This season I am attempting to avoid favorites of the larger variety, but in this particular contest... -136 for a home team that is better than the visiting team is reasonable IMO.
The Ottawa Senators have enjoyed very strong recent success on home ice, winning the last 4 consecutive contests versus the Toronto Maple Leafs franchise. Austin Mathews makes his debut for the "buds", but as in most cases, teams require some time to figure out how he will work best with the players currently on the roster. There were not many off season changes to the Ottawa roster, and therefore, the team should benefit from this consistency entering this new season. I also give a slight goaltending edge to the Senators.
The big difference this evening should be in the power play and penalty killing. If the Senators can stay disciplined enough to gain the edge, or at least remain even with Toronto, as it pertains to power play opportunities, then the final result should tilt in favor of the Ottawa Senators. This can be justified historically as the head to head statistics in these categories provide a significant edge for the Senators as shown below:
Ottawa PPG = 9 PP% = 12.90 PK% = 72.73
Toronto PPG = 4 PP% = 27.27 PK% = 87.10
Take the Ottawa Senators ML -136