Over the years I've been experimenting with various power ranking systems that use beating the closing line as the main metric of measure. Early on (2012 to 2013) for a couple years it worked well in the in the big 4 leagues, but after a couple years it stopped producing results so I scrapped it. Been experimenting a lot since then with the main focus on BCL, waiting for 1k plays before scrapping each idea as failures. Most of these ranking systems produced plays heavy on either dogs or favorites, when what I really wanted was a system that produced a good mix with an average odds goal of around -110.
I've since ditched the idea of using BCL as the main metric in experimentation, I liked it in theory because it seemed like something not many were doing and BCL when measured correctly does produce a mathematical edge against the vigorish. My latest experiment with a power ranking system is more focused on expected value. I've also simplified my approach. In the past with my BCL rankings I was using decimals, now I'm using only whole numbers to separate teams.
It's still beta and with the NHL I only have 81 plays documented here over the last 90 days. But I am pleased so far. The average odds placed so far are -113, which is right around where I want to be (-110), the BCL is slightly over 50% but I'm not really concerned with that metric yet as I will only be using it to decide timing of plays. The ROI is at 3.92% after 81 documented plays, which is promising, if it continues to hold up, but still way too early and I will have to wait for next season to see if it continues.
This is the last series of the season, so I thought why not put a play out there and see what happens. My Power rankings do give Dallas a slight edge in at least the first 2 games of the series. So I'm on Dallas tonight at +134, and will be taking them in game 2 as well. Follow at your own peril, and if you do... make sure to shop around for the best number. So far as I type this, the PM community is favoring TB 8 plays to 5 plays. What is everyone else's thoughts on tonight's game?
My play: DALLAS STARS Moneyline +134