I don't see these teams playing a very defensive game, and the number 42 is generous IMO. Take the OVER and enjoy the game. Good luck everyone!
Kansas City Chiefs 20 vs New England Patriots 27Kansas City Chiefs At New England Patriots - AFC Divisional Playoffs - NFL Football - 1/16/16 4:35PM Saturday, 1/16
1/15/16 11:43pm Risked 5.4 units to win 5
1/13/16 6:24pm Risked 3.21 units to win 3
View all picks and line moves
Kansas City Chiefs Vs New England Patriots 1-16-2016 541 views
There's gonna be close to 3-5 inches of snow on the ground. So yes, 42 is generous if you're willing to take the under.
Unsure if there will be snow. I was under the impression there would be rain and relatively high winds. These types of conditions almost always lead people to believe these games will be UNDER the posted total provided by the oddsmakers, however, there are equal opportunities for numerous mishaps on either side of the ball that could very well lead to short fields and more scoring than if weather conditions were optimal. The offenses also possess an advantage should the field be wet and winds are kept in check due to the offensive players knowing where they are going and the defense is challenged to figure out exactly where they are going. Both teams have some exceptional offensive weapons on their respective rosters, and although winds are expected to be high, weather is still as unpredictable as it gets as it pertains to accuracy. If there is snow, then I do believe it could impact more negatively regarding scoring than rain. Thank you for your response :)
Edited 1/13/16 at 3:12PM by Timothy Wynn - Grammar
I believe it is expected to be rain at this point. This weather should not have the impact of the Seattle game. At 4:30pm, the sun will just be going down at kickoff. I agree with Tim here and really like the over 41.5. KC will not be able to shut out Gronk and co. While NE may win, I like KC +5.
Temp should be around 42 degrees with rain ending early in the day. Some sun in the afternoon. The only potential problem I see the weather causing for these 2 teams is possibly the wind. Looks like 15-25 mph NW winds, with some gusts as high as 40+ mph. http://www.weather.com/weather/5day/l/USMA0555:1:U...
The upside is that this NW wind direction appears to be closely in line with the length of the field. This means one team will have the wind to their backs, while the other will be fighting it. Not sure how this may play into the outcome, however it has to be more ideal than the wind blowing across the field. It is possible we see some long FG's especially with NE's kicker, although these will not add substantially to the game total unless they occur frequently. Totally possible we see 5 or 6 FG's from these teams to go with some TD's. Based on the Seattle/Minnesota thread and the post evo34 made with some temperature stats, it looked like high winds (over 15mph) did not have a significant impact with 1 game going over and the other game going under. Not sure how the position of the fields were laid out compared to the wind in those 2 games. I very much loved the over in this game until now. I find it hard to believe that these 2 teams will not score at least 42 points, although with high winds and gusts 40+ mph it is plausible.
The Patriots secondary is weak and can be easily exploited by KC. They like to give up the big plays, and their own team can score as well, even if they are banged up. It is very hard to stop Gronk, and there are lots of post season veterans on the NE team. I expect Bill to pull out an unusual play or two since they've had 2 weeks and it is not uncommon for this to occur in the playoffs. It was expecting a shootout with the offense that could produce the most winning. The winds may facilitate a little more running than passing. I am a little more cautious on the game total over, however I still lean this way. Good defenses at the line. If a team cannot run (or pass), they must punt. If they are punting into the wind, the kicks should be short giving the other team great field position to score. This may be a game where the two teams take turns scoring alternating quarters when they have the wind to their backs rather than fronts. I suspect that it will be much easier for 1 team to score (wind at their backs) during the 1st and 3rd quarters, with the other team more easily scoring during the 2nd and 4th quarters.
While I still lean to the game total going over especially as the number continues to drop, and still like KC +5 (although the wind situation could help NE who would be more familiar with the winds impact at this location), possibly a better play may be to make up to 4 plays, taking the team to win each quarter that has the wind to their backs in this one? Maybe see if this is the case for the first half of the game and make a halftime play on the 3rd quarter?
Good luck to you on your plays as long as they do not conflict with mine :)
Edited 1/13/16 at 8:50PM by JaneG - No reason listed.
"Chandler Jones had bad reaction to synthetic marijuana" https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/early-lead/wp/...
Must run in the family? Jon Jones had issues with Marijuana as well ...
They did put the smackdown on HOU ...defensively
I took KC early on at +4.5 and there winning record coming in is enough for me against at yesterdays dynasty and an aging Tom.
take KC and the points
The current wind speed forecast doesn't appear to be as bad as originally thought. Wind speed for most of game in mid to low teens mph, dropping as game goes on to about 8mph at end of game. Gusts mid to upper teens. KC spread and over still look good to me.
If you like NE, you may need the game total under with players banged up and either out or playing hurt (Edelman's returning, Gronk's practice this week was limited or non existent). NE may not be able to score too many TD's which means for them to win, KC would have to score less. The 2:1 ML looks good for KC, but the points should be a safer play.
New England Patriots never lost a regular season home game or playoff game when leading by 8+ points at half time since 1992 against the Miami Dolphins.
Patriots are 8-0 at home in playoffs when leading by 4+ points the end of first quarter.
Rob Gronkowski caught his 8th career touchdown pass in the playoffs. First tight end in NFL history.
Edited 1/16/16 at 6:45PM by tucker19 - No reason listed.