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2021 - Week 13 24 views

Dapper Dan Picks:

Week 12: 5-5 (-0.02 units)

Season YTD: 69-46 (+23.22 units)

Happy Thanksgiving, there will be some more to eat tmrw! This is my busiest week of the year at work so will try to get all the write-ups in but I got all the numbers done really early in the week to get a head start on all these great Friday games - already a few that stick out and will be spending my day off work crunching the football numbers! Bookies pissed me off with our 3rd "losing week" of the season and this is the last FULL SATURDAY SLATE! DIG IN! This what we got so far.

Week 13:

Miss/Miss State over 62 (-105)

Nebraska +1.5 (-105) 1.5x

Week 13:

Miss/Miss State over 62 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units

This in-state rivalry has gone under the total the last 4 years, but there’s reason to believe it will go over the total this season. Since the beginning of the season it was no secret that Ole Miss defense had holes and their offense was explosive, the oddsmakers in turn have been setting extremely high totals for them all season, and Ole Miss has gone 3-8 on the over/under. As a result, this line seems a bit low especially when you consider how these two teams operate. Mike Leach and his air raid are still ranking 1st in the league in pass % and both teams rank in the top 10 of plays per game. According to FEI, both offenses have advantages in almost every advanced stat category and by an average of at least 25 ranks between both teams. Both teams are heavily penalized which should extend drives more often then it sets the chains back and if it did set the chains back these offenses have shown more than capable of hitting the big play, especially Ole Miss who ranks 24th in long scrimmage plays over 30+ yards and 23rd in over 40+ yards. Ole Miss is 5th in plays over 10+ yards and Miss State ranks 24th. Ole Miss is biggest strength is their pass rush, which usually isn't an issue with Leach’s air raid as they get the ball out quickly and rank 25th in sack% allowed. Both defenses are in the bottom 3rd of the league in completion % allowed and both QBs started last year against each other and had big games so they know these defenses. I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a special teams TD as things always get weird in the Egg Bowl and let’s root for points.

Nebraska +1.5 (-105) Risking 1.57 units to win 1.5 units

My favorite play of the week but I didn’t make 2 units as it’s tough to predict how new starting QB Logan Smothers will look in his starting debut. On HUDL film, he’s extremely quick and can break ankles when he takes off. At the spring game he started off rusty but was making good throws after he warmed up, very quick release and let’s see if he’s the guy to take this Frost team to the next level. Adrian Martinez has been the biggest thorn in Nebraska’s side for the last 4 years so I’m relieved he’s gone as you can’t count on one hand how many games he single handedly lost with a terrible turnover. This Nebraska defense is quietly rising through the ranks of the top defenses in the league, and held Ohio State’s #1 offense to a season low point total of 26 points two weeks ago. According to PFF they rank 23rd in coverage and biggest weakness is their rush defense that ranks 104th in the league. Lucky for them, Iowa has shown no ability to run the ball over the season as they are 105th in the run game according to PFF and have averaged 3.1 yards per rush on the season (ranking 121st). Iowa’s offense ranks in the bottom of most defensive categories including 107th in 3rd conv %, 104th in red zone scoring, 109th in yards per pass and #110th in sack%. Alex Padilla has started the last few games and although he has won all their starts, it’s been against weak teams and he hasnt shown anything impressive completing 39 of 83 passes on the season for an average of 6.3 yards and only 2 TDs and 1 INT. Iowa will rely on their defense like it usually does but Scott Frost is one of the more difficult offenses to plan against, especially with a new mobile weapon leading the team. They were able to put 28 points with Martinez last week against Wisconsin and outgain them with the difference in the game being a special teams TD to open the game, (and a few Martinez INTs of course) Nebraska has also had the much harder schedule as they rank 3rd in SOS ranks and Iowa ranks 40th. You also have a 9-2 team vs a 3-8 team yet the line is a pick-em? Tin-foil hat red flag too. Let’s take the home team in which should be a big upset.

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Week 13 Adds:

Coastal Carolina -15 (-105)

NC State -6.5 (-105)

Michigan +7.5 (-110)

Pittsburgh -13.5 (-105)

Coastal Carolina -15 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units

This was the best 2 TD’s favorites on Friday after looking them over all very closely. By the numbers, Coastal has very strong advantages as they outrank South Alabama by 61 ranks on offense in PFF and 72 ranks on defense. On defense, they should really do damage in the pass rush as they rank 17th in PFF pass rush and South Alabama ranks 120th in pass blocking. At the line of scrimmage C. Carolina’s defensive line outranks South Alabama’s offensive line by an average of 37 ranks - and it’s not because Coastal Carolina’s defensive line is that good, it's just that the South Alabama O-line is in the bottom 5% of most categories. FEI shows the same mismatches and if you combine these 3 mismatches on paper, as well as the fact that South Alabama recently lost starting QB Jake Bentley who missed the last 2 games which has made South Alabama's offense even worse averaging 10.5 points in the last two without him starting, I see no reason why Coastal doesn’t win by 3+ TDs.

NC State -6.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units

North Carolina has won the last two years and covered the last 4 games in this head to head matchup. But by the numbers this season, NC State has lots of advantages. Overall on both sides of the ball the advantage is clear as even though North Carolina ranks a nice 45th overall, they are facing a 16th overall defense that is great against the run, which sets up UNC’s passing game - NC State ranks 8th in run defense according to PFF. NC State prefers to pass - and that's the biggest weakness of UNC as their pass rush ranks 117h and secondary ranks 91st. UNC’s defense ranks 81st in defensive passing efficiency and 95th in 3rd down conversion % allowed. These are huge mismatches as NC State's defense has only allowed opponents to convert 30% of their 3rd downs - ranking 6th, allowing opponents to average only 4.7 yards per paly - ranking 14th. UNC has struggled at protecting their QB, ranking 123rd in QB sack % and NC State ranks 56th in sack%. Howell is also banged up and didn't play the last game so his mobility will be limited (another important piece to their offensive success) . Overall, in the trenches, NC State’s offensive line out ranks UNC’s defensive line (that ranks in bottom 10% of most categories) by an average of 22 ranks. Even though UNC has had a strong rushing attack they have yet to face a defensive line like NC State that ranks 10th in line yards, 3rd in power ranking and 3rd in stuff ranking. Against Georgia Tech and Pitt, UNC couldn’t average more than 2.5 yards per carry and lost both games by more than 7. Sagarin agrees that not only has NC State had the stronger schedule but a much higher overall Sagarin ranking of 18th compared to UNC’s 49th sagarin rank.I think this one's NC State should win big regardless if Howell plays, but if he doesn’t - we should cash this easily.

Michigan +7.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units

Yes, we know Ohio State’s offense is so great, but they haven’t faced a defense like Michigan’s that currently ranks 2nd overall, 3rd in the pass rush, 10th in coverage, 6th in rush defense and 6th in tackling. There’s not one area of the game that they have struggled according to PFF. The differential between Ohio State's backs and receivers vs Michigan's defense is -7 in the passing game and -3 in the rushing game. The differential between Michigan’s backs and receivers vs the buckeyes defense is larger with a -16 in the passing game and -25 in the running game. Ohio State’s defense is ranked 29th overall, 60th in coverage, and 54th in tackling. I love taking this many points with the better defense. Despite OSU ranking 1st in most FEI rankings they will be up against a Michigan defense that is in the Top 10 of almost all FEI rankings (unlike Michigan State last week). FEI shows they are evenly matched so the extra 7 points is a huge +. I mentioned before how banged up this Ohio State team is and it got worse last week as they lost a few more including starting center Harry Miller who’s been banged up all season. I know Harbaugh has struggled in these big match-ups but if you look at every important statistical category this Michigan is solid on both sides of the ball, even special teams as they are ranked 19th in special teams this year. They are also much more disciplined only ranked #32nd in penalties per play opposed to OSU that ranks 65th. Michigan has been great at possessing the ball and controlling the clock, ranking 17th in the nation in TOP%. Let's hope they grind this one out and keep it close with the Buckeyes who are being overvalued after last week's beatdown of Michigan State. Also word on the street is there's a ton of public money on Ohio State, granted - the bookies control the “words on the street” (big shocker) but I think in this case they’re right and are on Vegas's side. (until we be moving lines ;-)

Pittsburgh -13.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units

Pittsburgh matches up very well against this Syracuse team which makes me think this will be a blowout. In PFF, Syracuse’s biggest weakness on defense is their secondary that ranks 70th overall and they should be exploited by Pickett who ranks 1st in passing, and his receivers rank 21st overall. Syracuse’s offense relies on running the ball as Garret Shrader has only completed 50% of his passes for an average of 5.8 yards per pass with 7 TDs and 4 INTs ( in 8.5 games!?) They’ve had to run the ball all season to get any production but that is the biggest strength of this Pitt defense that ranks 25th in rush defense. The trenches show a mismatch on both sides of the ball as well as Pitt’s d-line outranks Syracuse by an average of 25 ranks across all categories and their pass rush should be very problematic as Pitt ranks 5th in QB sack rank and Syracuse ranks 115th in sack rate allowed. Pitt’s offensive line out ranks Syracuse defense line significantly too by an average of 20 ranks, but if you exclude the sack %, the mismatch is even bigger on the ground as the average jumps to 28 ranks. FEI shows a much bigger mismatch on paper as Pitt’s offense and defense are in the top 25 of most rankings where Syracuse's offense and defense are below average on both sides of the ball with an average ranking of 70th on defense and 80th on offense. For the last 3 years, Pitt has won this matchup but in close games, but I think this one they win easily by 2 TD’s plus as they have won 3 straight and are hitting their stride averaging 44 in the last 3 where Syracuse has lost two straight, and were held to a season low two weeks ago against Louisville where they only scored 3 points.

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