The Jazz have taken the Nuggets to the woodshed in consecutive games. The public can't wait to bet two fistfuls on the Jazz. It's been a long line as 74% of the bets are on the Jazz, pushing the line from -2.5 to -3.5.
Here's some reality. The 3 games in this series have been played at a turtle's pace of 90.4. Even Dodgers pitcher Pedro Baez (AKA Human Rain Delay) was overheard saying he wishes these guys would speed the game up. I mean we're talking SLOW. But the Jazz put up 124 points in the last 2 games at this pace. That puts their offensive rating over 130. For the analytically challenged, that rating over the course of a season would make the Jazz the best offense in the history of basketball. Now there's no need to dig out your list of top 10 offenses, you can take my word for it that the Jazz ain't on it.
The Jazz offense is certainly due for some regression - well actually a lot of regression. Mitchell has shot 13% better from both 2's and 3's. Overall the Jazz have shot nearly 9% better than expected as a team.
The Nuggets have been embarrassed. Look for them to play with a lot of energy, which will show on defense. A good defensive effort together with offensive regression for the Jazz, makes the Nuggets worth a bet here. The public driving the number up makes it even better.
Denver +3.5 vs Utah. I wouldn't bet less than +3.
Hope all your bets win today.