New York Giants 36 vs Carolina Panthers 7

New York Giants At Carolina Panthers - NFL Football - 9/20/12 8:20PM
Thursday, 9/20
303 New York Giants
+2.5 +110
Ov 48.5 -107
304 Carolina Panthers
-2.5 -120
Un 48.5 -103

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New York Giants Vs Carolina Panthers 9-20-2012 0 views

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I like your sucker theory you have outlined above. I feel the sucker would have played Broncos on Monday and now they try to go even with the Giants, and now face to lose double. I mean how could Giants blow this +2.5 point spread, they are last years Super Bowl Champions. This game I had lined up all week for Panthers +1. Then the line moved, making me second guess myself due to the loss in points. However, +1 is not much of point spread to begin with. Giants seemed so beat up from the Bucs game. Buccaneers played hard and Giants seem to be feeling it with all the injuries. Another thing to consider is Giants 4th quarter comeback win, could result in Giants bounce this game. Especially with all the injuries Giants have. I also hear the Giants secondary is banged up as well. I am still leaning towards Panthers at -2.5. However, I do fear Eli could orchestrate some sort of win or cover, after what I saw last week, but this week he his missing RB-Bradshaw, WR-Nicks, and WR-Hixon. This is not going to be the same team that beat the much improved Bucs last week. So I would have to say still leaning towards Panther -2.5
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I feel like with the line movement and with more and more people taking the Panthers this is a tough call. Are all the injured Giants players worth the 3.5/4 point shift is the question?
Just playing devils advocate here. So why are the bet %s in favor of the Giants 54% to 46%, including a 62% advantage in the exotics? Do you think this late injury information was after all this Giant money has been placed? The line movement is very weird implying that Carolina has taken all the money which they haven't.

Edited 9/20/12 at 4:28PM by Spreadratings - No reason listed.

Since the injury reports were released, there has been increasing # of bets on the Panthers. Panthers were getting about 29% before and now they are getting the 46% you stated against the spread. I still think regardless of all the injury reports a lot of people are still going to back the Giants. The injuries on the Giants has started to attract interest in the Panthers, but the line movement for the Panthers is more of an adjustment due to the injury report and less with money in my opinion.
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Thanks for the post, chagz. It might be worthwhile to break down the Thursday night game further, to determine if the home team wins more than 60% if they also do not have to travel. That is, if they played at home on the prior Sunday, would the ATS % be even better? That is obviously the case for Carolina tonight.

Edited 9/20/12 at 4:47PM by jasshs - No reason listed.

That Thursday stat is pretty cool. Makes a lot of sense. Road team has shorter practice time due to travel. Home team gets an edge by staying home, basically getting extra day to practice over the road team.
That extra day maybe only significant if they stayed at home, though? This seems to be the case for most (but not all) of the games scheduled this season. I am taking Turkey day out of the mix here, and just want to analyze the single games on Thursdays.

Giants have yet to play a full 60minutes. Road games make you focus. Plus Tom C's kinda angry. They Panthers will feel the brunt of his anger. I like how the Giants managed the rushing against last week. That will be important for them against the Panthers. Don't feel like there's a lot of edge here, but I do think the public is under-estimating the Giants.

One thing a lot of people are over looking is the return of CB Prince Amukamara. The Giants secondary should improve after playing without Amukamara the first two games. Guys like WR Ramses Barden and top draft pick WR Jernnigan will need to step up since WR Nicks is out. I actually feel RB Andre Brown and RB David Wilson can replace Bradshaw's production. Cam Newton is dangerous since he has the ability to run and throw with supreme accuracy. This game will depend on the Chemistry Eli has with his other receivers since WR Victor Cruz will see plenty of double team coverage by the Panthers tonight.

This is a classic situation of a reverse line movement where the Giants by taking the majority of the money should be a higher favorite but are actually now the dog. Money always moves the line but when this happens the sharps have gotten involved in the game. While the general betting public has the Giants, the reverse line movement favors the Panthers. Chagz, you may be right on with your initial description of this game which was a very nice writeup of your reasoning.

If you rely on studying line movement to make your wagers then you are doing exactly what Vegas wants you to do...line movements tell you one thing...where the money is going, however no one knows if this is sharp money, syndicate money, or public money or a combination of the three...I use stats and the general location of the line to make picks with a system, in this case the system picks the Giants and the line movement in my favor is greatly appreciated!
My lean has turned official. Panthers up to -3. Good luck tonight everyone. I still feel too many people like the Giants regardless of the spread percentages saying it is even now.

I think this line movement has little to do with money at this point. I feel it is primarily injury related. When the injury reports are released the books will adjust the line immediately to stay one step ahead. I use stats too, but stats do not know when certain players are not able to play. If the game was straight up even, all players 100% on a regular Sunday, then the Panthers -2.5/-3 would not be a good bet.

TBS...I agree with you to a certain extent...the line move from PK to Panthers (-1.5) was because of the injuries, but now the money is pushing the line even higher...and trying to say that is because the sharp money is doing it or the public is doing it is exactly what Vegas wants you to do...don't let line movement and who is doing the movement decide your play...however if the line movement moves out of my system's range then I would make it a no play...

I see a lot of people mentioning where the money is going but you have to keep in mind those consenses numbers you are getting from Sports Insights, Vegas Insider, Don Best, Etc. are BETS ONLY. They are not stating how much money is on a side. No book I know of has ever released figures of how much they have on sides. Only the number of bets. It's one more way for them to think they are helping you but it's really through smoke and mirrors. You have to dig deep and study hard to have a quality guess as to who's on what.

Square Player A bets $100 on the Giants and Sharp Player B bets $10,000 on the Panthers. Pinnacle only releases that 1-1 bet figure or 50% when really 99.009% of the money wagered is on the Panthers.

I feel those figures can do more to harm you then help unless you really study and know what you are looking at.

Edited 9/20/12 at 5:29PM by Parker - No reason listed.

# of bets on each side is just another tool to use when you are handicapping and combined with other tools and methods it can be very helpful. If you are blindly following bet percentages then you will probably loss in the long run. There has been lots of talk on this site about line movement. The sharps can be wrong just as much as the squares. Comes down to how you handicap games and whether you can distinguish which side of the consensus is right.
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