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Pittsburgh Steelers 21 vs New England Patriots 28

Pittsburgh Steelers At New England Patriots - Week 1 - NFL Football - 9/10/15 8:30PM
Thursday, 9/10
461 Pittsburgh Steelers
+7 +105
+315
Ov 51.5 +100
462 New England Patriots
-7 -125
-345
Un 51.5 -120

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PlatinumCapper PlatinumCapper
UNDER 51 -102
9/10/15 8:27pm Risked 4.08 units to win 4
WL%ROIPick Type
401251.4Football
20465.59Football over/under
9256.55NFL Football
3146.23NFL Football over/under

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TheCaptain TheCaptain
Pittsburgh Steelers +7 +100
9/10/15 2:47pm Risked 5 units to win 5
WL%ROIPick Type
685213.58Football
2625-2.39Football point spread
332811.38NFL Football
1313-1.25NFL Football point spread

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PlatinumCapper PlatinumCapper
New England Patriots -7 -117
9/10/15 8:27pm Risked 3.51 units to win 3
WL%ROIPick Type
401251.4Football
19741.31Football point spread
9256.55NFL Football
6161.41NFL Football point spread

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TheCaptain TheCaptain
Free Pick: UNDER 52 -110
9/7/15 8:32pm Risked 5.5 units to win 5
WL%ROIPick Type
675014.74Football
111010.86Football over/under
332811.38NFL Football
3312.65NFL Football over/under

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Computer+Generated+Picks Computer Gen...
New England Patriots -7 +100
9/6/15 9:03am Risked 1 unit to win 1
WL%ROIPick Type
1037814.31NFL Football
836411.01NFL Football point spread

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kaynewestmaster kaynewestmaster
Pittsburgh Steelers Team Total OVER 22 -110
9/10/15 10:23am Risked 2.2 units to win 2
WL%ROIPick Type
1771575.24Football
1315-13.71Football team total
926413.23NFL Football
54-7.17NFL Football team total

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positiveEV positiveEV
UNDER 51 -105
9/10/15 4:07pm Risked 5.25 units to win 5
WL%ROIPick Type
402114.63Football
4228.25Football over/under
22830.03NFL Football
2093.02NFL Football over/under

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jaygerbs jaygerbs
New England Patriots -7 -110
9/10/15 11:30am Risked 5.5 units to win 5
WL%ROIPick Type
1911634.2Football
113974.56Football point spread
1077911.36NFL Football
644810.88NFL Football point spread

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Pittsburgh Steelers Vs New England Patriots 9-10-2015 0 views

Time to start thinking football and the first game of the season.

Took Pittsburgh +7 (now at +7.5) and the UNDER in this one (now up to 52, took it at 51.5). Apparently the Patriots laying points and the game over are popular selections. A couple of my reasons are below.

In last 7 meetings between these 2 QB's, have scored a combined avg. of about 5 TDs per game (effectively 35 points), leaving 17 points, the equivalent of 6 field goals needed to just cover the over.

A thunderstorm will be in the area Thursday during the day (http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/boston-ma/02108/daily-weather-forecast/348735?day=4), including game time, which could affect the passing game and also field conditions. Expecting there to be more running plays than their normally would be (possibly fewer max range field goal attempts as well). Possibly more turnovers as a result. In Massachusetts, the Patriots are currently experiencing a heat wave (and humid) leading into Thursday's thunderstorm. This could impact practice (lighter practices, more breaks, dehydration, etc). As game time gets closer, I would anticipate that this total number of 52 will drop.

Lots going on with Pats lately. Media. Brady. Reggie Wayne asked to be released, apparently claiming time with club was "tough" and "not fun." http://www.centriotimes.com/2015/09/new-england-patriots-rumors-wr-reggie-wayne-asked-for-pats-release-because-they-are-tough-and-not-fun.html I like that it is not easy, however that should be expected at this caliber of play and for a player to leave a spot on a team (especially the Patriots, a Superbowl winning team) indicating this is the reason leaves me to believe there are other issues.

This will also be the first game with PAT moved further back. Not sure if or how many 2 pt attempts will be made, or how many PATs may be missed.

While this is a big game and the Patriots may feel as though they have something to prove and want to make a statement, I don't think everything will be as smooth this Thursday for the Patriots and so I'm taking the points and the under in this one. While the Patriots may win, I do not expect it to be by more than 7.

Edited 9/7/15 at 7:30PM by JaneG - No reason listed.

5
Nice writeup JaneG, thank you for the analysis. I too am leaning towards the UNDER in this game considering the pre-seasons that both teams have had offensively. Even with Brady returning and the real season beginning, I don't think that both offenses can just flip a switch and score at will in this game. The additional info concerning the weather that you alluded too in your post only adds to my belief that the game will go under the total. I'm still up in the air concerning the spread bet, but you make excellent points in taking the dog.
4

@TheCaptain - Thank you. I personally believe the UNDER 52 is the better of the 2 selections, although I think there is some value in taking the points in this one, especially since it is now over a TD at +7.5

3
The UNDER appears to easy, 52 is a rather large total. . Even if the weather conditions are not favorable. If I recall correctly, evo34 had provided the forum with some statistics information that shows inclement weather does not necessarily affect scoring output in football. It may however increase on field errors, that could hinder or accentuate scoring depending on whether their are turnovers, and the location these turnovers occur. Snow and rain are not really a factor unless there are prevailing winds accompanying the former types of conditions.

That being said, I don't have a play on this game, just wanted to see if there are similar or dissimilar opinions as it pertains to the importance of weather in relation to game results.

Good luck to you both with this game, and have a great evening everyone!

Edited 9/7/15 at 8:23PM by Timothy Wynn - additional information

3

My findings were basically that cold temps. in the absence of high winds tended to produce overs in NFL -- the assumption being that the public thinks cold weather affects offense when that may not actually be the case.

In a different study, I found that night games with low to moderate winds have tended to go over as well. This game would be a qualifer for that Over system if the wind stays under 12 mph, which appears likely per weather.com (which I trust more than accuweather) -- although obviously it's very tough to project wind speeds 3 days in advance.
5

If this is the case, I am not sure why the total has actually risen. Maybe it will lower in the coming days. By any chance does anyone know about how many points that the line moves when the public believes weather is an issue?

I can see a good possibility that one team is up by a high enough point differential by the 4th that they play conservatively and run the ball to run out the clock. This would also be good for the under.

Edited 9/8/15 at 12:02AM by JaneG - No reason listed.

2

Regarding your second point, that's definitely a huge deal for totals. It's factored in generically for sure, but on a team-specific level, I don't think it is. I.e., it's usually worthwhile to study how individual coaches call offensive plays when up/down by a large margin. E.g., some will run a lot when leading, while others will keep the mix relatively similar until the very end of game.

3

Have you come across any info regarding how precipitation may impact games? More turnovers? More incomplete passes? More shorter pass attempts? More running plays? More likely to punt versus try a long field goal? Less yardage by runners who fall? Etc.

Edited 9/8/15 at 12:12AM by JaneG - No reason listed.

1
I've never seen anything with regard to rain/snow. I don't think it's recorded reliably in most databases. My gut feeling, FWIW, is that NFL offenses can deal with wet conditions pretty well (or at least relative to the defense's issues with the same conditions).
1

Do you believe that even though offenses may be better able to deal with precipitation than defenses (they do know what the play is ahead of time :), the total score would not be impacted, or that it would be lower?

Edited 9/8/15 at 12:28AM by JaneG - No reason listed.

2

That's an interesting question. Assuming light to medium precip. (not 10 inches of snow), I'd guess it would lower scoring by about 1-1.5 pts. (vs. same temp./wind and zero precip.), due primarily to play calling. Total guess, though. I have no data on that.

Here's a little wind data:

http://www.pinnaclesports.com/en/betting-articles/football/impact-of-the-weather-on-nfl-betting

And some more:

http://community.advancednflstats.com/2014/01/how-does-weather-affect-qbs-qbr_7.html

Edited 9/8/15 at 12:42AM by evo34 - No reason listed.

2

I wouldn't think light precipitation would have much impact. I was thinking more along the lines of moderate to heavy rains (or blizzard effect equivalent), which is what is predicted for Thursday night's game at this point.

Thanks for the included weather links.

2
I will parlay the play Under + points just hoping all this scandal with the patriots will be heavy load on them.
2

Not sure if this info is helpful to anyone, however just tried pulling up a few quick numbers on first game of the following season for SB champs for last few years. Not a large sample size. In past 4 seasons, looks like Superbowl champs have been favored to win 3 of season openers (Balt was UD to Denver). Superbowl winners have gone 2-2, and Favs have gone 3-1. The O/U has gone over 3-1. Sorry, did not make a table, however

2013-14 Seattle played GB, -4.5, Won, O/U 47, covered over at 52. Fav won, SB winner won. Score differential of 20 pts.

2012-13 Baltimore played Denver, +7, lost, O/U 48, covered over at 76. Fav (Denver) won, SB winner (Balt) lost. Score differential of 22 pts.

2011-12 NYG played Dal, -3.5, lost, O/U 45.5, covered under at 41. Fav lost, SB winner lost. Score differential of 7 pts.

2010-11 GB played NOR, -5, won, O/U 47.5, covered over at 76. Fav won, SB winner won. Score differential of 8 points.

Some data did not show for previous years (like spread), but appears that 09-10, 08-09, and 07-08 all had the SB team winning (unknown spread), with the under covering in all three (23 total pts for each of the 3 games). Score differential in 09-10 was 3 pts, in 08-09 it was 5 pts, and in 07-08 it was 9 pts.

The over for the game this Thursday is 52 which is higher than previous years. It is possible it may still not be enough as the first game involving the SB winner in the last 4 years would have gone 2-1-1 against this number. Other factors may need to influence the outcome (i.e. media, personnel, weather, good defense, etc) for the under to win.

Looks like SB winner has gone 5-2 in winning the 1st game of the following season outright in last 7 years (one of those losses was Baltimore and they were 7.5 point underdogs in the game). The 2 losses were in last 3 years (1 was an underdog). It appears that when the SB team has covered the spread, the score was close and they covered by less than 1 score with the exception of last year when Seattle covered by 15.5 pts.

5 of last 7 games had a final score differential of 9 points or less (9, 8, 7, 5, 3 pts), although the last 2 years have seen large differentials (20, 22 pts) with totals of 52 and 76 pts.

Good luck on your game selection!

Edited 9/8/15 at 2:25AM by JaneG - No reason listed.

4

Looking at the other side of this coin (Seattle), this is from Dr. Bob before the 2012 season (I have not looked at it since then):

Speaking of the Super Bowl, their loss to the Giants in the big game could have a lasting affect today, as teams that lost in the Super Bowl the previous season are 0-12 ATS in week 1 the previous 12 years and 1-13 ATS when opening on the road going back to 1985. Also, teams that won 15 or more games the previous season (including the playoffs) are 0-13 ATS in their opener when the over/under is 40 points or higher.

3

11-12 SB loser NE Patriots covered the spread (-5) by 16 in the 1st game of the 2012 season.

12-13 SB loser SF 49ers covered the spread (-5) by 1 in the 1st game of the 2013 season.

13-14 SB loser Denver did not cover the spread (-8) by 1 in the 1st game of the 2014 season.

14-15 SB loser Seattle (yet to be determined)

This would mean that currently, in the previous 15 seasons, the losing teams in the SB are 2-13 ATS in week 1, and 2-1 in last 3 years (2 of those games decided ATS by 1 point).

1

A bit difficult to find this data unless you scrape it yourself but I did manage to find a site named sportsedge.biz which has a wealth of past pointspread data for all sports. The data provided by this site is free back to the 2001 NFL season.

Previous year Super Bowl winners are 10-3-1 ATS in week 1 of the following year

Previous year Super Bowl losers are 3-11 ATS in week 1 of the following year.

The combined total is 21-6-1 ATS betting on the SB winners and against the SB losers in week 1 of the following year since 2001.

However, I will mention that the last 3 years of combining both angles has only produced a record of 1-5 ATS. This means that prior to the last 3 years the angle was an unbelievable 20-1-1 ATS. Perhaps finally after all of these years Vegas has adjusted their opening week lines based on this trend.

3
@TheCaptain - Thanks for providing the website and info. Do you believe that the data at that site is accurate? This was the first thought I had when I went to their website (does their data have a high degree of accuracy?). Maybe it is just the first impression the website gives to me. Have you noticed any incorrect information or other potential issues?
1

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