DAPPER DAN PICKS:
WEEK 10: 5-6 (-1.33 UNITS)
SEASON YTD: 57-39 (+17.31 UNITS)
Sorry fellas, write-ups will be short and won’t be a big card this week as my brother is getting married tonight and slammed at work too so, this what we got so far….will add a few more tmrw morning possibly but FIRE AWAY ON THESE BABIES!
Michigan ML (+102) 2x
Baylor +6 (-105)
Minnesota/Iowa Under 37 (-102)
Boston College ML (+108)
Ohio State -20.5 (-107)
Notre Dame -5 (-105)
Ole Miss +2.5 (-105)
Michigan ML (+102) Risking 2 units to win 2.04 units
First two unit bet of the season and I love it. Been doing 1.5x units all season for my best bets but they’ve been hitting at a high rate so I’m upping to two units like years past. First off the eye test, I watch the BIG 10 a lot and what you see from Cade McNamara is a huge plus over Sean Clifford leading the other side. Clifford can’t handle pressure or pick up yards with his legs. Cade thrives under pressure with the 3rd lowest sack % in the league and buys time well with his legs for his receivers to get open. Penn State’s defensive line has been solid this year, but they haven’t faced an offensive line like Michigan who ranks 35th across all line categories - and have averaged 5.3 yards per carry ranking 16th in the nation. Although Penn State’s defensive yards per carry allowed has been good on the season - their rush defense ranks 94th in PFF so Michigan should be able to run at will. Penn State’s offense has really been struggling lately - especially on the ground - where they have averaged 2.06 yards per carry in their last 3 games and 3.3 yards per carry on the season. Their struggles should continue against a Michigan defensive line that ranks in the top 15 in every line yard category - and outrank Penn State’s offensive line by an average of 67.5 ranks in rushing line yard categories. FEI shows huge advantages for Michigan on the defensive side of the ball as they outrank Penn State’s offense by an average of 77 ranks across all FEI efficiency categories. Michigan’s defense should stop the run and get some pressure as they are a well rounded defense that ranks 3rd overall according to PFF, and 3rd in pass rush - a place where Penn State's offensive line has struggled ranking 50th in pass blocking. Penn State has won the last two years in this BIG 10 rivalry matchup but it's finally time for revenge as Michigan has the better team this season!
Baylor +6 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
I’ve talked about these two teams a lot in past write-ups and this is just too many points for these soft BIG 12 defenses. I think Bohanon will be too tough for Oklahoma’s soft defense to contain and Baylor might even pull off the upset here but very safe with this many points.
Boston College ML (+108) Risking 1 unit to win 1.08 units
Jurkovec is back, baby! Good time to bet on Boston College and I was able to sneak them in live last week as those sneaky bastards waited until a few minutes before game time last week before officially announcing. Even though Boston College has been playing crippled on offense for the last 6 weeks with him out, the stats still show strong advantages to Boston College on both sides of the ball (some trap vibes though). In PFF, Boston College’s offense outranks G. Tech’s defense positional matchups by an average of 70 ranks. For G. Tech’s offense, if you omit the pass rush ranks as BC doesn’t like to bring pressure, then Boston College’s defense outranks Gtech by 46 ranks across all positional matchups. We have strong mismatches in tackling and special teams as well as Boston College is solid in both ranking 6th in tackling and 6th in special teams - where Gtech ranks 81st in tackling and 112th in special teams. Jurkovec should put up some big numbers against a Gtech passing defense that ranks 123rd defensive passing efficiency - another mismatch as BC’s passing efficiency defense ranks 21st in the league. Last year, Boston College dominated Georgia Tech at the line of scrimmage - average 6 yards per carry and only allowing G. Tech to run for 3.2 yards per carry - and won by 21 points. Worst case this is a close game but I think Boston College should win without issue. I actually was able to buy to +3 (-130) on one of my bookies and it is worth it if you can shop around and find.
Minnesota/Iowa Under 37 (-102) Risking 1.02 units to win 1 units
Another nice BIG 10 under on paper. Both teams love to chew clock and run the ball. Especially this week for Iowa as Petras is out and back-up Padilla will be starting. Minnesota ranks 5th in TOP% at 58%, yet ranks 102nd with only 67 plays per game - an insane stat. I’ve talked about this Iowa defense a lot - both of these teams have strong defenses and FEI stats agree as Iowa’s defense outranks Minnesota’s offense by an average of 54 ranks across all categories and Minnesota’s defense outranks Iowa’s offense by an even bigger average of 71 ranks! The defensive line’s show the same mismatches. Sorry another short writeup but feel very good about despite the very low number - just like our wiscy/iowa matchup - even with multiple turnovers inside the redzone I think we still win this pretty easily.
Ohio State -20.5 (-107) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
Ohio State should smash the upset specialists Purdue if you look at this game on paper and I think the oddsmakers agree with the high line even though Purdue has kept it close with the best teams in the Big 10 so far. Purdue has struggled with teams that out-match them at the line of scrimmage (like Wisconsin and Notre Dame), and Ohio State’s mismatch is tremendous on both sides of the ball. Purdue throws 60% of the time as they have been able to do nothing on the ground, averaging 2.5 yards per carry. Ohio State’s defensive line has only allowed 3 yards per carry on the season and outrank Purdue’s poor offensive line by an average of 80 ranks across all line yard categories. On the other side Ohio State’s offensive line has been stellar - averaging 5.3 yards per carry and are 6th in line yards, 18th in opportunity rate, 30th in power ranking and 2nd in stuff ranking. A big mismatch on paper as they outrank Purdue’s defensive line by an average of 44 ranks across all categories. Once Ohio State stuff’s Purdue’s run game they can pin back their ears and bring a strong pass rush which they’ve been great at all season - ranking 7th in PFF. This will cause issues for Aiden O’Connell who’s offensive line ranks 55th in pass blocking. Overall, according to PFF, Ohio State ranks 1st in the nation and Purdue’s defense ranks 100th so I see no reason why the Buckeyes can’t beat them by more than 3 TD’s considering all the mismatches on paper but you never know betting football! I like our odds here!
Notre Dame -5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Betting against my beloved Virginia team here as this should be an easy win for Notre Dame. First off UVA’s defense is an absolute joke as we have all seen and rank in the bottom 10% of almost every measurable stat category possible. To make things worse, Brennan Armstrong is banged up and left last game and so is their leading rusher and important piece for pass protection - Wayne Taulapapa. The last time Taulapapa didn’t play their offense gave up 6 sacks and only scored 17 points against Wake Forest. Unlike UVA - Notre Dame’s defense has been great all around according to PFF, ranking 15th overall, 31st in coverage, 16th in rush defense, and 4th in tackling. Notre Dame’s offense has been struggling getting yards on the ground, only averaging 3.7 yards per carry on the season, but expect that to change against this Virginia defense that has been allowing a league worst 6.1 yards per carry. Notre Dame’s offensive line has also struggled at giving time for Jack Coan, ranking 107th in sack% this season, but again another issue that shouldn’t show in this game against a UVA defense that ranks 123rd in sack %. Hopefully Brennan and Taulapapa don’t play but regardless I think Notre Dame covers easily.
Ole Miss +2.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
No writeup - sorry. Follow SEC closely and have watched and bet on these two teams frequently. Buy to 3 if you can.
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