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Baltimore Ravens 31 vs New England Patriots 35

Baltimore Ravens At New England Patriots - AFC Divisional Playoffs - NFL Football - 1/10/15 4:35PM
Saturday, 1/10
111 Baltimore Ravens
+7 -115
+260
Ov 47.5 -102
112 New England Patriots
-7 +105
-290
Un 47.5 -108

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Baltimore Ravens Vs New England Patriots 1-10-2015 0 views

This game opened early at -7.5 and jumped immediately to -8.5 before sharps bet it down to -7. It is rare that New England at home in the playoffs are not being over bet by the public but right now the books are taking just a little over 50% on the Pats from what I see. The main reason may be that Baltimore is 3-0 in Foxboro ATS in the playoffs against Brady and 2-1 SU. The 2 wins were fairly decent 33-14 in 2010 and 28-13 in 2013. The one loss in 2012 was 23-20 when Baltimore had a drop in the end zone late followed by a missed FG. Sometimes a team just matches up well with another team. Example: the Jets have not lost by more than 3 in New England in the last 3 seasons. This year Baltimore has been almost a 3 point favorite on average. They have a 10 point edge over that number. Baltimore on the road has a scoring margin of +3. Of course New England has been pretty good at home with a +16.25 scoring margin. Tom Brady since his last Super Bowl win is 6-11 ATS in the playoffs which is the worst record in that span. Those 6 wins came against Luck, Leftwich, Schaub, Pennington, Tebow and Rivers. Outside of a young Luck and Rivers that is not exactly elite NFL QB's. Flacco is 10-4 ATS in the playoffs. 1-1 Against Peyton and 1-2 against Big Ben. Nobody else has been able to beat him outside of TJ Yates (eeesh). No matter what Flacco does he does not get any credit and especially not against Brady. I see Baltimore as a 4 point dog in this one. I will take the extra 3 points we are getting here.

Edited 1/8/15 at 8:01PM by Parker - No reason listed.

4

You make me want to mortgage my house and bet it all on the Ravens.

Excellent write-up and the stats are very compelling.

2

This is easily the highest line the Ravens have played too all season. They have not been more than three-point dogs all season and have played to an average line of +3.2 points. Playoff teams are 53-39-2 ATS when the line in the game is at least 6.8 points higher than their average line this season.

Baltimore does two things really well that are vital to postseason success. Baltimore's red zone defense comes up big. They have allowed TDs on just 42.1% of possessions in the red zone. Playoff teams which have held their opponent to TD no more than 44.1% of trips to the red zone are 48-24-2 ATS.

They also get after the quarterback, with 3.24 sacks per game, good for second in the league. Teams in the playoffs which are averaging at least 2.88 sacks per game are 41-21-1 ATS .

I made a mistake and picked New England on this site. Im all in on RAVENS.

4
I'm sorry Ravens are outgunned and overrated in this matchup.

5 units on the pats -7. Most likely my largest wager of this yeas NFL season.
4
I have to go with eloozhun on this one. When someone says they're all in on something, you have no choice but to fade, you will win more often than not. I'll jump on the Patriots as well for 5 fantasy Pick Monitor units :)
3
The line makers are begging people to takeover Ravens, Parker you make very compelling points but I always ask myself WHY is the line inflated? My answer in this case, to take Sharp money bet on Ravens.
Pats -7 to the bank.

Slim~
3
I'm agreement with probably the best and most elusive capper on the site. Eloozhun 27-7 80% lifetime on 5 unit wagers.
2

Belichick is 3-7 ATS at home off of a bye week in the playoffs. 7-3 SU though. Small flukey sample maybe? Or is this spread a bit inflated?

I agree with you though a bit eloozun. It isn't really ever good to bet against the Patriots at home under Brady and Belichick. Part of betting in the NFL is betting for who you think is going to win straight up and forget the spread. Patriots are 108-23-0 SU (82.4%) since 2001 at home. Kept it small, but for me the bigger angle is how the Pats lost to the Bills in their final week. Everytime the Pats have gone far in the playoffs, they did a blowout in week 17.

Was listening to Bill Burr's podcast last Monday and he said a funny thing (as usual)...something along the line of: the Pats did that stupid video game thing where you put down the controller and say, 'ehh I wasn't even trying.' Bill Burr has a surprisingly good sense for Football in my opinion by the way.

We'll see guys. In retrospect, I'm wishing I passed on this game. I generally hate betting games that are so marquee. Go Ravens.

2
That's the bad thing about taking favorites; already having to overcome a 14 point deficit. It's early though.
3
Yeah it's being called fairly. We got a game here. Kicking Brady in the head while he was down seems to have woken him up.
3
Brady will get the baby treatment for the rest of the game...good game for sure though...nice to just be watching with no money invested
3

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