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Gilles Simon 2 vs Gael Monfils 0

Thailand Open - Bangkok, Thailand - ATP Tennis - 9/28/12 1:00AM
Friday, 9/28
107 Gilles Simon
OFF
+140
OFF
108 Gael Monfils
OFF
-150
OFF

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Gilles Simon Vs Gael Monfils 9-28-2012 0 views

I don't see any worse opponent for Monfils than Simon.
As I've said before Monfils is coming from a long time of inactivity due to his injury, and I can't see him playing for two consecutive weeks at a high level. In first round I bet against Monfils but although we saw a very weak Monfils in the second and third set he managed to win the game against Anderson, the only point is that he won it in 2 hours and 35 minutes, today I was thinking of betting on Troicki but I didn't pull the trigger as Troicki is playing really bad lately and I was right, Monfils has won in straight sets but the detail is that he has played for one hour and 52 minutes. He has no day to rest and tomorrow is gonna play in the first turn of games so his rest will be even lower.
Against him will be Simon, that guy just only pass the ball to the other half of the court and waits for the opponent error, he's gonna make this game longer and longer and that's simply what he needs to beat Monfils, if he can take long points he's gonna be in a great position to win.
What I've seen so far in the tournament is that although we're in an indoor court the surface is slow enough to allow players to play long points.
Also Simon has been preparing this Asian tour since he has finished the US Open and when he has played in here he has had good results, in 2009 he won this tournament and last year he arrived to semifinals.
I expect a long game with breaks from both players, what I also see is Simon far superior in an hypothetic third set so I really like the odds on him.
2

GL guys. I gotta vote this one as tough to predict and no value. Something like 57% monfils / -132 moneyline. Simon has been dealing with a shoulder injury.

I'm wary of both these players lately as they are not in their best form.

2
I'd say the better investment would be on the Over. If you're thinking it's going to be a hard fought match (which I expect the same), we should expect the game total to go over 23. If Simon forces a third set, you're good. Sometimes I look, especially when betting tennis (which is rare), at what I don't think will happen. In this case, I doubt Simon wins in straight sets. If so happen he does, I'd expect there to be at least one set where he'll have to get to 7 games, which points again to the over. Just my two cents. BOL on whatever you decide.

Edited 9/27/12 at 6:40PM by KBGuster - No reason listed.

3

You might be right KBGuster, the over should seem as the most safe investment in here but I see more value in Simon, if we look at previous matchs between both we see that in all games they have played a third set, the point is that I think that if Simon gets the first one he's very likely to win in straight sets as Monfils should see the game as impossible being one set behind and physically diminished.

I'm not saying that the over is a bad play in here, in fact I like it, as I see Monfils favorite in the first set but not in the whole game but I'll stick with Simon as I think is even better play.

2

Looks like I don't agree with anyone on this one actually Galdeort lol. I definitely disagree with you least though. And also I agree with you on your other current choices. I had a rare losing day yesterday, but the night before when we chatted was good, as you probably guessed.

I think the over is valuable in a lot of the upcoming matches in women's (hint, hint), but not on this one. I also believe this is a prime game with good "value," or better phrased, not one to lay off of.

This is going to be really really difficult to explain. First of all I think the fact Monfils made it to the semis in his last tournament is a great factor. He's a top seed even though ranked lower than Simon. Simon lost to Davydenko recently who is also in this tournament I believe. Monfils tends to lose to players who aren't strictly volleyers. The H2H history here includes the most recent match a win for Monfils, a clay court win for Simon, and a 1 set all retirement by Monfils for a Simon win. Considering most matches with this type of H2H history, I can't tell you how much it favors Monfils. I also really like the matches Monfils had to play to get to this point, different competitors with a different range of skill. Basically his draw is much more favorable than Simon's. Like I said hard to explain. I don't think the matches Simon has played to get to this point were good preparation. They were perhaps more difficult than Monfils, but I don't like the progression. I also don't like Simon's state in the game of Tennis. I think in a couple years we'll be seeing him fade away. As of several months ago I've thought this about him. The loss to Davydenko and some other dissapointments have shown his loss of edge. His YTD is 35-20. Considering who he's been playing, 20 losses is a lot for a guy ranked 19th. He's lost to Haas, Malisse, Bolleli, Dolgopolov this year. Although he did beat Tsonga. He has won a title this year. He is also friends with Monfils. Personally I think he's overrated. He was up to ranked 6th in 2009. He moved to almost 50th in 2010, back down to 11th last year, and recently around 20th. He seems to have his best success against players ranked 35-, and gets pushed around by what everyone else is doing ahead of him. I've seen the guy hit the ball a few times in person. It's no match for Monfils if Monfils shows up mentally. Basically he's on his way back down again, and Monfils is on his way back up. Monfils should be able to pass him in rank or come close within 6-8 months. Now that Monfils is back fresh from injury, I see him as getting more and more invincible before he reaches his potential again. Simon is more ready to lose this one than Monfils, that's the best sentence I can give to explain the -155.

4

Looks like Simon has this one on his raquet, Gaeldort! He is currently a set and a break ahead. I was going to ask why you kept opposing the player with the same first name lol. Either way nicely done on this very entertaining match.

1
Hahahahahaha nice one atthehelm, the fact is I really enjoy your write ups but then you surprise me with your bet, after reading your whole explanation then I look and I see you're with Simon, I can't really understand your logic then
1

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