2021 - Dapper Dan Picks - Week 8 42 views


WEEK 7 RESULTS: 7-3 (+4.34 UNITS)

SEASON YTD: 40-22 (+17.08 UNITS) (65%)

Week 8: (more to come tmrw morning)
Colorado State -3 (-115)
Kansas St/T. Tech Over 60.5 (-105)
NC State -3 (-105)
Boston College +6.5 (-107)
Pittsburgh -3 (-115)

Week 8:
Colorado State -3 (-115) Risking 1.15 to win 1 units
Head Coach Steve Addazio knows how to coach defense and it’s showing in his second year after moving to Colorado State. He is paired up with Chuck Heater again who is a very experienced defensive coordinator who has a long history with Steve including stints at UF from 09-10 where they were ranked 5th in ‘09 in ypp allowed and 13th in ‘10. Then they moved on together to Temple in ‘11-12 where they had a good defense but then they parted ways in 2013 when Steve went to Boston College, where defense was the strength of the program for many years. It all starts in the trenches, at the defensive line where they are one of the highest ranked d-line’s in most categories ranking 10th in line yards, 20th in opportunity rate, 4th in stuff ranking, and 16th in sack rate and only allowing 2.2 yards per rush(ranked #1 and held Iowa to 54 rushing yards!) . A huge mismatch on paper for this Utah State offensive line that has been struggling, ranking 126th in line yards, 120th in opportunity rate, 49th in power ranking, 126th in stuff ranking, and averaging 3.9 yards per rush (ranked 80th). They will have to get all their yardage through the air but Colorado State’s secondary has been no slouch either ranking #14th in yards per pass, #13 in completion % allowed, and ranked 31st according to PFF. They are also 4th in 3rd down conv % and 22nd in red zone scoring % allowed so their defense has been solid no matter where you look. Although their offense hasn’t been as lively, they should get going against a Utah State defense that has been horrible by the numbers this season allowing 5.9 yards per rush, ranking 122nd!. And Colorado State loves to run the ball 60% of the time so they should rack up the yards on the ground in this matchup. Utah State’s defense is ranked poorly in every area, ranking 121st overal, 113th in the pass rush, 109th in the secondary, and 113th against the run. I usually don’t take Friday Night sh*t conferences games, but I like this one as CSU struggled early (even I called them out against Stanford) but have bounced back nicely - especially on defense.

Kansas St./T. Tech Over 60.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Beautiful little BIG 12 Noon Shootout! All the numbers agree and weather looks clear except for some winds but I think both teams will move the balls regardless. Both defenses are struggling, especially Texas Tech’s who ranks in the bottom of most FEI ranks. Kansas State’s offense is much better with Skylar Thompson back from injury although they ran into a tough Iowa State defense last week and only put up 20 points, I expect both teams to easily get 30 this week. By PFF standards, Kansas State’s defense has definitely taken a step back this year as they rank 91st overall, 93rd in coverage, and 93rd in run defense. Texas Tech’s 29th overall ranking offense should have a big day against them. Texas Tech defense gives up a ton of big plays, ranking #115th in long scrimmage plays allowed over 30+ yards. Although Kansas State’s defense has been good at stopping the big play (ranking 10th in the nation in allowed) - Texas Tech offense has tons of explosive plays ranking 13th in scrimmage plays over 30 yards. Both defenses rank in the bottom 5% of the league in 3rd down conversion % allowed, and red zone scoring % allowed. Kansas State’s offense is middle of the pack in 3rd downs and RZ scoring (but played two games with Skylar) and Texas Tech;s offense is excellent on 3rd down ranking 10th and 19th in red zone scoring. Neither defensive line has been effective at applying pressure and we have great kickers on both sides as Kansas State’s kicker has hit 83% and Texas Techs has hit every kick. Oh Did I mention these two teams can’t tackle? Kansas State ranks 93rd in tackling and Texas Tech ranks 109th in tackling. So many reasons to love this play. Enjoy this shootout.

NC State -3 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
This write-up pains me to write as I sip from my Miami Hurricanes coffee mug. But the numbers are too far tipped in NC State's favor for me to pass up on this one. NC States’ offense, across all categories in PFF, ouranks Miami’s in EVERY category, SIGNIFICANTLY, and by an average of 63 ranks (WHAT!). Miami’s defense is in the bottom 15% of every category with their highest ranking of 89th in the pass rush. NC State’s defense is in the top 10% of almost every category (except Pass rush) but they rank 8th overall, 10th in coverage, and 5th in run defense. In tackling - another huge advantage as Miami has forgotten how to tackle ranking 128th in the nation and NC State ranks 6th. FEI rankings show more of the same as NC State’s offense outranks Miami’s defense by an average of 30 ranks across all categories. As Miami’s offense has struggled at times, the FEI mismatch on defense is even bigger as NC State’s defense outranks Miami’s by an average of 57 ranks across all categories. NC State also has a top 10 defensive line, ranking 2d in line yards, 7th in opportunity rate, 6th in power ranking, and 1st in stuff ranking. Miami will struggle in short yardage situations. I only bet against Miami once in the last few years, and that was last year's bowl game against Okie State. Okie State came out with a huge lead but then the gambling gods made it a close game in an attempt to smite me for betting against my own team - but Okie State prevailed.. Hopefully the gambling gods let the game play out like the numbers say they should and no weird juju happens. (I will spend the winnings on only good things I promise) This line is definitely fishy by the way but I'm going to chalk it up as all the Miami money that comes in every week regardless if they’re good or not, they say we got lotta drug money down here it's probably that being spent on the evil gambling.

Boston College +6.5 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units
Bought this to 7 with my bookie but use PickMonitor to track all my lines and they don't have that ability yet. Love getting this many points with MUCH superior defense. I talked about this BC defense a lot last week as they cashed that nice little under for us last week - although their offense struggled against a tough NC state defense and they abandoned the run game only running 6 times in the 2nd half. They should NOT have the same issues against a Louisville defense that has been awful all year long. Louisville defense ranks 100th overall in PFF, 118th in the pass rush, 59th in coverage, 110th in run defense, and 70th in tackling. Boston College prefers to run since Jurkovec went down and they should run all over this Louisville defensive line, who doesn't have one player over 300 lbs. Louisville’s defensive line ranks in the bottom 10% of almost all line categories and they have given up 4.5 yards per rush (ranking 88th) BC’s defense also matches up well as they don’t blitz much and get after the passer which is a recipe for disaster against Malik Cunningham. I'm not too worried that Malik torched them last season as they only won by 7 in that one and Jeff Hafley is a great coach and will make adjustments and their defense is much better than it was last year. Louisville hasn’t beat any of their FBS opponents by more than 7 points this season as their defense can’t stop anyone and there is no reason why they should beat BC by more than 7.

Pittsburgh -3 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
We are going back to our boys at Pitt. Clemson just not the same, sorry limited time for write-ups this week and don’t wanna spend too much time on this one as I’ve talked a lot about Pitt and Clemson is clearly being overvalued this season and no-where near the effectiveness of the last few years - and it’s all in the numbers.


Week 8 Adds:

Syracuse +3.5 (-105) 1.5x

Syracuse ML (+150) .5x

Oklahoma St./ Iowa State Under 47 (-104)

South Carolina/Texas AM Under 45 (-105)

Utah -3 (-105)

Week 8 adds:

Syracuse +3.5 (-105) Risking 1.57 units to win 1.5 units

Syracuse ML (+150) Rirsking .5 units to win .75 units

Favorite play of the week. Decided to do 1.5x and then extra .5 on the ML. If you look at V. Tech’s game log and PFF ranks you will see a downward trend over the season, culminating in last week's 28-7 blowout against Pitt. Pitt’s not even a good running team and they ran for 208 yards on Vtech and held V.Tech to under 100 rushing yards and 3.21 yards per rush, an ongoing trend this season as the Hokies are averaging only 3.51 yards per carry. This Syracuse team can run damn well, ranking 9th in the nation according to PFF (and ran for 165 yards on 30 carries last week against CLEMSON!) and the same mismatch in the trenches can be seen on both sides of the ball. Syracuse's offensive line outranks Vtechs defensive line by an average of 40 ranks across all categories. Syracuse's defensive line outranks Vtechs offensive line by an average of 47 ranks across all categories. The biggest mismatch is in the pass rush as Vtech’s offensive line ranks 100th in sack % - and Syracuse ranks 17th in sack %. Syracuse is ranked 8th in TFLs this season and they should get a handful against Vtech who ranks 60th in TFL allowed. Burmeister should be getting all types of pressure and he doesn't have much of an arm and currently ranks 168th in passing according to PFF. His receivers don’t help him out either as they rank 85th in the league, according to PFFl. They really don’t have any sort of identity on offense and rank 92nd overall. WE also have a strong mismatch in special teams as Syracuse ranks 14th in the nation and V.Tech ranks 61st. Their SOS is pretty evenly matched yet according to line stats and PFF we have huge advantages so we take the dog as the public perception of a big name school Vtech but since Fuente took over and had a great first year, they have been on a downward trend the last 5 years and I wouldn’t be surprised if they finish this season worse than they did last season at 5-6. (SHOULDA STAYED OUT THE POWER 5) LETS GO CUSE!

Oklahoma St./ Iowa State Under 47 (-104) Risking 1.04 units to win 1 units

As I match-up each team's offenses to their opponents defenses to their corresponding stat categories - I have my spreadsheet numbers light up RED for defensive advantages and GREEN for offensive advantages and this matchup lights up RED in every spreadsheet and stat I compare. At the line of scrimmage - Oklahoma State’s offense is out-ranked by Iowa State's strong defensive line across all categories by an average of 47 ranks. Iowa State’s offensive line as well by an average of 43 ranks across all categories. According to PFF both defensives have strong advantages as Iowa State is ranked 17th and Okie State ranked 12th in overall defense. Both have been great at applying pressure as Iowa State ranks #7th in sack% and Okie State ranks 16th in sack %. Both defenses are Top 15 defenses in most FEI categories where the offenses are just middle of the pack. Both defenses are great on 3rd down and in the red zone with Okie State ranking 6th in 3rd down conv % and 44th in the red zone. Iowa State is ranked 23rd on 3rd down and 20th in the red zone. Okie State prefers to run 65% of the time but Iowa State’s front is one of the best in the nation with only allowing 3 yards per carry to its opponents. They rank 21st in run defense and 13th in tackling and is the strength of this defense. Okie State’s defense has only allowed 3 yards per carry too. Iowa State doesn’t give up any big plays as they rank #1st in opponents 30+ yard plays allowed, and surprisingly, Okie State ranks 41st on defense in LSP (long scrimmage plays) allowed. Neither offense is explosive, with Okie State ranking 119th in long scrimmage plays over 30 yards, and Iowa State ranks 51st. Iowa State should rack up some TFL’s as both defenses are in the upper half of the league in TFLs and Okie State’s offense has given up a lot of TFLs ranking 103rd in TFL’s allowed. Iowa State loves long slow methodical drives as they rank 33rd in TOP % at 52% but rank 100th in plays per game. Purdy, although a seasoned veteran, has definitely struggled over the years against his tougher competition and this year especially. Oklahoma State also has 12 guys recently listed on their injury report - all on the offensive side of the ball - so they will be thin. Originally I had Iowa State circled for this game but was shocked by the -7 number. How many times do you see a Top 10 ranked team an underdog by that many points? Think it will be very low scoring and the bookies think so too as the number is set pretty damn low but I still like it.

South Carolina/Texas AM Under 45 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units

Will South Carolina get any points in this matchup? Before their entire offensive backfield got injured they had horrible numbers. How good can all of their backups be? Starting QB Doty got hurt last game so in comes career backup senior Zeb Noland who has only seen a few starts from injuries and was benched back at Iowa State in 2018 when Brock Purdy took over and hasn’t seen any action since then (3 years!) . Not only that but 4 of their top 5 leading rushers on the season are out or listed as questionable (WILD!). Their offensive line is in the bottom 10% of almost all categories so they won’t get any help there and rank 105th in sack% allowed. They rank 104th in pass blocking and 67 in run blocking. They will have lots of trouble blocking this Texas AM pass rush that ranks 36th in sack%. South Carolina’s offense ranks in the bottom 10% of almost all line categories and are facing a defensive line that is ranked in the top 15% of almost all categories. Texas AMs offense does struggle in pass protection as was evident in the Arkansas game and they rank 75th in pass blocking. That is the biggest strength of this South Carolina team as they rank 2nd in the pass rush (According to PFF)! Both teams have been under teams on the season going 2-5 situationally so the number is low. As long as Texas AM doesn’t up over 35 points themselves I think we’re in good shape and I’m sure Texas AM will want to rest up as they have 10 players of their own listed on the injury report and have Auburn and Ole Miss on deck so they will keep it bland and milk the clock in a game where they are favored by 20.

Utah -3 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units

Wow, quite the surprise for this program as we all expected Charlie Brewer to raise the stakes to the next level but he turned out to be a total bust and left the program after being benched in the 3rd game and Cameron Rising rose from the ashes and led the team to 3 huge wins beating Washington State, USC, and Arizona State. Cameron Rising has been superb, completing 65% of his paases for 7.4 yards per pass, 9 TDs, 2 INTS. He is ranked 39th in passing according to PFF, and can also do damage with his legs. He has a run game to support him averaging 5.5 yards per carry ranking 12th in the nation. Although Oregon State has only allowed opponents to run for 3.6 yards against them (ranked 38th) It hasn’t been against good running teams and are actually ranked 98th in run defense according to PFF. Oregon States 3rd down defense is a joke - allowing opponents to convert 52% of the time, ranking 126th. Utah’s offensive line struggled early in pass blocking but that is not a strength of this Oregon State team as their pass rush ranks 102nd in PFF. We also have a strong advantage in tackling as Oregon State ranks 119th in the league and Utah is just middle of the pack. In FEI Utah’s offense outranks Oregon State's defense by 41 ranks and that includes Brewer’s shitty games so if you look at the FEI with just Rising starting its probably a much bigger mismatch. All these numbers where Utah has the advantage as well as the stronger SOS as they rank 15th in Sagarin’s and Oregon State ranks 54th. Utah is also one of the least penalized teams, ranking 12th in penalties per play and Oregon State one of the most - ranking 89th in penalties per play. I also like how Utah is 2-4 ATS to date and Oregon State is 4-2 ATS. Another -3 fav and always buy down to -2.5 if you can for under -125 I think its worth it in most cases and since I’m not buying on pickmonitor I’m sure one or two of these 3 point favorites will push, ha.


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