The matchup in this game is Charlie Morton for Atlanta & Garrett Richards for Boston with Atlanta listed as a slight favorite. So who really is the better team here right now? If the numbers hold up Boston appears to have the pitching advantage in this game which should secure them a win. Richards had a couple rough starts in April with an ERA of 4.94 but has been sneaky good the month of May with a 2.55 ERA in four starts going deeper into games with pitch counts in the 90s. The biggest issue with Richards is getting out of the first inning without blowing up since batters are hitting .342 with a 1.024 OPS. Even worse are his pitch #s 1-15 allowing a .400 BA & 1.171 OPS. After the first inning though he has settled down limiting batters to a .246 BA with a .678 OPS.
Morton needs to keep batters off the bases and he has done that allowing a BA of .155 & .449 OPS with none on. However with runners on, this increases to a BA of .410 & 1.135 OPS. Runners in scoring position increase the OPS even higher to 1.231. Morton will be facing a lineup of predominantly right handed batters who this year have a BA of .274 & OPS of .716 which in this game does not deal to his strength. Morton has noticeably better numbers vs. lefty batters who only have a BA of .185 & OPS of .660. I don't know which Charlie Morton shows up tonight. He has been on again, off again in his 8 starts so far this year and since he was somewhat on in his last start, the trend suggests a regression tonight while Richards seems to have figured it out in May and is trending upward.
Probably a meaningless stat to consider but the Braves are 0-5 vs. the American League this year while the Red Sox are 4-1 vs. the National League.
I would bet the Red Sox on the ML +111 & also take a shot at the 5 inning ML which is now +144. Good luck to all.
Timothy Wynn awarded 250 tokens for this post.