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2021 - Week 10 114 views

DAPPER DAN PICKS:

WEEK 9 RESULTS: 8-4 (+3.73 UNITS)

SEASON YTD: 52-32 (+18.64 UNITS) (62%)

Week 10:

CMU/W. Mich. Under 64.5 (-103)

Sorry fella’s no time for write-up as we got two hours til gametime and I have a busy evening. I just finished organizing all the numbers for this week’s games and this UNDER stuck out very nicely. That combined with the weather should be a nice opportunity for an under in this rivalry matchup.

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Week 10:

Utah -9 (-108)

Wake Forest +2.5 (-103)

Ole Miss -9.5 (-105)

Aub/TexAM under 50 (-105)

Penn State -10 (-105)

NC State -2.5 (-115)

Iowa -12 (-108)

Kentucky +1 (-109)




Week 10:

Utah -9 (-108) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units

Utah has been great this season since Rising took over like I mentioned in my last write-up in week 8 where we took them (where they let us down and were outscored 10-28 in 2nd half) He has opened up their run game as he’s a great passer who can also run periodically as he’s the 2nd leading rusher on the team and averaging 7.89 yards per carry the handful of times he does take off during the games - usually in broken down plays. The offensive line has really improved, last week not giving up a sack and rushing for 290 total yards on 44 carries averaging 6.59 yards per carry against UCLA who had one of the best rush defenses in the PAC 12 (ok not saying much). Unlike UCLA, Stanford has one of the WORST rush defenses in the league, let alone the PAC 12. The mismatch at the line of scrimmage is quite evident, with Utah’s offensive line outranking Stanford by an average of 85 ranks! Utah really does their damage on standard downs, ranking 2nd in the league - a place where the Stanford defensive line is horrible ranking 125th. In situations when Utah needs 4 yards on the ground, they get the job done ranking 8th in opportunity rate - a place where Stanford’s defense almost ALWAYS gives up yards for first down with a 128th ranked opportunity rate. Stanford’s offensive line has been struggling too ranking in the bottom 10% of almost all line categories and although Utah’s defensive line hasn't been great - they still outrank Stanford's poor offensive line by an average of 40 ranks across all categories. They are averaging 3.34 yards per carry and were held to under 75 yards in 5 of their 8 games. They also struggle in pass protection, ranking 99th in sack%, an area where this Utah defense has been above average ranking #39th in the nation. Stanford is really banged up, and their best player on offense and starting QB, Tanner McKee, may even sit out and will be playing through injury if he does suit up. The WR corps has a number of questionable leading guys who have been sitting out the last few games and will most likely be in this game too. Utah has also been the much more disciplined team ranking #14th in penalties per play where Stanford ranks #88th. If you look at common opponents, Utah has beat every common opponent by double digits and Stanford has lost to 3 out of 4 of their common opponents (two by double digits). Utah is definitely a first half team so I would consider taking the 1st half line (PickMonitor doesn’t offer) and team total over if you're really looking for action this Friday Night! I got this at -7 (-125) at my bookie as my first play of the week, but sadly I didn’t lock into pickmonitor as I couldn't buy the half so I wanted to see and look now at 9 but I still love based off the numbers provided above.

Wake Forest +2.5 (-103) Risking 1.03 units to win 1 units

Ahhh you know I love my Wake and I’m pissed I backed UNC last week AND this has very trappish vibes with Wake Forest being undefeated and UNC at 4-4 but the market to bet UNC every week is way more saturated then Wake Forest the last few years so we’ll chalk up the value we're getting to that. Here’s the numbers to show the wrong team is favored: UNC defense has been piss poor, in every category possible and this EXPLOSIVE wake offense outranks UNC’s defense by an average of 81 ranks across all positional matchups for PFF categories!! Hartman ranks 7th in passing and their WR’s have been even better ranking 3rd and they should torch UNC who rank 87th. Wake’s defense isn’t the greatest but ranks far better at 25th according to PFF then 97th for UNC. Wake also tackles better ranking 28th, unlike UNC who ranks 88th. Wake also has a strong advantage in the red zone on both sides of the ball as that has been an area that UNC struggles ranking 57th on defense and 61st on offense in red zone scoring %. This will most likely be a shootout, and I love how we also have the much better kicker (who has hit 91% of his kicks) - opposed to UNC who has only hit 66% of his kicks. And we are the much more disciplined team ranking #22nd in penalties per play opposed to #102nd in penalties per play. I’ll take these types of numbers all day with the smaller undefeated school although the weaker schedule of Wake definitely plays a role but I think we win this matchup more often than not.

Ole Miss -9.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units

You can crunch numbers all day in this matchup but at the end of the day, you’d be comparing apples to oranges as these strength of schedule mismatches are rare but great to get behind. Naturally, Ole Miss is an SEC power 5 team with an SOS ranking 14th in the nation. Liberty, an independent, has faced NOBODY! Their most difficult opponent would be Syracuse in which they lost 24-21. Their sagarin strength of schedule is 136th! Even with such an easy schedule, Malik Willis has been running for his life as they are ranked 123rd in sack% giving up sacks on 11.8% of their passes. Sack% is the ONE area this Rebel defense excels ranking #15th in the nation. Liberty's numbers are inflated as hell from their weak schedule and I’ve already talked about Ole Miss a lot, so short write-up here but should be an easy cash. Also playing in our favor is how under-valeud Liberty has been in the market the last two years, going 9-2 ATS last year and this year they are 6-3 ATS so far this year but I think they’re being over-valued in this spot due to that.

Aub/TexAM under 50 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units

Another SEC under? Oh ya! Texas A&M offense has seen some life lately but that’s been against some of the worst defenses in the league with Missouri, South Carolina, and Alabama (ha! Fook bama) They have yet to see a front like Auburn’s who held Ole Miss, one of the most efficient offenses in the league - to 20 points. Although you won’t see the mismatch in sack%, we see a big mismatch in the PFF ranks for this Auburn defensive line as they rank 24th in the pass rush, a place that Texas AM has struggled ranking 88th in pass blocking (PFF accounts for pressure and not just sacks). Auburn’s defense ranks 14th overall, 21st in coverage, 17th against the run, and 19th in tackling - solid across the board with no weaknesses. Texas A&M’s defense has been really good where it counts, in the red zone ranking #16th and on 3rd down, ranking #22nd. They’ve held opponents to 4.6 yards per play (ranking 11th) and let’s expect to see the crappy “MR. HYDE” side of Bo Nix’s inconsistent play that typically shows himself against tougher defenses and this Texas AM is one of them. They can bring pressure (which Nix hates) ranking 28th in sack%, but their secondary is one of the best in the league only allowing 5.9 yards per pass, with a passing efficiency defense of ranking 14th. Both defenses are in the Top 25 of TFLs per game, with Auburn ranking 4th and a place where this Texas AM offense has struggled ranking 70th in TFL allowed per game. Both defenses are in the Top 25 of long scrimmage plays allowed over 30+ yards. Both defenses are in Top 25 of tackling. 3 out of the 4 last times these two teams faced off it went OVER the total (one push) but I like our chances here with the under.



Penn State -10 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units

I wouldn’t want to be in Penn State’s way after 3 straight losses with Franklin, one of the better coaches in the league on the hot seat. On the other side we have Mike Locksley, who I have rated as one of the LOWEST head coaches in the league, how is this man still a head coach? His head coaching record all time is 13-46 and 5 of those wins came this year against SH!T teams. He spent 3 years as one of Saban’s many assistants (not even an important one) and Maryland decided to bring him back to lead this team where he went 5-12 the first two years. Penn State’s offensive line has really struggled as they have only mustered up 3.4 yards per carry on the season, and rank in the bottom 10% of most line yards categories. But they should finally get some push against a Maryland defensive line that ranks in the bottom 15% of line yard categories (except sack%). If they can’t get it on the ground, they’ll get some yards through the air as Maryland ranks 76th in defensive passing efficiency, 107th in yards per pass, and 105th according to PFF. Maryland’s defense has given up a ton of big plays ranking #117th in long scrimmage plays over 30 yards allowed - a place where Penn State doesn’t give up ranking #16th on defense. Maryland’s offense has struggled to stay out of the back field as they rank 97th in TFL allowed per game, a place where Penn State’s defense ranks 51st in TFL’s. Maryland’s offense lost 2 of its best WR’s recently and they will be tested against a tough Penn State defense. We should win the turnover battle as well - as Maryland has been averaging giving away 2 per game and Penn State’s defense averages two takeaways per game. We also have a strong special teams advantage as Penn State ranks 14th and MAryland ranks 92nd. I think this number is a bit low after Penn State’s 3 game skid but they should right this ship in this matchup against this soft Maryland team.

NC State -2.5 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units

Biting on the trap where the bookies open at 4 and dropped to 2.5 in classic fashion. NC State has been the much more consistent team, especially on defense where they rank 12th overall. Their biggest strength is their defensive line who ranks 3rd in rush defense and held the dual threat QB Malik Cunningham to only 76 yards on the ground last week and completed only 40% of his passes for 219 yards. Defensive line yards stats show they average a 12th ranking across all line stats (omitting their 88th sack ranking - as talking strictly run def). FSU needs to establish their run game as there's a huge discrepancy in their yards per rush in games they won and games they lost (last week they were only able to get 1.91 yards per carry against the Clemson front). FSU’s run defense started off the season with amazing numbers, but they have quickly regressed since losing starting DT, Briggs Jr for the season allowing 5.2 yards per carry in their last 4 games. NC State is very well rounded on offense, ranking 30th overall, 21st in passing, 55th in receiving and 60th in rushing (run rank + run block rank / 2) according to PFF. They DO NOT make mistakes as they rank 1st in giveaways per game in the league, unlike FSU who averages 2 giveaways per game! I think we see the bad-side of FSU come back out against this ACC rival who beat them up by 16 points last year and have been historically under-valued in this matchup as NC State has covered 16 times since 2000 with only 3 ATS losses and one push. (All the 90’s squares are still betting FSU?)

Iowa -12 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units

Last year Iowa was up 17-0 at halftime before losing 21-20 to Northwestern, but these are two very different teams as Northwestern had 11 guys invited to NFL camps in the summer leaving them with one of the most in-experienced teams for 2021, and it’s showing in their stats. Iowa's offense that has been struggling the last two games should build some momentum against a Northwestern defense that has been GOD awful (lost a long time defensive coordinator remember). They have allowed 5.8 yards per rush (ranking #122nd), allowed 47% of 3rd downs (ranking #120th), rank 90th overall in PFF and 81st in tackling. They’ve also had a SIGNIFICANTLY easier road then Iowa to date as Iowa has had the 16th hardest SOS according to Sagarin where Northwestern’s ranks 58th. Iowa’s defense has been great despite the tough schedule. I've talked about them a lot already and have been cashing them unders but this one may just sneak over the low set total of 40 as I don’t see Northwestern defense stopping Iowa. Their secondary should feast against Northwestern’s 3rd string QB (first two got benched, they sucked so much but who knows for sure who we’ll see). Iowa’s offensive numbers aren’t the best but what do you expect having to face Wisconsin, Penn State, Iowa State and Colorado State’s (NEW POWERHOUSE) defenses. PFF shows strong advantages in every facet of the game for Iowa, except in pass blocking where Iowa has struggled protecting Petras, ranking #111th, but that’s not an area where Northwestern has been good at ranking 96th in pass rushing so let’s take all these points!

Kentucky +1 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units

So the bookies set two trap lines the last two weeks with Kentucky and I leaned them and considered taking them strongly, but laid off taking them for the better and now the bookies are setting another?! Nah, this is obviously a fake trap line based on the numbers ;-). Let’s start with PFF where Kentucky’s offense outranks Tenn’s defense by an average of 25 rank across all positional matchups. On defense, Kentucky has the bigger mismatch as they outrank Tenn by an average of 40 ranks. Their secondary has struggled as of lately and dropped to 49th overall in PFF but that’s not a particular place this Tennessee offense can expose as they rank 59th in passing and 109th in receiving. We have a huge mismatch in tackling as Kentucky ranks 22nd and Tennessee, per usual, ranks 110th in tackling. Also in special teams as Tennessee ranks 126th, even making the 72nd ranked Kentucky special teams look good. Tennessee heavily relies on their running ability but Kentucky can stuff the run with the best ranking #17th ib yards per rush allowed. Their corners can easily match up with Tennessee's and stack the box against their run game. Tennessee will be forced to obvious throwing situations where they struggle at protecting their QB ranking #125th in sack %. Tennessee's rush defense has struggled against the tougher competition giving up over 200 yards to Ole Miss, Alabama, and UF - a place where Kentucky’s offense is just as good, ranking 24th in yards per rush at 5.2 ypc. Kentucky is also the much more disciplined team ranking 15th in penalties per play opposed to Tennessee that ranks #74th. Give me this in a pick-em all day and so be it if we lose.

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Good luck all - tough card, I leaned a bunch of big favs but laid off a few.

Week 10 adds:

Mia/Gtech over 63 (-105)

Oregon State -11.5 (-105)

Florida -20.5 (-105)

Mia/Gtech over 63 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units

Both offenses have made changes at QB that have shown some life to their teams. Sims lost his job in the first game but took over the starting role in their big upset win over UNC. Same thing with Miami as King started but got injured and Van Dyke took over the starting role where he has been great - even against a tough Pitt defense last week he completed 76% of his passes for 10.1 yards. He’s completing 63% on the season for 9.2 yards. Miami has yet to face a true running QB this season and Sims can beat you with his legs and he’s the 2nd leading rusher on the team averaging 6.42 yards per carry. The PFF ranks show the BIG reasons to take the over in this matchup. Across all positional matchups, both offenses outrank their defensive counterparts by an average of 46 ranks. Gtech prefers to run and that’s been a bigger weakness of Miami who ranks 104th in PFF rush defense. Miami prefers to throw which is the biggest weakness of this Gtech defense who ranks #115th in PFF coverage and 118th in defensive passing efficiency. (Miami ranks 81st in defensive passing efficiency) Neither team is good in the pass rush so both QBs should have plenty of time. Both defenses suck at tackling with Miami ranking 129th and Gtech 67. Both special teams are terrible with Miami's ranking 112th and Gtech 96th, which should lead to some good field position for both teams. FEI shows advantages to both offenses as well - just not as significantly. Miami is one of the fastest offenses in the nation with only a 45% TOP % yet ranked #18 in plays per game. They haven’t been able to run so they throw 55% of the time, which should stop the clock a lot. Both defenses are bad on 3rd down and in the red zone. Miami gives up a ton of penalties, and they are the favorite so lets hope some of those penalties extend Gtech’s drives. Both defenses are in the bottom half of the league of big plays over 30+ yards allowed and both offenses are in the top half. Both defenses are terrible at breaking up passes and Gtech ranks 128th in total passes defended per game and Miami ranks 91st. TAKE THE OVER~!

Oregon State -11.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units

As if the numbers weren't mismatched enough already for this game, starting LB, leading tackler, captain of (BAD) defense - Nate Landman will most likely be sitting out as he is hampered by an injury and doesn’t want to risk his NFL aspirations. This game should be dominated in the trenches as the numbers dictate - showing the Beavers with a HUGE advantage given the fact they are quietly performing as the best offensive line in the league, according to Footballoutsiders line yards - they rank 1st in line yard, 1 in stuff ranking, 2nd in opportunity rate, and 3rd in power rankings. A monumental mismatch on paper for a Colorado defense who ranks 93rd in line yards, 51st in stuff ranking, 80th in power rank, and 65 in opportunity rank. Colorado’s offensive line is also outranked by Oregon state’s defensive line by an average of 20 ranks (75 ranks on offense) across all categories. The Beavs average 5.7 yards per carry ranking 4th and should run for 300 yards against Colorado who allows 5.3 yards per rush allowed. (ranked #115th). PFF shows Oregon State’s offense outmatching Colorado in every category by an average of 70 ranks. Oregon State’s defense, a bit too as they outrank in every category their offensive counterpart does as well just by a little less average of 20 ranks. Even as bad as Colorado’s stats are, most of them were in blowouts where they faced 3rd stringers, don’t go judging the bad stats, badly enough. Oregon State should win big and the bookies are still counting their dollars from last week's Oregon State trap (where we had Cal) so they maybe set a low line in this one. This one scared me as the line seems “trappy” and my “trap specialist” consultant “Darren Dimes” agrees….but after hearing about Landman being out - I had to go ahead and pull the trigger.

Florida -20.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units

I usually don’t even look at games with 2 TDs spread but this is another HUGE fav this week that stuck out like a sore thumb. South Carolina will most likely be on the 3rd string QB as Luke Doty started the season, got hurt, then Zeb Noland came in and is banged up so that leaves a little experienced Jason Brown. Even if it was Doty who led the team for most of the year, the stat mismatches are heavily skewed towards UF. This is another huge line of scrimmage mismatch as UF is Top 20 in almost every line category as Emory is a running QB and they’ve been averaging 6.1 yards per carry! (ranked 2nd). This is another devastating mismatch on paper as that is the biggest weakness of South Carolina’s team who ranks 126th in line yards, 111th in opportunity rate, 130th in power ranking and 129th in stuff ranking. Omitting the sack rank - that means UF O-Line outranks the Gamecocks D-Line by an average of 102 ranks! Biggest mismatch of the weak and more so then Utah last night over Stanford. Despite both being the SEC, UF has had the much harder schedule to go along with their better stats as they've had the 8th hardest sagarin strength of schedule and South Carolina 54th. Even though this UF defense is pretty terrible, against 3rd stringer, I’m sure they will be pinning their ears back and bringing pressure as they rank 12th in pass rushing according to PFF - a place where South Carolina has struggled all season ranking 116th in PFF pass blocking. There’s also a pretty significant advantage according FEI on both sides of the ball is UF defense outranks South Carolina’s offense by an average of 85 ranks across all categories (still can’t figure out why UF is ranked so high in FEI ranks - lol) Hopefully all these big favorites cover this week, and it’s not typical of what I like to bet. (I actually leaned a few more but laid off)

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