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2021 - Week 12 17 views

Dapper Dan Picks:

Week 11: 7-2 (+5.93 units)

Season YTD: 64-41 (+23.24 units) (61%)

Week 12:

FSU +2 (-105)

Michigan State +19 (-105)

Wake Forest +4.5 (-105)

Marshall -14.5 (-105)

UAB/UTSA under 53.5 (-105)

Minnesota -7.5 (+100)

UCLA -3 (-115)

Kansas/TCU over 64.5 (-102)

California ML (-125) 1.5x

Colorado State ML (-135)

Week 12:

FSU +2 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units

Great spot to take FSU here as their team strengths match up well against Boston College. Boston College has been getting gashed on the ground lately dropping from their #17th ranked PFF rush defense to 47th now in a month and haven given up 999 yards (voodoo) on 168 carries giving up an average of almost 6 yards per carry to opponents over the last 4 games. The one strength of this FSU team is their rushing attack as Jordan Travis is a true dual threat QB and the team has been averaging 4.8 yards per carry. Their offense has been consistently scoring in the red zone, ranking 1st in the ACC and 18th in the country with a 71.4 Red Zone touchdown percentage. They’ve converted points on 25 straight red zone trips and that’s the 3rd longest streak in the nation. On defense, their biggest strength is what Boston College relies on - their run game. FSU’s rush defense ranks 11th in PFF and their defensive line outranks BC’s offensive line in every line yard category and by an average of 22 ranks. They will have to throw the ball and Jurkovec doesn’t have the best arm and throws a lot of ducks from what I’ve seen so far since he’s returned from injury. After losing 4 straight to start the season, Norvell has really turned around this FSU program winning 4 of the last 6 and losing only to Clemson and NC state. In the month of October, the FSU defense held opponents to 6 of 12 red zone conversions - ranking 2nd in the nation in defensive red zone stop rates. FSU has also had the much harder schedule according to sagarin as FSU ranks 25th in SOS where BC ranks 76th. I was born to hate the Seminoles but I still see value in betting them this game.

Michigan State +19 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units

Come on bookies, are you really going to undervalue this Michigan state team all year to the tune of 7-2 ATS already? This is just too many points as on paper both of these teams are pretty equally matched with both offenses outranking their defensive counterparts by 20 ranksl. Ohio State’s secondary is much weaker, ranking 70th in the nation and they will be facing a well rounded offense that ranks 32nd in passing, 12th in receiving, 22nd in rushing and 22nd in run blocking. Rarely in PFF do you ever see a team with a good run offense and good run blocking offense (usually one is high and one is low) but these are equally excellent with the lucky number 2’s! Although Ohio State's defense ranks high in most stat categories for yards per play- their defense has struggled on 3rd down, ranking 92nd in 3rd down conv %. Their offense that is accustomed to averaging 6 yards per carry shouldn't get that much push against a Michigan State front that has only allowed 3.3 yards per carry on the season against all opponents. I think this will be a close one even though Ohio State has won and covered the last 4 years in this matchup but this year Mel Tucker (the defensive guru) and his staff show this Buckeyes team this program is back. Their offensive coordinator, Jay Johnson, is already nominated for the Broyles award this season as explosive as this offense has been.

Wake Forest +4.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units

Clemson has done nothing impressive on offense to think they can keep up with Wake here. According to FEI ranks, Clemson’s offense ranks 102nd across all categories and #111th in yards per play - a huge difference from Wake Forest who averages 14th across all FEI categories and 21st in yards per play. Clemson’s offense will sputter enough on their own to not be able to keep pace with wake. Clemson’s defense is stellar per usual but they have yet to face a team as explosive as Wake’s who ranks 5th in passing. 6th in receiving and 7th in overall offense. Clemson’s disruptive pass rush shouldn’t affect veteran Hartman who has seen this Clemson defense a few times now and will be looking for revenge. This is the year to do it as Clemson clearly hasn't found the right QB to lead their team and Hartman has 4 years of starting experience under his belt. PFF ranks actually show mismatches on BOTH sides of the ball for Wake as their offense outranks Clemson’s defense by an average of 25 ranks across all positional categories and an average of 28 ranks against Clemson's offense. Wake has been excellent at protecting the ball this season and making plays on defense as they have a +1 turnover margin ranking 5th in the nation, an area where Clemson has struggled this season ranking 73rd in turnover margin. Wake is also much more disciplined ranking 34th opposed to Clemson’s 79th in penalties per play. Clemson has literally smashed the hell out of Wake for the last decade, without even having a spread less than 20 points! +4.5 was the largest possible number the bookies could give to Wake considering this market fact but this year won’t be like the others. Was strongly considering making this a 1.5x unit bet or sprinkling on moneyline but a lot of cappers I respect are liking Clemson so just the one unit! ARGH!

Marshall -14.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units

Of course buy this to 14 if you can - I’m just dealing with the woes of tracking on a site you can’t buy points all season but this looks like a blowout on paper regardless as Marshall lights up big in all 3 categories I focus - PFF ranks, offensive/defensive line, and FEI ranks. In the PFF this mismatch is the biggest as Marshall outranks terrible defensive positional counterparts by an average of 77 ranks as Charlotte's defense ranks 127th in overall defense. Marshall’s defense outranks Charlotte's offense too by an average of 37 ranks across all positional categories and the tackling mismatch is huge as Marshall ranks 36th in tackling and Charlotte ranks 126th. Teams that can’t tackle always get blown badly and Charlotte is susceptible to the big play as they rank 120th in long scrimmage plays over 30+ yards allowed. Marshall’s offensive line outranks the Charlotte defensive line by 48 ranks. FEI shows Marshall should put up big numbers as they outrank across all categories by an average of 56 ranks. Marshall’s defense is actually in Top 25 of almost all FEI categories so Charlotte’s lower ranked offense will struggle. Marshall’s defense also ranks 6th in red zone scoring % allowed where Charlotte’s offense struggles ranking 106th. This is an important game for Marshall in the conference as they stand one game behind WKU and still get to play them. Charlotte has loss 3 of the last 4 and after a rough start for Marshall, their team is meshing and has won 4 of the last 5 with only losing to UAB in a close one last week. No one has been betting Marshall on the road as they are 6-1 ATS in last 7 road games. Charlotte is the much worse team and Marshall should run away with this.

UAB/UTSA under 53.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units

I usually don’t like to bet these crap teams that I haven’t ever watched any games for but my sharp buddy, 2dabank, pointed out this total and after looking at the numbers, it has strong implications of an under-brewing. First off both teams prefer to run, with UAB running 60% of the time, the clock probably won’t stop moving. But the biggest strength of both of these teams is their run defense as UTSA has only given up 2.7 yards per carry on the season (ranking 4th) and UAB has only given up 3.1 ypc (ranking 10th). The defensive line mismatch on both sides of the ball agree that both teams should struggle to run with UTSA outranking UAB’s offensive line by an average of 41 ranks across all categories and UAB outranking UTSA’s offensive line by an average of 23 ranks across all categories. UAB should really struggle in their passing game as they rank 124th in sack % and UTSA ranks 24th in sack%. Without being able to run the ball they should be in long down and distance 3rd downs where the pass rush can really bring some pressure on them like they have all season. Both teams defenses have been doing well in the red zone and 3rd’s downs where UTSA ranks 7th in red scoring % and #29th in 3rd down conversion %. UAB will milk the clock themselves as their TOP% is ranked 27th in the nation yet rank 125th in plays per game. These two shit teams are familiar with each other as they played the last 4 years and the Under is 2-1-1 and I think we got another under in this matchup and one you probably shouldn’t watch - ha.

Minnesota -7.5 (+100) Risking 1 unit to win 1 unit

Buy this to 7….Ugh….don’t think it matters but lot’s of reasons to love Minnesota here. Indiana will most likely be on the third string walk on QB as Penix went down for the season and Tuttle is questionable, but even if he does play this team is a dumpster fire on both sides of the ball right now. Indiana’s defensive numbers started off with great numbers on the season but have quickly dropped as they’ve been stuck on the field most of the game with an inept offense. Minnesota loves controlling the clock and moving the chains slowly with a TOP% of 59% ranking 4th in the nation. Minnesota should run the ball well as they outrank Indiana’s defensive line by an average of 32 ranks across all categories. Minnesota's struggles on offense has been in pass protection but that’s not a strength of this Indiana defense who ranks 117th in sack rank. Indiana has been sloppy with the ball, averaging 2 giveaways per game so we should win the turnover battle as Fleck’s squad only averages 1 per game. Minnesota’s play calling has been great in the red zone, scoring on 90.91 % of red zone opportunities. A place where Indiana’s defense struggles, and coincidentally have allowed opponents to score on exactly 90.91% in red zone scoring % (more weird voodoo). If you omit the Maryland game (such a bad team), in the last 6 games this Indiana offense has averaged 6.5 points per game. This Minnesota defense is more than capable of stopping them by outranking them by 47 ranks across all categories in FEI. PFF also shows Minnesota defense should stuff them up as they outrank Indiana’s offense by an average of 31 ranks across all positional matchups. Despite losing their last two against two very good defenses, I think Minnesota wins this one by a lot more than one TD.

UCLA -3 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units

I loved this play before looking at the injury report and USC has a TON with a total of 22 listed including starting QB, Kedon Slovis. UCLA should run all over this USC defense that has been horrible against the run, ranking 84th in PFF and allowing 4.7 yards per carry (ranked 98th). The offensive/defensive line mismatch is HUGE with UCLA’s offensive line outranking USC’s defensive line by an average of 65 ranks and they have really done their damage on standard downs ranking 11th in the nation a place where USC has really struggled ranking 102nd in standard downs (classic mismatch we look for on 1st and 2nd down - we’ve been eating these up all season) FEI numbers agree that UCLA should put up 35+ as they outrank USC defensive by the FEI categories by an average of 60 ranks too. USC has won and covered the last two years in this matchup giving us extra value but I think UCLA pulls out the easy win here. Short and sweet writeup here!

Kansas/TCU over 64.5 (-102) Risking 1.02 units to win 1 units

Put a number as high as you want as this one as although TCU played inspired last week and upsetting Oklahoma State - I think we see a return to the standard of the shit defense that has plagued TCU this year. Kansas has seen some life on offense with new starting QB, Jalon Daniels who shedded his redshirt to play for Kansas in its final few games. They put up 57 in a huge upset for themselves last week. Both teams defenses are in the bottom of almost all positional categories - including tackling where Kansas ranks 100th and TCU ranks 123rd. Mis-tackles are a fun thing to watch when you’re betting an over. TCU has still been great on the ground and that’s the biggest weakness of this Kansas defense and their defensive line is outranked by TCU’s offensive line by an average of 60 ranks. The FEI numbers show strong advantages to both offenses as Kansas outranks by an average of 33 ranks (with most of those numbers coming from a diff offensive QB) and TCU’s offense outranking by an average of 33 ranks across all categories. Both defenses have given up a ton of big plays, over 40+ yards Kansas ranks 88th and TCU and even worse 129th. Both defenses are terrible on 3rd down ranking 124th and 130th. Both defenses are terrible in the red zone, ranking 103rd and 127th. This should be another BIG 12 shootout that may be overlooked by most.

California ML (-125) Risking 1.88 units to win 1.5x units

My favorite most dangerous play of the week due to COVID regulation you never know what to expect out of these California teams as Cal had 2 dozen players sit out last week which led to their loss against Arizona. I expect them to come out firing (and pissed off) after being forced to sit due to over-reaching HIPPY (ironic) regulations. The one thing Cal offense can do really well is run the ball ranking 7th in line yards, 10th in opportunity rate, 29th in power ranking and 15th in stuff ranking. A tremendous mismatch on paper where you may remember Stanford last primetime game where their defensive line left holes so big they broke all kinds of records and averaged almost 10 yards per carry, lol. Stanford’s defensive line averages out to 118th across all d-line categories. Cal’s defensive line should also have a mismatch as they outrank Stanfords horrible offensive line by an average of 25 ranks across all line categories. FEI shows the same mismatches as Cal’s offense outranks Stanford defense by an average of 20 ranks and Cal’s defense outranks Stanford’s offense by an average of 43 ranks. Is Tanner McKee back? Who cares? I don’t think this one matters when the other team is averaging 5 yards per carry on you and moving the chains at will. This should be more of the same from a Stanford program that has really fallen off but the market setters have yet to adjust enough, especially against a Cal team coming off an asterisk disappointing loss to the worst team in the PAC 12.

Colorado State ML (-135) Risking 1.35 units to win 1 units

You will rarely ever see me play a late night Hawaii game but I like this one a lot so decided to pull the trigger. Talked a lot about this Colorado State defense already, they are ranked 16th overall in PFF, 13th in pass rush, 22nd in secondary, 41st in run defense, and 28th in tackling. A huge PFF mismatch for Hawaii’s offense that ranks 94th overall. On offense, Although Colorado state hasn’t been great they’ve had a decent passing game which ranks 31s in passing and 45th in receiving - the biggest weakness for this Hawaii defense who’s secondary ranks 108th and overall they rank 81st. According to FEI ranks this Hawaii offense shouldn’t do much as they are outranked by CSU’s defense by an average of 62 ranks across all categories. Colorado State has had a much harder schedule and if you look at the common opponents Colorado State has bested the score margin by an average of 20 points in both games. Colorado State’s defense is great on 3rd down and the red zone - an area where Hawaii’s defense struggles. Colorado State’s defensive line ranks 2nd in qb sack % and Hawaii’s offensive line ranks 100th in sack % so expect lots of disruption in the back field and I think Colorado State wins handedly I just hate Hawaii games, ha.

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