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New York Jets 10 vs New England Patriots 13

New York Jets At New England Patriots - Week 2 - NFL Football - 9/12/13 8:25PM
Thursday, 9/12
101 New York Jets
+11 -107
+480
Ov 43.5 -103
102 New England Patriots
-11 -103
-570
Un 43.5 -107

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New York Jets Vs New England Patriots 9-12-2013 0 views

This is the 2nd highest spread between these two teams going back to 2000 with the only higher line in the perfect 2007 New England season when the line closed at -20.5 in which New England failed to cover by over 10 points. In fact going back to 1985 there was only one additional time when in 96 where the Patriots where favored by 13. The point is that this is a very large spread between these two division rivals. 12 points is a lot for any divisional game.

New England has obviously shown a clear advantage in this match-up looking back though any amount of time, even against the spread the Patriots are decidedly the winner. The talent gap between these two teams is large but again, they are still division rivals and know each other well. I don't see New England being in the top 3 or 4 elite teams in the NFL anymore (although close) but at the same time I don't see the Jets in the basement with Oakland and Jacksonville. When teams are expected to have a losing season such as the Jets there is an incredible amount of motivation to beat your division rivals, particularly the ones at the top. My power rankings are telling me the Patriots should be favored in the 9 to 11 range and this number passes my gut test.

New England looks like they may have some big offensive pieces out to injuries on Thursday night (although you can never trust Belichick).

It may be somewhat early in the week but it's not very often the Pick Monitor community favor a dog by almost 2-1, it's rare but I am going to have to agree and see value in any number above 10. I think the Jets defense can do just enough to keep this game close... even with a rookie quarterback.

The Jets are showing up as having the third highest edge for me this week just below Tennessee at +9 and Cleveland at +7. Unfortunately I have not been able to enter any of these picks yet on PM because of 5 Dimes shifted lines. Hopefully I wont see these move against me before Sunday.

Edited 9/11/13 at 6:27PM by Parker - No reason listed.

3

I hate this kind of line. But if you force me to make a decision, I have to evaluate a few things. Undecided yet if I will make a pick on this game as part of my weekly selections for PM, but a few thoughts to throw out there:

Geno Smith split stats in college are quite bad on the away side in terms of % of completions, YPA, although he didn't throw an interception (final year split stats).

Ridley vs. Jets 21/97/1 Nov 22 19/65/0 Oct 21 Pats mentally think they lost last week. They are well known for stomping shite opponents at home after a loss.

Leaning on the under too, as I see the outcome of the game in the 24-10 or 31-7 realm.

I'm hoping the media keeps talking injuries all day and hopefully I think less about the double digit spread.

Edited 9/11/13 at 10:45PM by myles-to-go - forgot to mention it was is final year split stats i was referring to.

4

I agree with your thoughts on the under Myles but I am not much of a totals player unless the stars, moon, and sun align for me. I definitely lean under though.

I have the Jets getting a few more points, somewhere in the 24-13ish range.

Pats/Belichick do seem to out to prove a lot after a loss and/or near loss. The Jet's defense is about all the team has going for it right now and I think they have just enough to keep it close.

2
Thank you Parker. I must say I was leaning towards a narrow Patriots win with Jets defence able to keep them in the game even starting with a Rookie QB, wasn't too sure on putting my money where my mouth was though until I read Parkers thoughts mirroring my gut feeling.

September started off the way August ended for us, which was despite turning a healthy profit in August we hit a slight slump which carried into September. We have started to turn things around the last few days and I must say it is in no small part to the Pick Monitor forum! Just the other day I took time out to read a few forum topics both old and new from some well respected members including yourself Parker and it really did make me realise my thought process, without realising, had altered during my slump. Nothing major but just reading a few articles I thought I normally do these things but noticed of late I wasn't sticking to the basic fundamentals which had served me so well.

So just a small bit to say I think a lot of people can get annoyed with pointless bickering and some pointless un-informative posts on the forum but overall I think as far as sports betting forums go we here at Pick Monitor are extremely blessed with some well educated members and posts that serve to make this one of the best, most informative sports betting forums around and I would advise any new members or even old profitable members who may be in a bit of a slump to take time out and read some of the articles from other members.
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