I've been on a roll lately to recoup some big losses in baskeball, so I'll have to see if I can hit 3 in a row tonight!
Its Sacramento Kings at +3.5
I saw it has since moved down to +2.5 and I apologize I didn't post sooner, so in these situations I compare the moneylines because when the spread is such a small number as this, I believe that there's usually still value in the moneyline. It often moves more slowly than the spread does to match up in percentage value.
The same as the 2 picks for the last 2 nights, OKC has been getting pounded by the public, and the line initially was moving in their favor despite this action. This is a possible strong indicator that the books are swaying the public to OKC for tonights game. However, it has since been moving back towards Sacramento indicating the house it now taking on too much risk with OKC and they need to balance it a bit.
Using reverse line movement isn't something new to me or my system, but I never really relied on it as strongly until recently. My record was sucking, needed some tweaking, and so far it has been working well. I still use alot of algorithms, statistical analysis, consultation with respected cappers, etc. in my picking process, but I've given RLM and betting against the public a bigger percentage of the whole analysis that I use to form a conclusion. Lets see if it works again tonight.
Sacramento Kings ML