Miami is my Top Play for the week. We got them at +5 earlier in the week. Here were some thoughts on the selection that subscribers were emailed back on Thursday:
"Since 1996, week one road teams that finished last season with 12 or more wins are just 14-24-1 (36.8%) ATS. Check out how they did on the moneyline....not good! In addition, Since 2005, Tom Brady is 0-12-0 ATS vs. the AFC in a rematch where he had previously completed less than 70%, but racked up OVER 280 yards line -4 or less.
Why is it week one and Dolphins are +5 point home underdogs? The weather is forcasted to spike up to the 90's with high humidity for this game. The Patriots have struggled in this kind of situation and usually if they did pull the win, they didn't cover the points.
Over 80% of the public bets are on the spread in this on for New England on the road in week one. No real indication of smart money yet on the Dolphins, but I think they'll be waiting to strike on this one as it may gain a whole extra point at the rate the public is doubting the Dolphins and over valuing New England. Add to that, Miami's secondary is looking top notch with Cameron Wake and Oliver Vernon who amassed 20 sacks last season.
*Since 1998, the Dolphins are 9-6-1 (60%) ATS at home to the Patriots. Not bad. The Patriots always seem to beat Miami, but Miami went 5-2 (71.4%) ATS last season as underdogs showing some signs of life as a team.
Hard bet to stomach, but this line is way off at +5. Go Dolphins."
Back on Thursday, I said that there wasn't indication of sharp money, but we can clearly see that the sharps are betting Miami now with the line at +3.5 from +5 and all of the public bets on the Patriots. Not sure I'd take +3.5, but I thought I'd share the pick.