2021 - Week 9 45 views

Dapper Dan Picks:

Week 8 Results: 4-6 (-2.17 units)

Season YTD: 44-28 (+14.91 units)

Week 9:

Wisconsin/Iowa under 37 (-105)

Auburn ML (-135)

UCF -11 (-105)

Texas Tech +19.5 (-105)

Penn State +18.5 (-105)

North Carolina +3.5 (-107)

UVA/BYU Over 64.5 (-105)

Week 9:

Wisconsin/Iowa under 37 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units

Show me down to Squaresville where all the squares live because I’m making this square play, ALL DAY!. Oddly enough this matchup has gone OVER in 3 of the last 4 seasons with very low totals set but there’s a CLEAR CUT advantage to both defenses in this matchup that makes a write-up a piece of cake for this play. First - at the line of scrimmage, where Wiscy still reigns #1 in line yards, #1 in standard downs, #2 in passing down, #1 in opportunity rate, #2 in stuff ranking and #17 in sack rate. Unlike years past - Iowa has no run game this season, ranking #110th in yards per rush at 3.1 with line yard ranks even worse at #121, #128th in stuff ranking, and 100th in sack ranking. Whisky has no QB and they are well aware of that fact so they run the ball 65% of the time, but they will be running into the teeth of this defense as they rank #8th in yards per rush allowed, and 13th in PFF run defense. Iowa’s defensive secondary is ranked #2 in PFF and are ranked #2 in passes defended per game and they’re not about to give a bunch of yards in the air against a Wiscy offense who has struggled to protect their QB (Ranking 108th in PFF) and led by Graham Mertz who is ranked #133rd in QBs PFF passer and overall rating. Both teams tackle very well and rank in the top 5 of long scrimmage plays over 20+ yards allowed. Both offenses have been terrible at producing long scrimmage plays with Iowa ranking #110 in over 20+ yards and Wisconsin ranking #127th. Both teams will chew clock and be very conserative as both coaches know each other’s weaknesses well and both will look to not be the team that makes the mistake that makes the difference in what should be a close game. Stick with under and watch defenses reign.

Auburn ML (-135) Risking 1.35 units to win 1 units

As much as I love Ole Miss, I think this is a great spot for Auburn to win at home. Ole Miss's biggest defensive weakness has been stopping the run - especially on 1st downs (allowing opponents to average 4.91 yards per carry on 1st downs alone!) - ranking 115th in line yards allowed on standard downs. This is where Auburn excels, averaging 6.48 yards per carry on first downs! Tank Bigsby should have a huge day on the ground as their entire offensive line outranks Ole Miss’s defensive line by an average of 41 ranks across all categories. Auburn also has an advantage on the defensive line as they are one of the best in the league and outranking Ole Miss’s offensive line by an average of 25 ranks across all categories. PFF shows advantages on both sides of the ball as well and Auburn with the much stronger defense - ranking 14th overall. Ole Miss’s defense played well last week, but they struggle against up-tempo offenses with coverage and packages and Auburn is very capable of running a fast up-tempo speed and will most likely be doing the same, knowing that’s how Arkansas put up 51 against them a few weeks ago with a fast pace. Auburn is the much more disciplined team as Ole Miss ranks #126th in penalties per play, and Auburn is 23rd. Auburn has an edge in special teams as they’ve been solid ranking 5th overall in PFF and Ole Miss ranking 43rd. In tackling, and every defensive category Auburn has the advantage and you know I always prefer to bet the better defense so let’s go Tigers……!!!!

UCF -11 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units

It’s been 6 weeks since starting Knight QB Gabriel got injured, fracturing his collarbone. Malzahn has hinted at his return and most collarbone fractures take 6-8 weeks, but I don’t think UCF will risk it, or will need to in this matchup as they should dominate this game regardless. Leading rusher BOWSER has been battling injury and returned two weeks ago but hasn’t produced huge numbers yet - expect him to feast on this Temple run defense that has given up 5.2 yards per carry (ranked 114th) and is outranked by 60 ranks across all line categories vs the UCF offensive line. Despite losing their starting QB, Gus’s run first offense has been explosive, ranking 19th in yards per carry averaging 5.3. According to PFF, Temple’s secondary is even worse and is ranked 100th in coverage, and 96th in tackling. All this with a much weaker SOS rank as Temple ranks 102nd and UCF 72nd. Sagarin Ranks show a huge ranking mismatch too as UCF ranks 59th and Temple ranks 139th rightfully so when you consider their offensive production - which Temple ranks 111th overall according to PFF. A few weeks back freshman D’wan Mathis took over the starting QB role which provided a little spark to the Temple offense, but don’t think it will make much of a difference when you factor in their other positional struggles as Temples receiving ranks 104th and run game ranks 114th - only averaging 3.7 yards per carry (ranking 90th) . Temple also recently lost it’s two top leading tacklers (both safeties - and good indicator of a shit defense as safeties are making all your tackles). Tyler is definitely out and Griffin is questionable. Last year Temple covered the big 28 point spread on the road and I think oddsmakers over-adjusted this line this year as UCF should cover easily despite their 2-5 ATS record this season.

Texas Tech +19.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units

Against FBS opponents this season, Oklahoma’s average margin of victory is 8.7 points (remove a 21 points win against TCU and the number drops to 6.6). This is simply not a defense that can win by more than 3 possessions, and the numbers show that would be very unlikely in this game. Despite Texas Tech firing head coach Matt Wells, Sonny Cumbie remains the offensive coordinator and play caller (and promoted to interim head coach) and this offense has been very productive against it’s weak BIG 12 opponents (like oklahoma!) FEI Shows this offense is in Top 15 in almost all categories - which outranks Oklahoma's weak defense by an average of 57 ranks across all FEI categories. Surprisingly - this is more-so than Oklahoma FEI outranksTexas Tech’s defense (by 1 rank - ha!) Oklahoma’s biggest weakness on defense is their secondary that ranks 94th according to PFF and 82nd in tackling. Texas Tech’s offense can be explosive and have averaged 4.8 yards per rush. They’ve had more explosive plays of 40+ yards than anyone in the league with 20 on the season and 3 of more than 70 yards. Their receivers have plenty of speed, rank out to 30th in PFF, and have averaged 9.2 yards per pass (ranking 11th in the nation). Texas Tech’s defense was gouged on the ground by Texas and TCU heavily skewing the numbers - but aside from those games they played very well against their inferior running opponents holding 5 of their 8 opponents to under 100 yards - including last week’s game against Kansas State. Texas Tech’s defense is more disciplined and their kicker has yet to miss a FG This season so let's take the points with the big road dog who’s been beat badly the last two seasons by the same team - so they may be a bit underestimated from their undefeated opponent.

Penn State +18.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units

Who in the hell has this Ohio State team played to warrant this absurdly high line? Indiana, Maryland, Rutgers, Akron, Tulsa, Minnesota, Oregon? Oregon beat them and smashed them at the line of scrimmage averaging 7.1 yards per carry and only allowing Ohio State to run for 4.1 yards per carry. Penn State has beaten Auburn, Wisconsin, and only lost to Iowa because Clifford got hurt but since they lost two straight we’re going to make them 3 possession dogs? Even with their losses their defense remains one of the best, especially in the secondary where they rank 5th in PFF, 9th in total passes broken up and 9th in passes defended, 1st in yards per pass allowed - at 4.9, #15th in completion % allowed. Although their run defense struggles according to PFF, they have only given up 3.7 yards per carry on the season (ranking 37th). FEI has their defense in top 10 of almost all categories, and average ranking of 15th across all categories. I think this will be much closer than a 3 possession game by the numbers, especially if you consider the SOS mismatch. Ohio State has also been hit by the injury bug with 11 players recently listed as Questionable on their injury report. Most teams are susceptible to let-down spots and poor performances on any week, Penn State was due for one last week after a heartbreaking loss to Iowa, a bye week, and Ohio State on deck against a struggling Illinois team but they still should keep this one close and I love this pick, but will hold back to just 1 unit.

North Carolina +3.5 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units

Last year, UNC lost big to Notre Dame and were dominated at the line of scrimmage only averaging 2.9 yards per carry, and Notre Dame averaging 5.53 yards per carry in their matchup - they also gave up 6 sacks. But this year it’s revenge time and the offensive/defensive line numbers show a mismatch in favor of UNC on both sides of the ball - by an average of 20 ranks across all categories. Notre Dame has only mustered up 3 yards per carry on the season! (ranking #119th). Both offensive lines have struggled in pass protection but UNC’s has shown improvement from the start of the season. I was surprised to see the FEI numbers show an edge to UNC’s defense (as they've been horrible) over Notre Dame’s and they were heavily skewed due to the fact that Notre Dame has really struggled in first down drive rate, and busted drive rate, ranking #103rd and 124th and that's where UNC’s defense is at it’s best, ranking 39th in first down drive rate and 19th in busted drive rate. Notre Dame also lost starting Safety and 2nd leading tackler on the team this year, Kyle Hamilton, so expect the big play UNC offense to test them early and often and look for the big plays they’ve been hitting all season, ranking 2nd in 30+ yard plays. This is a revenge game for Mack Brown and this Notre Dame team is not the same with their offense losing 4 year starter Ian Book nor is their defense since losing their defensive coordinator guru - Clark Lea. I bought this to 4 at my bookie and you should too but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Tar Heels pull off the upset on the road against the 6-1 team who has had a pretty soft schedule to date. Tar Heels are also coming off a bye week and Notre Dame is coming off a double digit win against USC but a game where they were outgained in yards per play and had quite a few red zone stops to make the win appear larger than it really did - much like what happened against Wisconsin too.

BYU/UVA over 64.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units

I couldn’t believe my eyes when I read the situational total trends for BOTH of these teams have gone under in 6 of 8 games they’ve played. My spreadsheet lights up GREEN in every category for both teams - indicating STRONG advantages for the offenses for both teams. Across all FEI stats, Virginia’s offense outranks BYU’s defense by 61 ranks. BYU’s offense outranks UVA’s (HORRIBLE) defense by 70 ranks. At the line of scrimmage same thing, with Virginia's offensive line outranking by 31 ranks on average across all categories and BYU’s offensive line by 40 ranks. PFF, equally mismatched, with positional offensive matchups outranking their defensive counterparts by an average of 40 ranks for UVA and an average of 85 ranks for BYU (85 ranks!). I’ve talked a lot about Brennan Armstrong and his receiving corps as I back UVA a lot, and there isn't a defense they can’t put up big numbers against if they are in sync. BYU’s Jaren Hall has shown improvement every week in PFF scales and currently ranks 16th overall - he has more weapons than Brennan as his receivers are ranked 6th overall according to PFF. Both defenses suck on 3rd downs and both offenses are great on 3rd down. Both team defenses give up a ton of big plays, and both offenses account for big plays. Yada yada yada. Easy game to fire away on the over especially with the nice situational trend in favor of the under for both teams forcing oddsmakers to put a lower number then expectations to balance the market.


Week 9 Adds:

MSU TT Under 23 (-110) .5x

Michigan -4 (-109) .5x

Arizona State -16 (-105)

Minnesota -7.5 (-105)

California ML (+108)

Washington +2.5 (+100)

Michigan -4 (-109) Risking .55 units to win .5 units

MSU TT Under 23 (-110) Risking .55 units to win .5 units

I think Michigan wins this one easily to be honest but taking the TT under and the points for half a unit to be safe as that many points is concerning in these big rivalry matchups. Last year Michigan State was a 21 point underdog and came out with the upset - so it’s time for revenge. The numbers show much stronger advantages to Michigan - with a harder SOS. I think Sagarin was a bit generous SOS ranking of 56th for Michigan State as not one of their opponents has a winning record. The two halfway decent defenses Michigan State has faced gave up only 20 points against Indiana and 23 points against Nebraska - but this Michigan defense is definitely a tier up from those two teams by the numbers. Michigan’s is a slightly better SOS with more impressive wins and stats through-out and leads in many more categories. The key stats on offense AND defense - Michigan has strong advantages -- 3rd down %, 4th down %, and red zone scoring %. FEI shows strong advantages too with Michigan offense outranking by an average of 20 ranks across all FEI stats and Michigan’s defense outranking MSU’s offense by 32 ranks across all FEI stats. Michigan is much more disciplined, ranking 34th vs 95th in penalties per play. They also make less mistakes, nor give up many sacks as Cade McNamara seems to maneuver great in the pocket and doesn’t make the dumb desperation throws. If it comes down to a kick we have the better kicker too so we can squeeze one out but I don’t think it will be necessary. This was my first write-up of the week, but was waiting in hopes it would drop 3. Now the whole world seems to be on Michigan State yet the line hasn't budged and I even saw it drop to -4.5 in some places? Good indicator that Michigan is the right side as well even though I don’t hold a lot of weight on line movement (as the bookies control that and who knows what those crazy a$$holes are up to)

Arizona State -16 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units

How many times in history will you get to bet on a team that lost half its coaching staff, including its head coach for not getting vaccinated? This is the first and is sadly the new norm as big PHARMA implements it’s control over our individual rights (don’t get me started). Interesting tidbit I discovered in looking into play calling duties. Washington State lost one of it’s co-offensive coordinator Stutzman, as well as Rolovich and a number of other assistants. Brian Smith, the other co-offensive coordinator is now the play caller and defensive coordinator was made the head coach. Do you know who called the plays all season? Brian Smith called the majority of the plays the first 4 games when they went 1-3 and then STUTZMAN took over for the California game which led to the 3 game win streak and the offensive spark. So Smith averaged 17.25 points per game (not including his FCS game) and Stutzman averaged 28.6 points per game. Sure they kept their first game with BYU close, but I’m sure BYU didn’t know what to expect (and more reasons to like them this week). ASU had a bye last week to study up. By the numbers, Arizona State has very strong advantages on the offensive side of the ball, as Washington State’s defense has been piss poor, especially their run game that ranks 90th in PFF and allowing 4.7 yards per carry (ranking 92). This is where Arizona State THRIVES as they average 5.5 yards per carry, rank 16th in PFF running, and 18th in PFF run blocking. The line of scrimmage stats show this same huge mismatch as Arizona State outranks Washington State by 61 ranks across all categories. Even on the defensive line, Arizona State has an advantage as they outrank Washington State in almost every category and by an average of 16 ranks. ASU is great in the pass rush, and rank 10th in sack%, a place where Washington State struggles without a mobile QB, they rank 59th in sack%. FEI shows more mismatches on both sides of the ball, ASU offense outranks WSU defense by average of 32 ranks. ASU defense outranks WSU offence by an average of 47 ranks. Even without the coaching debacle, ASU has a strong edge in the numbers. Utah was able to stop the Arizona run game to contain the offense, but Washington State will not be able to. Lets go Sun Devils - and I guess this is square too bc of the coach firings but I bet on T. Tech with the fired coach! (and frick you big Pharma for stealing our rights - I’m not against vaccinations, I’m against stealing individual rights and handing them to the big corporations that have a long history of neglecting quality control, putting profits over human lives, and lying about drug side-effects. AHHH that's it, no politics - ALL FOOTBALL!)

California ML (+108) Risking 1 units to win 1.08 units

Got my tin-foil hat on for this one as the numbers I tend to look at and analyze for games won’t show you a huge advantage to California, but the market line speaks differently. On one side, you have a team that’s 2-5 with it’s only two wins being Colorado and FCS team Sacramento State, and on the other you have 5-2 Oregon State (and 5-2 ATS). In the last two years they’ve faced off, Oregon State has won and covered - and you finna tell me this game’s a PICK EM!? Bookies are begging you to take Oregon State as something dictates a big PAC 12 upset as they all seem to be eating each other up - and I think it happens again this week in Cal. Cal was actually one of my fav teams from the eye test coming into the season they were one of the only team total bets I made for the season - over 6 - and it’s been bad to this point but I think we somehow pull off a win as despite the poor record, Cal was right in the game to win against TCU and Oregon last week. Oregon State’s weakness is their secondary as they rank 83rd in PFF, and have been horrible on 3rd downs, ranking 126th in 3rd down conv %. Both offensive lines have strong advantages and both FEI numbers show strong advantages to the offenses - with poor defensively tackling. Expect a high-scoring affair and every season I like to bust out a few “tin-foil hat” specials and this is definitely one of them! I already see a few squares on the Beavers and sharps on the Bears.

Washington +2.5 (+100) Risking 1 unit to win 1 unit

Love betting a 1-6 ATS team against an inferior team! Washington has had some growing pains this season but are starting to gel together. Both of these teams can't run the ball very well averaging 3.5 yards per carry, but both defenses have given up a ton of yardage on the ground. So this game will probably come down to the passing game where we have a STRONG advantage in the secondary as Washington’s secondary is one of the best in the nation ranking 3rd according to PFF (Stanford’s secondary ranks 74th). They've only given up 5.2 yards per pass (ranking 3rd) , where Stanford has given up 7.1 yards per pass. Also strong advantages on 3rd down conv % as Washington offense ranks #17 and #1 in red zone scoring as they scored in every red zone opportunity. Stanford is just average in those categories and have struggled on offense in 3rd down ranking 93rd. Much better tacklers as Stanford ranks 92nd in tackling and Washington ranks 55th. They are much more disciplined, ranking #17th in penalties per play, where Stanford ranks 103rd. They have a better turnover margin and kicker has hit more FG’s at a higher percentage. Sorry for the short writeup as I’m pressed for time this morning! Buy to 3!

Minnesota -7.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units

Again buy this to 7, I just get screwed on all my lines as I track on pick monitor (ALL HANDICAPPERS SHOULD USE 3rd PARTY VERIFICATION TRACKERS! WE NEED THIS TO ROOT OUT THE SCAMDICAPPERS AND BS’ERS WHO CAN'T ADD/TRACK THEIR OWN UNITS AND INFEST THE SPORTS GAMBLING COMMUNITY) Not much time for writeup this morning but just know Minnesota leads in all the stats I compare, significantly, and the stronger SOS. Mismatches on both sides of the ball in PFF, FEI, and Offensive/Defensive line. This should be an easy one like when Duke blew them out.


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