Sunday 8/4/19 - Cincinnati +100 (Gray, xFIP 3.46) vs Atlanta (Teheran, xFIP 5.16). Teheran not only has an awful xFIP, but he walks 10.5% of hitters and has a ground ball rate of 40%. So lots of guys on base and lots of fly balls, which increases the chances for 2-run and 3-run homers. Gray strikesout 28% of hitters and gets 54% ground balls. So the ball isn't in play or it's on the ground, which is what I like in a pitcher. The public will bet the Braves here because they are in first place and the Reds are below .500, so consider taking the value price on the better pitcher.
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