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Green Bay Packers 42 vs Houston Texans 24

Green Bay Packers At Houston Texans - NFL Football - 10/14/12 8:30PM
Sunday, 10/14
231 Green Bay Packers
+4 -107
+180
Ov 46.5 -105
232 Houston Texans
-4 -103
-195
Un 46.5 -105

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Green Bay Packers Vs Houston Texans 10-14-2012 0 views

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No opinion, I often get drawn into the "can't lose/can't win forever/good team/bad team" theory myself. It's not a bad theory, but it can go south if you happen to apply it to the wrong team and are stubborn. I was guilty of that fading UCONN 2 years ago in just about every NCAA Tourney game when they won the title. They have to lose this week. They have to lose this week. I was on repeat and they never lost.
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My mind tells me GB +4, but my eye's have told me Houston is the better team @ -6.. so I'm staying away from this game
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Green Bay's pass defense is horrible. Their offensive line is a joke giving up 21 sacks in the last 5 games (if you watched the 1st half of the Seattle game you know what I mean). Combine that with Houston's 16 sacks this year and it could be a long day for Mr. Rodgers neighborhood. Last week Green Bay was a full touchdown favorite over the Colts and they blew it... to a team that just got lit up by the Jet's today. And yet I am still taking the Packers with the points this week. The power rankings I have put together for this week set this line at 3 which points to clear value for the Pack being a full point above that key number. From a "feel" perspective I also believe it is a correct play... a loss is a loss but most people agree that GB should have gotten a win against a tough Seattle team. Green Bay also dominated the Bears who has turned out to be fairly decent this year. I used this same logic against the Jets last week... who has Houston played that makes their 5-0 record so great? A middle of the road Denver team? That's about it. Their opponents have been a who's who of bad teams. My point is Houston is good, maybe even real good but not as good as their record and the pundits would lead you to believe... Green Bay on the other hand is the opposite, a better team then the close losses would point to. The Packers wont go easy and there is no reason to believe it wont end with the common NFL last second field goal to be the deciding factor which is why I am glad to be getting the extra point over the 3. I consider it a gift from the bookie gods.

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That's the spirt statdude, this would seem like excellent timing to use GB in a 7 point teaser. Good write up Parker. Chagz, very close to call. Sort of why I got away from NFL. My gut feelings, even when correct, have been over ran by parody. Outside of the first 3 weeks/prime timer/MAYBE playoffs, I doubt I will ever touch NFL again. Props to those that can beat it with consistency.

Edited 10/14/12 at 6:41PM by Mike McClain - No reason listed.

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Mike, you are wise.

Much of my winnings from tennis and mlb past two years... dumped into NFL

Lesson learned..Size your positions based on your ROI in that sport!

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Thanks statdude, beating the book is hard enough. I think it's best to reach for as much low hanging fruit as possible.
3

Beating individual sports I think it depends so much on the person, the type of logic used, their approach to wagering, how much time they spend on it, how much they where around it growing up, and a few other things I am sure I'm missing. I hate wagering on the NFL. I have never found anyone I can trust that puts together a package that works for me consistently. I told myself I would not do it this year... and while I am betting on it, it is for .25% per game and I am doing everything myself to save costs. Gather power rankings, mull over stats, read relevant websites, watch games, etc.

I think the NFL is the worst sport to expect a decent return and yet I read books and listen to podcasts of professional gamblers that only bet the NFL and suck at everything else, ie Steve Fezzik & Billy Walters.

The point is everyone is different and we are all good at seeing certain things that may apply to one sport but not the other but no one is good at seeing them all. That brings the whole issue of year round cappers which seems silly to me. I believe if someone I use is capping year round with all the major sports my guess is they are either leaving value and money on the table by not consolidating their efforts into a couple sports or they already are or will be getting burned out which again will lead to money being left on the table. When you look at the guys who are at the very top of the food chain in this business... I am talking the VERY top like Billy Walters (CFB, NFL), Alan Boston (CBB), Steve Fezzik (NFL), Haralabos Voulgaris (NBA), Right Angle Sports (CFB, CBB, WNBA)... and those are just the public ones, they all stick to one or two sports. I know they dabble in others but it's not their bread and butter and they will be the first to admit it.

Edited 10/14/12 at 7:42PM by Parker - No reason listed.

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It seems like the Texans don't want to win this game. THey basically made a gift to the Packers by keeping the last drive alive twice with two flags. I don't want to jinx it, but I feel like everyone who bet on the Packers tonight will go to bed with a few extra bucks in their pockets!
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