A Pick To Consider - Page 2 2,061 views

There we go @Jwinner, I used your report to fix the issue hehe. You got 10$ in free stuff for that.

It works in mobile now.


OOPS! I tipped your BoSox Sale post instead of Phillies. Anyways, I was getting battered all day and needed a RageBet. I took your Phillies play. Thanks a million, Bo$$!!!

Edited 8/16/19 at 2:53PM by GamblingGods - No reason listed.


@GamblingGods, thanks and I'm glad you won. I wonder what bet comes after a losing RageBet. Good thing we didn't have to find out.

@Jwinner, thanks for the tokens, kind words, advertisement, and the review you wrote. I'll give you a nice discount on your next subscription as a way of saying thank you. I'm glad you're happy and winning.

@Michael, thanks for all the tokens. Not sure what I'm going to do with all of them.

Hope it's a winning day for everyone.


@Eppley, if you read the blog post I'm soon launching a new contest feature.

The end goal is to have contest where you can buy in with tokens and cashout win some prize!

Meanwhile you can reward others for their contributions or buy non-business member picks. It can always be helpful when you want to validate a pick that you're on the edge of making by unlocking a pick from another member that you respect / has good result on the same type of play.


The bet after RageBet would be Yusuf UFC, and then Cormier all in. Utilizing this logic, imma lo$e it all one day. Just not yesterday or tonight. lol!


Thanks Eppley keep up the good work brother.

Michael thanks for the tokens can I use them to pay business members?


Unfortunately, for the time being I need every $ that comes in to keep expanding Pick Monitor.


Sunday 8/18/19 - Cleveland (Clevinger, xFIP 2.77) vs NY Yankees (Sabathia, xFIP 4.98) Under 10 -105. Clevinger has been outstanding with an xFIP under 3.00, a K:BB better than 4:1, a 35% K rate and 43% GB rate. Amazingly he's done all this with a .336 BABIP. Sabathia isn't what he once was, but still nearly 3:1 K:BB and a 21% K rate. Then we have Phil Cuzzi working the plate, a great Under umpire. There are 4% fewer runs than average in his games. With two strikeout pitchers and a friendly umpire, consider taking the Under in this game.


Eppley- Great analysis as always. Using the advanced stats to analyze pitchers is definitely the way to go. I'm surprised there are still many ERA and Whip guys out there. You seem to really be hitting your stride since you started posting picks. Thank you and keep it going!


I was on the same side. My 5 minute MLB.comWikiCap showed Sabathia is a bum. Your analysis goes 10 levels deeper, tho. Props, Bo$$...


Thursday 8/22/19 - Detroit (Zimmerman, xFIP 5.17) vs Houston (Cole, xFIP 2.82) Under 8.5 -105. Cole is outstanding with an xFIP under 3.0, K:BB 6:1, and strikeout 37% of hitters. Zimmerman isn't great but does have a K:BB nearly 3:1 and walks only 6% of hitters. Houston is a ballpark that reduces batting averages of right handers by 10% and left handers by 12%. And Jeremie Rehak is working the plate, who is the best Under umpire in the league with 9% fewer runs than average in his games. Two pitchers who don't normally walk many hitters should be even better in a big ballpark with a very friendly umpire, so consider taking the Under in this game.


LemBanker awarded 18 tokens for this post.

Jwinner awarded 20 tokens for this post.

Unbelievable loss. Tigers 0 runs 2 hits in 8 innings and then Antros bring in a bum in the 9th and gets hammered


Thursday 9/12/19
NY Mets -135 (Stroman, xFIP 3.94) vs Arizona (Young, xFIP 4.42). Young's numbers appear to be average with a xFIP in the mid 4's and K:BB 3:1. But his BABIP .233 tells us he's due for regression which means he's actually well below average. Stroman's numbers are pretty good with a xFIP below 4 and K:BB nearly 3:1. But he's accomplished this with a BABIP .387. So he's also due for regression in a good way, which means he's even better than his current numbers suggest. Mets have a better bullpen, despite the public's perception their bullpen stinks, and they have a better offense and they're at home. With a 63% win probability, they Mets should be -171. At -135 they are priced at 57% so consider taking the discounted price on the Mets.


Jwinner awarded 50 tokens for this post.

Calql8bets awarded 200 tokens for this post.

Monday 9/16/19 - NY Mets -154 (Matz, xFIP 4.26) vs Colorado (Senzatela, xFIP 5.20). Senzatela is pure cannon fodder with a K 12% and BB 10%. A K:BB ratio less than 2:1 is bad, a 1:1 normally ends in a trip to AAA. He walks a ton of hitters in a ballpark that even good pitchers have a hard time keeping the ball in. Look for some 3-run homers by the Mets who should be highly motivated as their playoff chances are getting slimmer with every loss. Matz has a xFIP in the low 4's and a K:BB near 3:1. He'll likely give up some runs, it is in Colorado after all, but consider taking the Mets to win this slugfest.


Jwinner awarded 100 tokens for this post.

I did bet the over 13.5 in the Mets game, and I bet about 10 baseball games over all season. I've bet about 300 unders, which have been very profitable.

Senzatela gives up at least 7 runs every time he steps on the mound at Coors Field. And the Mets have won 12 of the last 15 on the road against right handers. Then consider Colorado has lost 20 of the last 27 against left handers. So I think the Mets are the best bet, but I think they probably score enough runs to put the game over.

Hope it's a winning day for you.


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