"funny things" happen in the NFL, especially during prime time games. As a sports fanatic, i'd like to believe that the game is what it is, sometimes bad calls happen....or series of bad calls until the desired results are guaranteed. Refs aren't machines, maybe they had money on the game, or was thinking bout the Colts situation, they're suppose to be mechanical but the adrenaline rush, maybe deep down they wanted to give the Colts another chance. Coulda been ref didn't want Colts to think about drafting Luck.. i dunno i'm just blabbering.
If this is ur business, and ur selling a product to a client...u have to account for those factors. Isn't capping making an educated guess with the knowledge/info we have at the moment? A few cappers i know played Houston 1Q, and the Houston 1H's cause i'm sure they felt there was a bigger picture but wasn't completely certain to play the Colts ml. Too many theories and too many funny coincidences. Games with a higher risk factor should just be avoided period.
I know its easier for me to point it out now, that the game is over. But i always go back over the games, to see if i got lucky, or if it was the right play. and will record it for future reference. Colts/Jags/Browns are horrible 1Q teams. Houston on the other hand, one of the best 1Q teams. All they had to do was hand the ball off to Foster. but by the end of the half, u could see the shift in momentum. Foster was averageing 6 yards per carry, even with that 1 big 29yard scamper. yet they were 0/4 on 3rd downs. and Colts were moving the ball well, just couldn't capitalize. Shoulda been 10-9 but missed FG and was 10-6. Seeing the line at +3/19.5 and given the situation, i felt Colts showed that they could keep the game close, and if they catch a few breaks (quite a few more then i expected) they'd have a chance to pull it out. So 2H i played Colts -4+385, and as soon as i pressed submit, it wen tto +350. then i felt pretty confident about it. and shiit happens. its the NFL.
Only way u truly learn is if u lose, lose enough times, by enough different ways, u realize its not 1 play or 1 call. just sequences, leading up to that point. everything is part of the game. and yet not 1 play really changed the outcome of the game. Its not that the NFL is the toughest sport to cap, its just everyone and their mom thinks they know the NFL. Sometimes u win making a bad play, and sometimes u lose making the right play. Our minds plays tricks on us, when we win, we'll sweep it under the rug. When we lose,its cause of the bad calls. or they got lucky. There's a reason that only 1% of us really succeed. the rest are just delusional and keep making excuses. thats why the book always win. cause they want us to think if not for those ad calls, so we keep coming back. Thats why i don't cap anymore, just flip a coin. and place the bet. (finally found a coin thats brought me luck for 3 seasons) wow... i just realized i wrote alot, and not sure if any of it makes sense to anyone but me. 3am, Yagger bombs and painkillers will do that for ya =p good nite