GUT PICK OF THE WEEK:
Take the Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5)
All I have heard all week is that Sam Darnold and the NY Jets are overhyped, the Packers and Aaron Rodgers are heaven sent, Khalil Mack is a GOD (but disappears in the second half), and the Rams are already penciled in as the NFC representatives for a Super Bowl appearance. With all this media drivel, the only QB and team that were (over)hyped as the second coming, but never legitimately challenged were Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.
You have a Pittsburgh Steelers team that was picked as a Super Bowl contender prior to the season beginning having to settle for a tie with the perennial cellar dweller Cleveland Browns, and are now already in desperate need of a win to stay in the chase with the Bengals and Ravens for the division.
Everyone is loving this! Too good to be true! I can get the mighty Chiefs as a dog against the Steelers who struggled with the Browns? Count me in!
I say count me out! I have seen this far too many times to believe the hype. The Chiefs are not as good, and the Steelers are not as in trouble as a team, as the media is spouting. The Pittsburgh Steelers are still a very well groomed and established veteran team that can bounce back and handle the business at hand like true professionals. They have shown in it in the past, and they will show it again this weekend.
I can also recount too many times where a team like the Chiefs are praised as dominant, and "impossible to beat" based on one great performance, only to crash back to earth the following week. Maybe Kansas City will remain humble and stay the focus, but they are going to be facing a very angry, back against the wall, home team, in the Steelers, who have owned them over the years when encountering them in Pittsburgh. Throw in the fact that the Steelers are very well known for making rookie QB's lives miserable, and you have a potential turnover storm looming over the Chiefs this weekend.
Kansas City has not won in Pittsburgh since 1986. There have been 6 failed attempts since, with the most recent being a 43 - 14 drubbing on October 2, 2016. Although I do not put too much confidence in these types of historical data, there are legacy match ups that seem to stand the test of time. I believe this is one of them, especially considering the consequences surrounding the results of this game for Pittsburgh.
The Steelers are a great bounce back team.
PREDICTION: Take the Steelers (-5.5)
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Kansas City Chiefs 18, Pittsburgh Steelers 35
Also see "Noise and Sports Handicapping" on my profile page for further details as it pertains to why I am selecting the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Good luck this weekend everyone!
Edited 9/14/18 at 2:59PM by Timothy Wynn - Additional information