Dapper Dan Picks:
Week 12: 5-5 (-0.02 units)
Season YTD: 69-46 (+23.22 units)
Happy Thanksgiving, there will be some more to eat tmrw! This is my busiest week of the year at work so will try to get all the write-ups in but I got all the numbers done really early in the week to get a head start on all these great Friday games - already a few that stick out and will be spending my day off work crunching the football numbers! Bookies pissed me off with our 3rd "losing week" of the season and this is the last FULL SATURDAY SLATE! DIG IN! This what we got so far.
Miss/Miss State over 62 (-105)
Nebraska +1.5 (-105) 1.5x
Miss/Miss State over 62 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
This in-state rivalry has gone under the total the last 4 years, but there’s reason to believe it will go over the total this season. Since the beginning of the season it was no secret that Ole Miss defense had holes and their offense was explosive, the oddsmakers in turn have been setting extremely high totals for them all season, and Ole Miss has gone 3-8 on the over/under. As a result, this line seems a bit low especially when you consider how these two teams operate. Mike Leach and his air raid are still ranking 1st in the league in pass % and both teams rank in the top 10 of plays per game. According to FEI, both offenses have advantages in almost every advanced stat category and by an average of at least 25 ranks between both teams. Both teams are heavily penalized which should extend drives more often then it sets the chains back and if it did set the chains back these offenses have shown more than capable of hitting the big play, especially Ole Miss who ranks 24th in long scrimmage plays over 30+ yards and 23rd in over 40+ yards. Ole Miss is 5th in plays over 10+ yards and Miss State ranks 24th. Ole Miss is biggest strength is their pass rush, which usually isn't an issue with Leach’s air raid as they get the ball out quickly and rank 25th in sack% allowed. Both defenses are in the bottom 3rd of the league in completion % allowed and both QBs started last year against each other and had big games so they know these defenses. I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a special teams TD as things always get weird in the Egg Bowl and let’s root for points.
Nebraska +1.5 (-105) Risking 1.57 units to win 1.5 units
My favorite play of the week but I didn’t make 2 units as it’s tough to predict how new starting QB Logan Smothers will look in his starting debut. On HUDL film, he’s extremely quick and can break ankles when he takes off. At the spring game he started off rusty but was making good throws after he warmed up, very quick release and let’s see if he’s the guy to take this Frost team to the next level. Adrian Martinez has been the biggest thorn in Nebraska’s side for the last 4 years so I’m relieved he’s gone as you can’t count on one hand how many games he single handedly lost with a terrible turnover. This Nebraska defense is quietly rising through the ranks of the top defenses in the league, and held Ohio State’s #1 offense to a season low point total of 26 points two weeks ago. According to PFF they rank 23rd in coverage and biggest weakness is their rush defense that ranks 104th in the league. Lucky for them, Iowa has shown no ability to run the ball over the season as they are 105th in the run game according to PFF and have averaged 3.1 yards per rush on the season (ranking 121st). Iowa’s offense ranks in the bottom of most defensive categories including 107th in 3rd conv %, 104th in red zone scoring, 109th in yards per pass and #110th in sack%. Alex Padilla has started the last few games and although he has won all their starts, it’s been against weak teams and he hasnt shown anything impressive completing 39 of 83 passes on the season for an average of 6.3 yards and only 2 TDs and 1 INT. Iowa will rely on their defense like it usually does but Scott Frost is one of the more difficult offenses to plan against, especially with a new mobile weapon leading the team. They were able to put 28 points with Martinez last week against Wisconsin and outgain them with the difference in the game being a special teams TD to open the game, (and a few Martinez INTs of course) Nebraska has also had the much harder schedule as they rank 3rd in SOS ranks and Iowa ranks 40th. You also have a 9-2 team vs a 3-8 team yet the line is a pick-em? Tin-foil hat red flag too. Let’s take the home team in which should be a big upset.