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Atlanta Falcons 37 vs Green Bay Packers 43

Atlanta Falcons At Green Bay Packers - NFL Football - 12/8/14 8:30PM
Monday, 12/8
179 Atlanta Falcons
+13.5 -105
+660
Ov 54.5 -105
180 Green Bay Packers
-13.5 -105
-840
Un 54.5 -105

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Atlanta Falcons Vs Green Bay Packers 12-8-2014 0 views

Atlanta Falcons won three of their last four games. The Green Bay Packers won four straight.

Atlanta Falcons have 46 passing plays of 20 yards or more. The Packers have 45.

Defensively, Atlanta Falcons are allowing an average of 25 points per game. Green Bay Packers 22 per game.

Falcons forced 24 turnovers vs 23 by the Packers. Green Bay sacked the quarterback 28 times this season. Atlanta has 14 sacks.

I picked the Atlanta Falcons +13

1

Light snow conditions and weather will not make a lot of passing plays ideal. Lacy has been a significant part in the last two games with Green Bay scoring team totals of 24 and 26 respectively. Green Bay will continue to pound the run game and although Rogers will take advantage of a weak falcon secondary, I believe the falcons will play a lot of deep coverages that will allow long Packer drives of shorter pass completions to his receivers. The return of Strong Safety William Moore will also help the falcon defense like he did when they played Arizona.

Green bay defense has also been great and should create enough pressure to make this a difficult night for Matt Ryan. I like the under 54.5. But just barley: Green Bay 30 Falcons 20.

Edited 12/8/14 at 5:34PM by Rio Jamz - No reason listed.

2
I don't normally use weather to make picks in NFL, but there's a pretty clear contrarian cold weather angle that applies tonight. Basically, games played at 35 deg. F or under tend to go over the total. Filters for light wind, Mon night, and even at Lambeau each show an even larger edge. I'm on the over.

Edited 12/8/14 at 6:59PM by evo34 - typo

3

ESPN Stats:

With a win tonight, Aaron Rodgers would improve to 68-32 as starter ... same record Brett Favre had in his first 100 career starts

If Aaron Rodgers throws for 293 yards tonight, he'll have more passing yards than any player in NFL history in their first 100 career starts

The are unbeaten and averaging 40.8 PPG at Lambeau this season. Trying to become 4th team in NFL history to average 40 PPG at home

Rodgers Loves Lambeau

Aaron Rodgers has an NFL-record total 20 consecutive touchdown passes without an interception at home this season.

Most Pass TD Without INT at Home Single Season in NFL History

Quarterback Streak Year
Aaron Rodgers 20* 2014
Steve Young 10 1987
Aaron Rodgers 8 2013
Dave Krieg 8 1994
*2 home games left

2
What does beating the shitty Falcons as a home favorite and hitting the road do for you this season? Well the Giants and Ravens both did this (Packers doing it now) and wen't 0-2 ATS 0-2 SU in the next week. I'm looking ahead to Bills +5.5 home dogs next week.
1
Evo - You posted that games played in Temps below 35 tend to go over. Is this a gut feel, or are there stats to back this up? This is something I'd like to add to my info as we move toward colder weather.
3

Stats. I don't have the raw 35 or lower ATS record on hand. But they are significant. Or else I wouldn't mention them.

3
Thanks evo34, I would never have gone the over, very happy I followed you on this selection. It wasn't even close, nice to watch a game knowing you won early on.
2
I'm not ashamed to say I was dead wrong on the under and it won't be the last time I'll be wrong. However, I did end up adding a couple of units overall as I had the Packers -7.5 at the half, Falcons +13.5 and the Packers over 17.5 at half because they simply kill it at the start of games. I'm glad to see the additional posts with their advice like evo34 and Tucker for starting it up. I'm going to try to more active in the write-ups in football so hopefully we'll see more of this.
2

I don't sell picks so I wasn't going to mention anything about not getting credited for this game. NFL is by far my toughest sport and I can't figure out for the life of me why I was given a zero for this game.

I made all my NFL picks early so it can't be because I Picked after the game started. It does say all games voided on the top of my page but not on the top of this page. Just curious.

1

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