Time to start thinking football and the first game of the season.
Took Pittsburgh +7 (now at +7.5) and the UNDER in this one (now up to 52, took it at 51.5). Apparently the Patriots laying points and the game over are popular selections. A couple of my reasons are below.
In last 7 meetings between these 2 QB's, have scored a combined avg. of about 5 TDs per game (effectively 35 points), leaving 17 points, the equivalent of 6 field goals needed to just cover the over.
A thunderstorm will be in the area Thursday during the day (http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/boston-ma/02108/daily-weather-forecast/348735?day=4), including game time, which could affect the passing game and also field conditions. Expecting there to be more running plays than their normally would be (possibly fewer max range field goal attempts as well). Possibly more turnovers as a result. In Massachusetts, the Patriots are currently experiencing a heat wave (and humid) leading into Thursday's thunderstorm. This could impact practice (lighter practices, more breaks, dehydration, etc). As game time gets closer, I would anticipate that this total number of 52 will drop.
Lots going on with Pats lately. Media. Brady. Reggie Wayne asked to be released, apparently claiming time with club was "tough" and "not fun." http://www.centriotimes.com/2015/09/new-england-patriots-rumors-wr-reggie-wayne-asked-for-pats-release-because-they-are-tough-and-not-fun.html I like that it is not easy, however that should be expected at this caliber of play and for a player to leave a spot on a team (especially the Patriots, a Superbowl winning team) indicating this is the reason leaves me to believe there are other issues.
This will also be the first game with PAT moved further back. Not sure if or how many 2 pt attempts will be made, or how many PATs may be missed.
While this is a big game and the Patriots may feel as though they have something to prove and want to make a statement, I don't think everything will be as smooth this Thursday for the Patriots and so I'm taking the points and the under in this one. While the Patriots may win, I do not expect it to be by more than 7.
Edited 9/7/15 at 7:30PM by JaneG - No reason listed.