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New England Patriots 16 vs Denver Broncos 26

New England Patriots At Denver Broncos - AFC Conference Championship - NFL Football - 1/19/14 3:00PM
Sunday, 1/19
301 New England Patriots
+4.5 -101
+200
Ov 56.5 -105
302 Denver Broncos
-4.5 -109
-220
Un 56.5 -105

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New England Patriots Vs Denver Broncos 1-19-2014 0 views

UUUGGGHHH... I've been debating what to do with this game all week. The spread has been bouncing around a lot. Im a Broncos fan and REALLY want to bet on them, but my first reaction when the line came out at -7 was WHOA that's too much. I actually felt New England was the better value. Now the line has come down somewhat, but I still feel theres too much risk. This game should be a pickem, IMO. So because of my initial reaction, my loyalty to a team involved, the public play being New England, Broncos playing a revenge match at home, and the way the line has moved, I see this game easily going either way. Its a toss-up in my book and there's little value in it unless your money is on the Pats. Everyone is focused on comparing Brady and Manning in this game, but they are forgetting there's a defensive side of the ball, too. Vegas knows Joe Public is betting on a high-scoring game with two studs behind center and the O/U shows that. The line opened at 54.5, which is a bit high, and has been pushed up even further by the public where it is now at 56. This is where the value lies in this game. The weather in Denver on gameday is supposed to be gorgeous, so its not going to be a hindrance to either side moving the ball. However, Denver should be going into this game with a defensive mindset. They blew it last year (Jacoby Jones anyone?) on defense, despite who stands behind Center. Everyone wants to see bells and whistles in this game, but I believe it will be a lot more hard-fought than what the pundits are saying. After thinking about this game from every possible angle, I see the totals being the weakspot in this match-up. I'm going with the Under on this one. I think its truly the sharpest play you can make. Opinions?
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