This is the 2nd highest spread between these two teams going back to 2000 with the only higher line in the perfect 2007 New England season when the line closed at -20.5 in which New England failed to cover by over 10 points. In fact going back to 1985 there was only one additional time when in 96 where the Patriots where favored by 13. The point is that this is a very large spread between these two division rivals. 12 points is a lot for any divisional game.
New England has obviously shown a clear advantage in this match-up looking back though any amount of time, even against the spread the Patriots are decidedly the winner. The talent gap between these two teams is large but again, they are still division rivals and know each other well. I don't see New England being in the top 3 or 4 elite teams in the NFL anymore (although close) but at the same time I don't see the Jets in the basement with Oakland and Jacksonville. When teams are expected to have a losing season such as the Jets there is an incredible amount of motivation to beat your division rivals, particularly the ones at the top. My power rankings are telling me the Patriots should be favored in the 9 to 11 range and this number passes my gut test.
New England looks like they may have some big offensive pieces out to injuries on Thursday night (although you can never trust Belichick).
It may be somewhat early in the week but it's not very often the Pick Monitor community favor a dog by almost 2-1, it's rare but I am going to have to agree and see value in any number above 10. I think the Jets defense can do just enough to keep this game close... even with a rookie quarterback.
The Jets are showing up as having the third highest edge for me this week just below Tennessee at +9 and Cleveland at +7. Unfortunately I have not been able to enter any of these picks yet on PM because of 5 Dimes shifted lines. Hopefully I wont see these move against me before Sunday.
Edited 9/11/13 at 6:27PM by Parker - No reason listed.