Tampa Bay Lightning 6 vs Montreal Canadiens 3

Tampa Bay Lightning Montreal Canadiens - NHL Hockey - 7/2/21 8:08PM
Friday, 7/2
11 Tampa Bay Lightning
-1.5 +206
Ov 5 -128
12 Montreal Canadiens
+1.5 -234
Un 5 +114

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Tampa Bay Lightning -127
7/2/21 5:36pm Risked 5 units to win 3.94
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OVER 5 -128
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Tampa Bay Lightning Vs Montreal Canadiens 7-2-2021 0 views

GAME 3 (TB leads series 2 - 0)

Injuries - Alex Killorn will be sitting out again this evening.

As in the previous two contests, this game should be fast and competitive from the opening faceoff. Tonight, the Montreal Canadiens will attempt to achieve their first win on home ice as an underdog versus the Lightning since January l4, 2018. They have lost 4 consecutive since then by scores 4-3, 4-1, 3-1, and 2-1. Of note, the Canadiens last win at Bell against Tampa Bay was 4-2 on April 2, 2019, as a favorite.

Montreal is currently listed as a home underdog (+117) tonight. The problem I have with this is my personal handicapping has the Canadiens as a slight favorite, and believe the line will continue to move downward ending approximately +110 or so by game time. Therefore, I have no alternative but to put my money on Montreal in this scenario.

In the previous two games, Montreal has been the initial aggressor, creating scoring opportunities, but failing to capitalize (Vasilevskiy may have something to do with this). In both games, Tampa Bay has been able to stave off Montreal, ultimately scoring that most important first goal. Canadiens' fans will be thankful since Montreal will pot the first goal tonight.

Through two games, the officials are calling, on average, one penalty per team, per period. So expect the same tonight, few penalties. Do not expect this to determine the outcome since this game will be heading into OT once the final regulation buzzer sounds.

Take MTL (+116), MTL O 2.5 (+112), TB U 2.5 (+104), and enjoy OT where MTL defeats TB by a score of 3-2.

Good luck everyone :)

Edited 7/2/21 at 12:49PM by Timothy Wynn - formatting


EppleySports awarded 48865 tokens for this post.

Interesting line read from WagerTalk concerning tonights game for what it's worth. It doesn't seem to me to be a slam dunk tonight for Montreal but the money says otherwise. Wiseguy or square money?

Montreal has 61% of all tickets and 92% of all money.

UNDER has 57% of all tickets and 83% of all money.


Timothy Wynn awarded 500 tokens for this post.

Things are more settled now.

Montreal now has 63% of tickets and 65% of money, a significant money% change

The UNDER has 54% of tickets and 72% of money.

The only thing that I gained from following this since this afternoon is that I am now more confused than earlier concerning any movement being significant. Probably reading into very little here since I'm no expert at line movement but I will agree with Timothy Wynn on the result, we should see a better performance from Montreal tonight which can hopefully make this a better series. Thanks for another nice writeup.


Timothy Wynn awarded 250 tokens for this post.

Thanks @onepickpony, much appreciated. Just an FYI, BETONLINE now has Montreal +111, so it appears one of my predictions is very close to being on point, with about an hour to game time. In addition, the draw odds remain +290 (BETONLINE) from my last update on the OT forum thread. No matter the final result, this should be an entertaining game nevertheless :)

SUPPLEMENTAL - Just as I finished this thread post, BETONLINE moved the line to Montreal +110 lol Funny stuff :)

Edited 7/2/21 at 7:20PM by Timothy Wynn - supplemental note added


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