Atlanta Falcons 21 vs New Orleans Saints 31Atlanta Falcons At New Orleans Saints - NFL Football - 10/15/15 8:25PM Thursday, 10/15
10/15/15 6:53pm Risked 1 unit to win 0.97
10/15/15 6:53pm Risked 5 units to win 4.76
10/15/15 3:15pm Risked 1 unit to win 1.65
10/15/15 5:59pm Risked 5 units to win 5.25
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Atlanta Falcons Vs New Orleans Saints 10-15-2015 0 views
Saints Record at Home from Week 8 2014 through Week 4 2015
Week 8 Sun, Oct 26 vs W Green Bay 44-23
Week 10 Sun, Nov 9 vs L San Francisco 27-24 OT
Week 11 Sun, Nov 16 vs L Cincinnati 27-10
Week 12 Mon, Nov 24 vs L Baltimore 34-27
Week 14 Sun, Dec 7 vs L Carolina 41-10
Week 16 Sun, Dec 21 vs L Atlanta 30-14
The Saints are 2-6 through their last 8 home games, or 1-6 through their last 7 home game. The last time they played Atlanta back in Dec 2014 at home they lost 30-14. Even with a banged up Julio Jones who will most likely be 75%, yet that's better than most WRs in the league, and probably most Leonard Hankerson who will be 70% at best with I'm guessing broke or severely bruised ribs, you have to go with Atlanta. Their defense while not spectacular has been very aggressive and is making plays.
Drew Brees looks like a shadow image of Peyton Manning this year. While Brees at least has a shoulder injury to blame, Peyton has something wrong with him. Either way, the Saints and Brees no longer have a home field advantage in the Super Dome. Atlanta plays in a dome, so no advantage for the Saints there either. The running game is lackluster once again and the defense with Rob Ryan who I fully expect to be fired at the end of the year are at the bottom of the league. This is a rivalry game, but the Saints haven't come to play this year and I don't think they will come tonight either. 'Who Dat', this year stands for, who is that on the field for the Saints this year! When your leading receiver is Willie Snead (undrafted free agent out of Ball State in 2014)...well then, "Houston we have a problem".
Take ATL and the points, also look to get buy off the hook.
Edited 10/15/15 at 12:47PM by wacked - No reason listed.
I like the falcons; saints are giving up 409 yards per game. Devonta Freeman will show why he is the next stud to a national audience. Saints simply don't have the weapons and top ranked Falcons run defense can make it difficult for Ingram. Even though it's a divisional game; Falcons 9-1 ATS on Thursdays including 6-0 vs. NFC South...Saints 1-6 on Thursdays. Isn't this the same Dan Quinn whose defense knocked the high powered saints in a playoff game with Seattle and did it again in the regular season? Look out!
Edited 10/15/15 at 1:02PM by Rio Jamz - No reason listed.
Everything points the falcons way... I know NO sucks but this has trap written all over it. Prolly going to take the Saints
i like falcons, NO has very bad luck, and @Reno Posted few weeks ago, D. Brees has an injury! thats is one of the reasons they suck! That is why im staying with the Falcons First Half. -1.5 im not sure about the over and unders i think that is the trap the 409 yards per game.... tricky stat... but good luck everyone chashing those bets!
ps. i also like the over of the second half of the MLB game. but we can not place those here..
can you elaborate on what you mean by trap? just "too good to be true" or something more tangible
Looks like RaymondG brought up the T-word! I think you got it AlgoBettor; the line is set to entice betting a particular popular team when a selected few know the outcome will more likely benefit the lesser bet them. Not sure if everyone agrees with that explanation but we've had a few topics pop up regarding trap games. Anyone can also use the search engine with the word trap to visit them.
I believe RaymondG pointed out that all statistics data leans in favor of Atlanta and he is right. If that's the case then why would New Orleans, a dreadful team, be only 3 point dogs versus a 5 - 0 team that is firing on all cylinders even if the Saints are at home. In this case, I believe the trap is one of two things. Either this line is low because the oddsmakers know something the public doesn't, or they are providing such an enticing line in an attempt to get equal action from those that are persuaded to think like the example provided above, and those that will not be persuaded.
Personally, I believe they know something the general public doesn't, and therefore the line is indicative of how close this game will be.
Admittedly, New Orleans is going to wind up winning by a somewhat sizeable margin. However, that outcome is due entirely to the 3-0 fumble count and a blocked punt to boot, all of which are universally recognized as being statistically unpredictable phenomena.
I'm not sure I'll ever get on board with the idea of a "trap" line. I think that more likely, as alluded to by Rio Jamz and TWin, it's meant purely to even the action. As to why the Saints are so well-liked by the public (if that is the case), that's another question altogether... Brees seems to have some caché, but the franchise as a whole isn't exactly beloved.
Edited 10/15/15 at 11:33PM by algoBettor - Grammar
Not saying this happens or is the way you should interpret it, but it is what I did. I wanted to take the Saints at home, because that's generally what you do in the buy low/sell high situation where in Week 6 we're presented. The only way I saw that was if they ran the ball a lot and I rationalized myself into the under. It pushed, so oh well.
However I did monitor the split of ATS bets and it was roughly 75/25 all week for the most part with money on the Falcons. Like one the posts above there's no way the Saints can do anything, blah blah blah (case in point, consider/refer to buy low, sell high comment).
Then few hours before game time it's a 60/40 type split and the line's now +3 Saints. I happy take the Saints +3 and even considered the ML at this point.
So, take this for whatever you want to take it for. Who trap? (dat?!); line reading, #vegasisneverwrong? whatever other notes, but sometimes when I'm not sure I'm ok with siding with the #allegedlysmart ;-)
I didn't watch the game but I was surprised with the outcome. However, no case of sour grapes. No one can predict turnovers for defensive touchdowns. Turnovers are obvious game changers and who would have thought the saints would win the turnover battle. I've called trap games before on this site, just didn't feel it was going to be even though everyone on media including my grandma said it was!
Like Algo said, 3 lost fumbles in the 1st half and a punt blocked for a TD pretty much sums up the Falcons night. Had they scored on 2 of those lost fumbles which were inside the Saints 20 yard line, which one was inside the 10, it would have been a different game. Turnovers come and go and you can see an increase one week and regression a week later. I still like the Falcons -3 and it was the right call. The Saints needed the win and the Falcons apparently wanted to give it away.
This is why luck is the predominant factor as it pertains to a handicapper / forecaster winning or losing a wager on any single sporting event.
It remains that a successful sports handicapper / forecaster can only be judged on their long term finite angles that allow them to be successful in the long term. Furthermore, the client needs to fully understand and subsequently exercise strong judgement with their personal control over patience, discipline, and money management, otherwise the successful service(s) they purchase from will not really assist them at all.
Losses are inevitable whether you learn from them or not.
How often has this type of situation prresented itself? And are the long term results stemming from this situation profitable?
It's all easy money after the fact. You have successfully insulted those players that were on Atlanta and publicly exclaimed a tout with zero substance.
Edited 10/16/15 at 12:11PM by Timothy Wynn - grammar
I am 8 - 5 and +3.77 real units this season in hockey and 100% transparent as displayed on my profile page and pick history.
Oh yeah, let me add I am also up $1,000,000 in the last two days lol
yeah I know what I sound like in the second part of this post, and you every right to be thinking that as well :)