UPSET SELECTION OF THE WEEK
The Texans are 0 - 10 versus NFC opponents when on the road since 2013, and 8 - 22 in the last 30 (since 2003). Furthermore, they are 1 - 7 in the same scenario when playing teams from the NFC East since 2002.
In contrast, the Redskins have won 67% of the previous 12 games when hosting teams from the AFC since 2012, and 2 - 1 versus AFC South opponents since 2014.
The only time in history where the Houston Texans travelled to play the Washington Redskins as favorites was September 19, 2010. The Texans won this game 30 - 27. These two teams have played only 4 times since 2002; The Skins won the first two meetings 26 - 10 and 31 - 15, while the Texans defeated Washington in the subsequent two contests 30 - 27 and 17 - 6.
The line on this game has remained as consistent as any line I have seen all season long. The Texans opened as 3 point favorites, slightly dipped to 2.5 points, only to nudge back up to 3, where it is currently. Of note however, is the vigorish has decreased from a high of -115 to -102, the lowest level when Houston has been a 3 point favorite.
Houston is 3 - 2 on the road this season. The Redskins are 3 - 2 at home. The Texans have won 6 consecutive games. Washington has won 4 of their last 5 games. The Texans wins this season were against teams with a current combined record 22 - 34 this season thus far. In fact, during the Texans 6 game win streak, only one team is .500 (5 - 5), the rest are 4 - 5, 4 - 5, 3 - 7, 3 - 6, and 3 - 6. The Skins 6 wins this season have been no more impressive, defeating teams with a current combined record 21 - 33 - 1, with their one impressive victory over the Carolina Panthers (6 - 3). The other 5 teams are 2 - 7, 4 - 5 - 1, 4 - 5, 2 - 7, and 3 - 6.
- Here is a list of the following teams they have both played this season, and the results:
- NY Giants 27 - Houston 22 / Washington 20 - NY Giants 13
- Dallas 16 - Houston 19 / Dallas 17 - Washington 20
- Houston 37 - Indianapolis 34 / Washington 19 - Indianapolis 43
- Why did the oddsmakers make the Texans 3 point favorites on the road in Washington?
- They believe the bettors will ride the Texans hot streak
- They believe the bettors will continue to down play the Skins success this season based on an argument that should be applied to both teams in this case; their records are not indicative of strength so much as the strength of the teams they have defeated
- The belief that the Texans defense, now healthy, will run rampant against Washington's banged up offensive line, in conjunction with their #6 run defense will stifle any hopes for Washington to score enough points to win this game
In this era, for the most part, the NFC teams are stronger than their AFC counterparts. Reminds me of the 80's & early 90's. Although Deshaun Watson is exhilerating, he is still young and trying to find his way. Alex Smith is a wiley veteran who knows how to not lose games... and being at home, in what I think will be a very close contest, perhaps decided by 3 points... I will lean on the QB that will not make mistakes versus a QB that will take risks... risks I believe the Skins defense can capitalize on and create enough short fields for Washington to find a way to win this game.
PREDICTION: Take the Washington Redskins (+135) - currently +147
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Houston Texans 20, Washington Redskins 23
Edited 11/18/18 at 11:05AM by Timothy Wynn - spelling error