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Indianapolis Colts 7 vs New England Patriots 45

Indianapolis Colts At New England Patriots - AFC Championship Game - NFL Football - 1/18/15 6:50PM
Sunday, 1/18
303 Indianapolis Colts
+7 +102
+280
Ov 52.5 -105
304 New England Patriots
-7 -112
-310
Un 52.5 -105

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Indianapolis Colts Vs New England Patriots 1-18-2015 667 views

For whatever reason I’ve had fairly good success in the playoffs each year and this year seems to be holding true to that. I even wrote some of my opinions on here last week and avoided the dreaded write up curse so I’ll give it another shot.

Indy comes in to Foxboro off their biggest win in the Luck era. The Colts handled the Broncos fairly easily last week. As I wrote last week the health of Peyton Manning would be the story and that panned out. Manning was playing injured towards the end of the season and his numbers showed it. Based on that, the perception of the Colts is still below where I think this team is.

On the other side Tom Brady is being praised as the Tom Brady of old. Just 3 months ago Belichick received the question “Should the QB position be evaluated?” The question was funny at the time but the sentiment around it led to a +3 New England line at home to Cincinnati that week. What would that line be this week? Tom Brady was very good last week going 33-50 for 367 and 3 TD's. But the Patriot defense allowed 31 points and looked easy to throw on….something I totally expected. The Patriots rank 22nd in my defensive passing rankings. They are also 15th in defensive yards per pass. The Patriots did have the largest scoring margin in the league this season at 9.7. That is actually a low number to lead the league as last season Seattle was 11.6 and finished second to the Broncos at 12.9. That is one indicator that the top teams are not as dominant this season as they were last year.

Recent trends show taking the team that played in the wild card game over the team who had the first round bye has been profitable. Since 1997 17 teams have played in the wild card game and faced one of the top two seeds in the Championship games. Of those 9 have won outright. 11 of 17 have won ATS.

Tom Brady is the best QB in the league ATS during the regular season but in the playoffs the lines are certainly inflated in New England games. Brady is 0-5 in the playoffs when favored by 6-7 points. Oddly he is 5-0 SU in those contests.

Teams that had 400 total yards of offense the previous week are 9-21 in the Championship game.

Based on what I am looking at the game should be about New England -4. We are getting good value and a key number at +7 which is still available at a couple square books.

5

I still think there is value at +6. As I said when I ran my numbers I come up with +4 and would play anything above that. Now the million dollar question is what will the line do before the game? I will be the first to admit that my BCL and line reading has really suffered the last couple years. I used to be completely in tune with what the lines would do. Because of life, family, etc. I cant monitor the lines and news like I used to.

I was able to get +7 earlier in the week but have been reluctant to lock in the play on here waiting for the key number to return. Last week saw the typical public bias for the Peyton/Broncos that chased the line very high before game time. I'm not sure if we will see that again this Sunday with the Brady/Patriots but my uneducated guess right now is it will not fall under +6. I not sure if there is enough public favoritism to push this back to +7 but I am willing to wait it out until Sunday to find out.

I can really concentrate on this game as I don't have a play on the other one. I think the line is correct in the SEA/GB matchup, perhaps a slight lean on the Pack if you can get +7.5 but not enough for me to make a play.

1
In vegas you can still get 7 at three books, none of those are in Reno though. I'm seeing 6.5 everywhere here.
2
This morning I saw Bovada and Sportsbook.ag hanging 7 still.
2

Tough one here:

last 14 playoff games: 3-11 Against The Spread

Three games between and during Luck era. New England won all three by over 20 points.

1

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