2015 Tennis Betting Thread Presented By Average Tennis Better Daltonis 715 views

I have been thinking about doing a tennis thread for some time now. No time like the present to kick things off with some very average tips. I currently have the following metrics (according to Pick Monitor tennis rankings page) ROI 7.94, Units 23.91, eUnits 65.78, BTCL 58.11. I'm not double checking that these numbers are correct, I'll just trust Patrick's skills. I bet underdogs for the most part and I'm averaging +152 on my tennis bets. Most of my lager bets will often be chalk, as long as it fits within my betting parameters. This means that I capped a match at a much higher number than the odds makers have set the line. The bulk of my plays will be for 1 unit at plus money odds.

My reason for betting these matches are based on but not limited to, the following: H2H, Surface, Form, and Odds. I will throw myself under the proverbial bus and keep track of units, win or lose. Feel free to chime in if you see the play differently than myself as I'm not an expert.

2/17/15 8:00AM Maria Irigoyen vs Beatriz Haddad Maia
[909] Maria Irigoyen -155

1.00 units (risked 1.55 to win 1)

WTA chalk bet of the day: This is a bet against Maia as much as it is for Irigoyen. Maia has started off the year awful thus far on clay court. She has played in and lost in three ITF, 1st round matches and is 0-3. ITF is a lower level then the standard WTA matches. She is facing Irigoyen who is 5-1 on clay court this year. She is 2-0 against her current opponent on this very surface. She had straight set victories in 2014 & 2012. When I factor form, H2H and Odds better than -175, I must make the bet.

2/17/15 9:30AM Pablo Andujar vs Paolo Lorenzi
[522] Paolo Lorenzi +135
1.00 units (risked 1 to win 1.35)

Lorenzi currently holds a 4-3 record against his opponent on clay court. This is only part of the reason for the bet. Andujar has been just not what he once was on a clay court. He is 0-1 this year and has lost his last 3 matches against Lorenzi (2014-2013-2011) This match should be even money at best in my opinion. Too much value for me not to take a +135 on a match that I capped @-110.

2/17/15 12:45PM Nicolas Almagro vs Pablo Cuevas
[514] Pablo Cuevas +110
1.00 units (risked 1 to win 1.1)

I considered making this play 2 units, but laid off after seeing a sharp tennis better on the opposite side as me. Almagro was not healthy last year and did not play very much. I believe he is not quite in shape yet this year for him to best Cuevas. They played once already this year and Cuevas was the underdog winner. I'll stick with the plus money odds, even though I think it will be a close match.

Edited 2/16/15 at 10:48PM by Daltonis - Tail accordingly as I'm not that good. LOL

2/17/15 6:45AM David Guez vs Jeremy Chardy
[133] David Guez +330

1.00 units (risked 1 to win 3.3)

Adding David Guez as the line just became available on 5dimes. David Guez is a solid longshot @ +330 and I know why. He is not on the same level as Jeremy Chardy. Having said that, Cahrdy is not a good indoor court player. Chardy is just 72-62 lifetime on the indoor surface. He has faced competition better than Guez without a doubt. David Guez is a solid indoor player with 3 good upset wins already this season. He has won @ odds of +226, +181 and +172 and is 8-3 on indoor courts this year. He is also 2-0 against Chardy on this surface, albeit those wins were quite some years ago. These odds are just too good to pass up @ +330.


Recap and analysis of todays bets.

Today was not a crash and burn day, more like a crash and singe. Pablo Cuevas was the only bright spot winning 2-1 against Niclolas Almagro.

David Guez went 3 sets against Chardy and had his chances to pull off the nice upset @ +330. Chardy was just the better and more experienced player today. I feel I capped this match correctly after looking over the stats. If I can get a dog of this size into a 3rd set, then I feel like it just came down to a few spots within the match that just went the wrong way.

Paolo Lorenzi's match against Pablo Andujar also went 3 sets. This was another match that could have gone in either direction. Paolo played well and won the first set and then fell apart in the 2nd set. He regrouped and had his chance in the 3rd but just could not get it done.

Maria Irigoyen was the disappointing play of the day without a doubt. She looked and played like she did not want to be there and got pummeled 6-1 6-1. I believe she was just there to make her appearance and get out of dodge.

1-3 on the day for -2.45 units

2/18/15 5:45AM Karolina Pliskova vs Ana Ivanovic
[721] Karolina Pliskova +180

1.00 units (risked 1 to win 1.8)

Karolina Pliskova +180 is just too good to pass up against Ana Ivanovic. I capped this match @ +125 for Pliskova and had to make a play on this match. This will not be an easy upset for Pliskova as Ana Ivanovic is one of the best female players going today. Pliskova and Ivanovic have played on hard court against each other one time, with Pliskova winning in straight sets. This bet is being played mainly because of the good odd's I'm getting.

2/18/15 4:00PM Blaz Rola vs Joao Souza
[517] Blaz Rola +125

1.00 units (risked 1 to win 1.25)

I could not pass up plus money odds on Rola Blaz. They have played 3 times in the last 2 years with Blaz winning all 3. I believe these odds are only skewed because of Blaz's 2-5 record on the year. He is not a good hard court player and is 1-4 on that surface this year. He is a much better clay court player and prefers this surface. I don't think that this is an easy match by any means, just really like the plus money odds.

YTD 1-3 -2.45 units

2/19/15 4:00PM Fabio Fognini vs Pablo Andujar
[509] Fabio Fognini -155

2.00 units (risked 3.1 to win 2)

Fognini has not started the year off great @ 3-8. He is not a good hard/indoor court player and this is the reason for his upside down record at the moment. He will be playing on a clay court against Pablo Andujar @ 4:00pm EST tomorrow. Fognini is 4-0 lifetime against Andujar playing on a clay court, including a win last season. This is why I'm willing to lay the juice and bet on the favorite Fognini @-155. This is a 2 unit play and the line has shifted up to -165 at the moment. I would still play it at the current number, but not much higher.

YTD 2-4 -1.65 units


The thing with Fognini is that hes italian, and you know how to they behave when things are going bad, I ve seen him give up a full set just because one bad call of the ref in one single game that he lose. Hope everything runs good with him for this match.

The volatile and unpredictable nature of Italian tennis star Fabio Fognini has been exposed yet again, this time at the Shanghai Masters


Outbursts cost Fabio Fognini $27,500

LONDON -- Fabio Fognini of Italy was fined a total of $27,500 by Wimbledon on Wednesday for outbursts during his first-round victory earlier in the week.

Fognini, who is seeded 16th at the Grand Slam tournament, was docked twice for unsportsmanlike conduct -- one penalty carrying a $20,000 price tag, the other $5,000 -- and lost another $2,500 for what was termed a visible obscenity.

The punishment was announced two days after Fognini's first-round match.

Fognini can appeal.

"They have rules here, different from other (tournaments), that need to be followed," Fognini said after beating Tim Puetz of Germany 2-6, 6-4, 7-6 (6), 6-3 in the second round Wednesday.

Edited 2/18/15 at 8:15PM by parleymoney - No reason listed.

2/24/15 5:00AM Marsel Ilhan vs Alexander Zverev
[109] Marsel Ilhan -108

1.00 units (risked 1.08 to win 1)

I think Marsel Ilhan takes this match in 3 sets. Zverez beat Ilhan playing on an indoor court on the 16th of this month. This match will be played on a standard hard court and I think this will be the difference. Marsel is a solid hard court player with a overall record of 249-116. Zverev's overall hardcourt record is only 15-18. I believe the comfort on this service will make the difference for Marsel in this match.

2/24/15 1:00PM Kenny De Schepper vs David Guez
[1414] David Guez +150

1.00 units (risked 1 to win 1.5)

I have this match at near even odds. David Guez is 3-0 against De Schepper H2H and should not be this big of an underdog. Guez beat him in 3 sets on 2/16 and it was on the same surface. I think this match could go either way and I could not pass on the +150 odds on a guy that should have a decent chance of winning.

YTD 3-4 +.35 units



2/24/15 10:00AM Sloane Stephens vs Johanna Larsson
[934] Johanna Larsson +180

0.56 units (risked 0.56 to win 1)

I think Sloan Stephens is going to ease back into tournament play as she has not played in over a month. This is a good time to jump on the +180 underdog Larsson. She beat Sloan in the US Open last year and should not be at this high of a price. I'm playing it safe and only risking 0.56 to win 1.

2/24/15 10:00AM Ivan Dodig vs Steve Johnson
[522] Steve Johnson -116
1.00 units (risked 1.16 to win 1)

The line on Steve Johnson should be about -130/-135 IMO. I don't think Dodig is quite healthy yet after being injured most of last year. Dodig is also not a strong hard court player with a career record of 82-82. Steve Johnson really came into his own on this surface last year going 31-16. Getting Johnson @ this price is a must bet for me.

YTD 3-4 +.35 UNITS

2/25/15 8:45AM Zarina Diyas vs Andrea Petkovic
[713] Zarina Diyas +115

1.00 units (risked 1 to win 1.15)

This is a really good spot and good odds for Zarina Diyas. She has already beaten Petkovic this year on the same surface and is playing some decent tennis at the moment. They played on 2/17 and the odds were almost identical to this match. Petkovic is just 1-4 hard court this year and is not really a good player on this surface the last 4 years. (33-32) Diyas has been playing solid tennis and is 9-5 on hard courts so far this year. She has really gotten better the last few years and prefers playing on this surface. I would actually have her(Diyas) as a slight favorite in this match and could not pass up +money odds.

YTD 6-5 +2.35 units

10:00PM Kei Nishikori vs David Ferrer
[501] Kei Nishikori -207

5.00 units (risked 10.35 to win 5)

I hated to lay these high odds, but still felt safe doing so. Nishikori has owned Ferrer the last 5 times they have played one another. They played on the same surface in the Australian open and Nishikori won in straight sets. (6/3 6/3 6/3) I don't play many 5 unit picks, but could not pass this one up. Nishikori has come into his own on this surface the last year or so. He is currently ranked 5th and playing some decent tennis. Ferrer is ranked 9th and is playing some good tennis as well. Ferrer's only loss on this surface this year was to Nishikori. I feel this can be a tight match, but still feel like anything under -300 is a good bet for Kei......Good luck.....

YTD 6-6 +1.35 units


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