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Dallas Stars 4 vs Tampa Bay Lightning 1

Dallas Stars Tampa Bay Lightning - NHL OT Included Hockey - 9/19/20 7:35PM
Saturday, 9/19
21 Dallas Stars
+1.5 -190
+135
Ov 5 -128
22 Tampa Bay Lightning
-1.5 +169
-150
Un 5 +114

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bleacherbum bleacherbum
Tampa Bay Lightning -149
9/18/20 4:15pm Risked 3 units to win 2.01
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725512.7NHL OT Included Hockey
564412.19NHL OT Included Hockey moneyline

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Dallas Stars Vs Tampa Bay Lightning 9-19-2020 0 views

Over the years I've been experimenting with various power ranking systems that use beating the closing line as the main metric of measure. Early on (2012 to 2013) for a couple years it worked well in the in the big 4 leagues, but after a couple years it stopped producing results so I scrapped it. Been experimenting a lot since then with the main focus on BCL, waiting for 1k plays before scrapping each idea as failures. Most of these ranking systems produced plays heavy on either dogs or favorites, when what I really wanted was a system that produced a good mix with an average odds goal of around -110.

I've since ditched the idea of using BCL as the main metric in experimentation, I liked it in theory because it seemed like something not many were doing and BCL when measured correctly does produce a mathematical edge against the vigorish. My latest experiment with a power ranking system is more focused on expected value. I've also simplified my approach. In the past with my BCL rankings I was using decimals, now I'm using only whole numbers to separate teams.

It's still beta and with the NHL I only have 81 plays documented here over the last 90 days. But I am pleased so far. The average odds placed so far are -113, which is right around where I want to be (-110), the BCL is slightly over 50% but I'm not really concerned with that metric yet as I will only be using it to decide timing of plays. The ROI is at 3.92% after 81 documented plays, which is promising, if it continues to hold up, but still way too early and I will have to wait for next season to see if it continues.

This is the last series of the season, so I thought why not put a play out there and see what happens. My Power rankings do give Dallas a slight edge in at least the first 2 games of the series. So I'm on Dallas tonight at +134, and will be taking them in game 2 as well. Follow at your own peril, and if you do... make sure to shop around for the best number. So far as I type this, the PM community is favoring TB 8 plays to 5 plays. What is everyone else's thoughts on tonight's game?


My play: DALLAS STARS Moneyline +134


3

I'm with you on Dallas. My model has them +113 tonight so good value at any price above +130. The Stars should be the favorite in games 3, 4, and 6 with the last line change. They likely will be the underdog in those games, so certainly there will be value on the Stars.

2

I agree. I think Dallas will win and there is a bunch of value to be had here throughout the series. Dallas is not in the final by chance, not sure why there is so much value on them.

2

Game 2. Tampa was massively overpriced in game 1 due to public perception, and Dallas rewarded value bettors with a win. However, game 2 has a price that's closer to reality and currently doesn't offer much value. My model has Tampa -126 (55.8%) , which is Dallas +126 (44.2%) on a true line. Tampa is still overpriced, but Dallas +136 (42.4%) only offers a 1.8% edge in price. Every handicapper has to determine what edge is playable. The lower the playable edge, the higher the short-term volatility. Personally I use 4% in the NHL to trigger a bet, so the Stars would need to get to +148 (40.3%) for me to consider them.

Game 2 is a pass. Tampa is likely to be a big favorite it game 3, especially if they win game 2. Dallas gets the last line change in game 3, so we should get a great value price on them.

2

I was thinking Dallas would be a small favorite in game 3 or close to a pickem. Game 5 is where I think we will see some good value again.

1

Yes Dallas should be the favorite in game 3, but they won't be. The books know the public bet Tampa in the first 2 games, and nothing happened to change the public's mind. And the public won't even consider how the last line change affects the game, so I think we will see very little adjustment to the line.

My model has Dallas -111 for game 3. I would bet them at +106 or better. I think we will get something in the +130 range, but grab the opening line if it has value because sharp money will eventually show up on the Stars and drive the price down.

2

You're right the number is +138 for tomorrow. That line is very much off, must have to do with COVID and playing with no fans? In a normal playoff you wouldn't see this. Getting the last change is part of what makes home ice so valuable in the NHL. Gonna bet it now.

2

Yes the public just considers all these games as neutral ice, which is why there hasn't been any price adjustment in any of the playoff series between games 2 and 3. The books obviously know the value of last change, but why give the public a fair price on Tampa when they are going to bet them regardless of what price is posted. This has happened in every series in the bubble. I did predict this at the beginning of the bubble, and tried explaining how to price "home ice" in the bubble.


Home In The Bubble 116 views

EppleySportsPosts

With the NBA and NHL playing all games on neutral courts / ice, should any consideration be given to the listed home team? In the NHL, the home team gets to make the last line change, which allows them to get favorable match-ups. So you should still give .10 or .15 cents to the listed home team, depending on the quality of coaching. That's slightly lower than what would normally be given to a traditional home team with fans. Obviously that emotional push from fans is missing.

In the NBA there's no quantitative edge to being listed as the home team. Teams don't get more time outs or get the ball first or last, etc. It's true that role players shoot better when there's not a hostile crowd, but this is true for both teams so being listed as home team is insignificant. So don't add the normal 4 or 5 points to the home team in the bubble games.

3

9/25/20 5:05PM Tampa Bay Lightning vs Dallas Stars

Dallas Stars +134
8:59am Risked 1 unit to win 1.34

Tampa should be -114, a 53.3% chance to win, so they are obviously way overpriced as they have been the whole series. Dallas +134 is a 42.7% chance to win, but the actual chance is 46.7% so we get a 4% edge in price. If you wait closer to game time, it's possible you might get +140 as the public almost certainly will bet Tampa at any price.

One of the most difficult things sports bettors struggle to learn is understanding why you're making a bet that's more likely to lose than to win. Nearly all recreational bettors just bet the team they think is probably going to win, but pro's bet the value in numbers to gain a long-term advantage. If this game were played 1000 times under the exact same circumstances, Tampa would win 533 times and at -153 would lose -$11,863.12 per $100 bet. Dallas would win 467 times and at +134 would win +$9278 per $100 bet.

Recreational bettors try to figure out which team is going to win today, but pro's just look for value in the lines and prices. If you want to win in the long-term, learn to bet numbers and not teams.

3

What did your models have for the previous matchups between DAL/VEG and TB/NYI? Did DAL or NYI have similar edges in those matchups that DAL has vs TB?

1

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