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New York Giants 16 vs Washington Redskins 17

New York Giants At Washington Redskins - NFL Football - 12/3/12 8:40PM
Monday, 12/3
367 New York Giants
-2.5 -110
-132
Ov 50 -103
368 Washington Redskins
+2.5 +100
+122
Un 50 -107

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New York Giants Vs Washington Redskins 12-3-2012 0 views

Some interesting trends for this game:

  • In the last 4 meetings between these two teams the Skins are 4-0 ATS
  • In the 2nd half of the season in games where the opponent is giving up at least 6.0 yards per play (bad defense), Washington is on a 10-0 run ATS outscoring opponents by 10.2 points
  • Mike Shanahan is 28-14 ATS after a road loss to the same opponent (revenge)
  • Mike Shanahan is 22-9 ATS after a close road loss of a touchdown or less to the same opponent (revenge)
  • Washington is 7-2-1 ATS in the 2011 & 2012 seasons against NFC East opponents

The Giants defense stepped up last week allowing only 10 points from Green Bay. This is a small bright spot for a below average defense that relies heavily on their pass rush. If there is one person that will give New York trouble when getting flushed out it's RG3. He really gave the Giants a headache in their first meeting rushing for 89 yards and is performing even better now.

I had 14 plays on my NFL card this week and this one barely made it so I am not overly confident in it. As expected all the consensus reports show heavy action on the Giants spread and I will be waiting until the last minute to place this wager in the hopes that I can get a good price on the +3.

It looks like I am going against the grain here in the kingdom of Pickmonitor as the Giants wagers are outpacing the Skins by more then 2 to 1 therefore I am expecting a lot of dissenting opinions. IMO The Skins have much more motivation tonight to claw their way back into the NFC East race and I look for them to win the game outright.

Good luck

Edited 12/3/12 at 4:25PM by Parker - No reason listed.

3
On the under myself, FWIW. Looking for a NFC slug fest with each team trying to establish the run and control the clock. Rooting for the skins to win as I have been a long suffering Redskins fan for many a year, be nice to see em win on MNF.
2
I have quite a few trends & stats pointing to the under as well but these two defenses scare me. Particularly the Giants... they seem to be getting worse on D. Washington has only been able to keep one team under 21 all year and that was Philly. If I had to make a total play it would be under but I'll stick to the side on this one.
1
Post hidden due to low quality. Show it.
Just reading about how the giants have covered at a 66% clip on the road since Coughlin became coach. Only if I had a crystal ball back in 2004 to know such a stat.
2
Post hidden due to low quality. Show it.

I decided in my analysis to go with game theory instead of line theory. Redskins start fast and could push a lead. But the Giants are good at adjustments. If I had to take a game line, I would take the Giants. Instead, I'm taking first half over and Redskins +1 in the first half.

Now looking at the game itself, if I had to take a game line, I would go with Giants to cover the field goal. I think dow by three, they would score a TD to to those who have -3 and -2.5, their satisfaction.

1

@ Daltonis

I queried some stats based on you comment and found some impressive stuff on Coughlin.

The following is since 2004 (the Coughlin era) and I highlighted the trends pertaining to tonight's game.

Trend ATS Record Cover % MOV ATS +/-
All Games 83-63-4 56.8% 2.2 +0.9
After A Bye 5-5-0 50.0% 8.1 +3.9
After A Win 51-32-1 61.4% 4.2 +2.3
After A Loss 29-26-2 52.7% -0.3 -1.1
As Home Team 34-37-3 47.9% 2.7 -1.6
As Away Team 47-25-1 65.3% 1.7 +3.1
As Favorite 46-42-2 52.3% 4.7 -0.8
As Underdog 37-20-2 64.9% -1.4 +3.6
As Home Favorite 28-32-2 46.7% 3.8 -2.2
As Home Underdog 6-4-1 60.0% -2.7 +2.1
As Away Favorite 18-9-0 66.7% 6.7 +2.4
As Away Underdog 29-16-1 64.4% -1.3 +3.6
Conference Games 65-45-3 59.1% 2.6 +1.3
Non-Conference Games 18-18-1 50.0% 1.1 -0.4
Division Games 29-23-3 55.8% 1.1 +0.6
Non-Division Games 54-40-1 57.4% 2.9 +1.0
Playoff Games 9-2-0 81.8% 2.5 +6.2

1

Ugh... Somebody always has to complain about stats

Fine Kayne... The following is from 2007 and shows very little difference.

Trend ATS Record Cover % MOV ATS +/-
All Games 56-41-3 57.7% 3.0 +1.2
After A Bye 3-4-0 42.9% 11.9 +7.1
After A Win 38-21-1 64.4% 5.4 +3.5
After A Loss 16-17-1 48.5% -0.4 -2.1
As Home Team 21-25-2 45.7% 3.2 -1.9
As Away Team 33-15-1 68.8% 2.8 +4.0
As Favorite 31-30-2 50.8% 4.8 -1.0
As Underdog 25-11-1 69.4% 0.1 +4.9
As Home Favorite 17-23-2 42.5% 3.8 -2.7
As Home Underdog 4-2-0 66.7% -0.7 +3.7
As Away Favorite 14-6-0 70.0% 6.8 +2.9
As Away Underdog 19-9-1 67.9% 0.0 +4.8
Conference Games 43-30-2 58.9% 3.1 +1.5
Non-Conference Games 13-11-1 54.2% 2.9 +0.3
Division Games 17-17-2 50.0% 1.0 -0.1
Non-Division Games 39-24-1 61.9% 4.2 +1.9
Playoff Games 8-1-0 88.9% 6.0 +10.0

4

Parker good stuff. I think u know got love your ya. I do have to agree though Cloughlin has been a different coach since 2007.

3
That Said Give me the Giants -132 Better Road than home team.

Edited 12/3/12 at 7:28PM by eloozhun - No reason listed.

3
I wish Jon Gruden would take one of those coaching jobs cause he really needs to get off TV.
1

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