"Washington is a team with no QB. Besides stating trends, no one has any legit reasoning that backs the decision to go with Washington. It is a division game. It was a division game when Dallas played New York too. Do you want to talk yourself into betting a bad team, or one of the leagues best? Is this years Cowboys team the same as last years Cowboys team? (no) Then why would you look to the past for todays answer?"
It's like most everything else, to a degree. Why do banks/lending institutions want to know your credit history? Why do insurance companies want to know your driving history? Why do many employers want to know your criminal history?
Because, the past when put in to the correct parameters can dictate future results ... to a certain degree.
I only use historical trends, historical statistics and situational handicapping for the NFL and I'm 23-10-2 in this contest for the season.
I could not tell you the first thing about how many yards rushing, receiving or how many receptions a receiver averages ... don't care either. To me, it is more important to look at "situations". Regardless of who was or was not on the Dallas Cowboys team last year or the year before, the team as a whole has always had the same rivalries. So, they will "get up" for some teams more so than others. Revenge is a big factor too. If a team was embarrassed earlier in the year and lost a game that they were supposed to win, the next time they play that team, they will, more than likely, play with more urgency/desire then if they had won that previous game. There is such a thing as "Let Downs" too. If a team wins 3-4 games straight and they are tough fought games, then they have a game against an 0-6 Oakland team and they are favored by 10, this might be a good spot for a "Let Down" as the team is not playing with the grit they were playing with the weeks before. Travel is a part of this dynamic as well. If a team has 4 road games in a row and they are playing a team that is playing this game at home for the 3rd week straight, that is a factor to consider too. There are various other factors to consider as well, but I'm sure you get the point now that regardless of the individual named players or coaches employed by the Dallas Cowboys this year, situations matter and should always be considered when handicapping.
While I'm here, I will list some trends, stats and situational aspects for Washington/against Dallas and why I bet Washington last night ...
- Washington is 14-4 (last 18 games) against the spread vs. Cowboys (obviously they get up for the Cowboys)
- Washington has the second best yardage differential in the NFL
- When Dallas is favored after winning their last game they are 3-14 against the spread the last 17 situations like this
- Dallas as home favorite is 7-20 against the spread the last 27 games they were favored playing at home
- When Dallas is favored on Monday Night Games, they are 1-10 against the spread
- The DOG in all Dallas games is 50-21 against the spread the last 4.5 years (blindly betting the dog is profitable in Dallas games)
- Last night's game was the 5th HOME game for Dallas out their last 6 games
- Dallas is not good when playing teams in their division ... they are 21-32 (last 53 games = 3.5 years) against the spread.
There are a few more, but again, I think you get my point ... the information above spans 5 +/- years, which covers many different players and different coaching staffs for both teams, probably to the tune of 60-70% turnover or more, yet, the trends, stats and situations hold a high percentage of consistency and value. With all of the above said, obviously, when one notices that a trend, stat or situation is changing over time, you make adjustments and weigh that parameter accordingly.