las Vegas by acquiring the rights to run major sportsbooks. They started at the M resort, acquired rights to the Hard Rock, Tropicana, Cosmopolitan, the Plaza downtown and are now working on acquiring the whole state for that matter. They also just acquired the rights to the Sands casinos. Sharp Players are looking forward to Cantor taking control, at least my circle of sharp players are.
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I think that he was saying if he wins 50% of his bets now (with access to only one set of numbers) that by having access to the numerous books in here in Vegas he will be able to overcome the vig & turn a profit. I agree with him.

I think careful shopping around for lines should be able to add about 5% to win percentage for the typical bettor. Out of every 20 games I would guess I get at least one loss turn into a push and one push turn into a win. Add in some losses that turn into wins & it really adds up.

Maybe someone out there has some good data on this & could post it here. I used to keep detailed spreadsheets where I could have figured it out but keeping up with the spreadsheets took as much time as the handicapping.

If someone used a local bookie & only had access to bet on game day, imagine how much a 50% winning bettor could gain if moved to Vegas & got improved lines by betting games early/late in week depending on direction of line move? I can say for a fact that not a week goes by during football season where I don't get an extra win/push instead of push/loss by betting either early in week or just before game time.

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Anthony Redd, part of Budin's group, agrees with Bryan Leonard. Here is his thoughts on Vegas
http://www.sportsinfo.com/content.aspx?modulename=videoviewer73&v=uHHiktT2Ol0&feature=channel_page
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