Most likely will be a 2nd half under play on this game tomorrow. Totals are a little out of whack 1st few games but it won't continue, it never does. FG over is getting hammered in this game already so I'm sure the 2nd half total will be too high.
Los Angeles Clippers 109 vs New Orleans Pelicans 116Los Angeles Clippers At New Orleans Pelicans - NBA Basketball - 10/23/18 8:05PM Tuesday, 10/23
10/23/18 12:10pm Risked 5 units to win 4.85
10/23/18 8:37am Risked 5 units to win 4.9
View all picks and line moves
Los Angeles Clippers Vs New Orleans Pelicans 10-23-2018 260 views
what do you think of the high scoring so far in the NBA ? Do you think it will continue?
Pace is way up so yes, I think it will continue for a while. The new shot clock rule i'm sure will add some points to the average for the season. What i meant was, the market will adjust and us under players will get back to business. As of last night overs are 31-17 in all games including OT. All of the RLM's that I saw last night went under (MIN, GS, Dal, BOS, UT) so I'm not worried. Im 3-5-0 with 2H Unders so far. 2H unders will do well this season because the market will adjust there as well. One mistake under bettors make is trying to middle by taking the 2H over when a game is trending under 1H. I have had this discussion on here before. My data shows when a game is trending under more often it is more profitable to bet the under again. Bookmakers I know personally have told me how they exploit "The middler" in game trending under. I have been doing this a long time and I will tell you this, "If you want to go broke, bet favorites and overs." Better yet, let me take you action.
There is a lot of value on betting unders. I spend most of my time betting under dogs. How do you know you have a 2nd half play on under ? Do you take unders when the game is trending over because odds makes will give you value on the under ? What do you compare it to the original total of the game?
Line makers know what the O/U total is going to be before halftime starts. I know +/- what it's going to be from experience but you really don't need to know. its a market just like anything else being bought and sold. It's not uncommon for linemakers to inflate lines to persuade and sometimes provoke their customers into doing something, just like a fancy display at a department store does. I have most of my 2H plays chosen before the game starts. The way the public reacted to the 1H and FG numbers is the best indication of how i choose my plays. I have one play that is triggered on full game field goal % and one that triggers on 1H total points. I find that knowing ahead is a huge advantage so I go with full game numbers for choosing my plays. The reason I make such a big deal out of 2H plays is because my win % is right around 60% (15% ROI) and I can't pass that up. Take a look at the Cleveland/Brooklyn game tonight, see if anything jumps out at you. I can tell you right now I will probably bet the 2H under in this game. Brooklyn's off field goal % concerns me a little but all in all it works out.
See how that works. Brooklyn @ Cleveland U U U = W W W ... The numbers were inflated and the public still bet the FG and 1H over about 60/40
Edited 10/24/18 at 10:24PM by goldendd - No reason listed.