I see so much posted about how this stat is so important in determining a handicappers worth. However I see many on here with thousands of plays and a very high BCL (60-65 per centage) and an extremely low ROI. What gives here, if BCL is so important shouldn't it go up and down relative to ROI? Also when figuring BCL does how much a capper risks come into play...for example if someone has a high odds risked per play (let's say -150) do they have to beat the closing line by more than 60 per cent of the time as opposed to someone who plays strictly (-110).
Bcl Stat... 140 views
Point spread sports are different from money line sports when deciding how much weight to give the BCL stat.
With point spreads (football and basketball) the BCL is extremely important. The book you use for BCL is also extremely important. A BCL of 60% at Pinny or CRIS is very good, but 60% at 5dimes or Heritage is worthless. At square books a BCL of 70% is good. On PM stats are a mixture of 5dimes and Pinny which makes the BCL a little harder to analyze. My suggestion is 65% or higher can be considered good, 60% - 65% you have to dig a little deeper into when the majority of those picks were made.
The reason BCL is important is because you should be betting based on your own point spread. Anything else is just guessing. If the books line is different than your line, that's value assuming your line is correct. Sharp money moves lines so if the line moves in your direction, that indicates other sharps had the same line as you. The theory here is math models should mirror each other. If your model is quite different from other sharps, then your model is flawed. This is indentified in the BCL stat. High BCL means your model is good, low BCL means your model needs work.
Money line sports (baseball and hockey) the BCL stat isn't as important. It's on the list of stats you should consider, but its 3rd on the list instead of 1st. Having a half point more in a football game can turn a loss into a win, but having 5 cents more on a baseball game doesn't help if the team loses. The most important stat for money line sports is AOP compared to win percentage. What you're looking for is a guy with an AOP no higher than -110 and a winning percentage over 52.4%. Preferred is a guy with AOP +money and a winning percentage near 50%. The second stat you want is AOP OF WINS, but unfortunately this stat isn't on PM. You will find guys who have an AOP of +120, which is really good. But his AOP on wins in -120, which is bad. These AOP's should be within a close range of each other. Next on the list would be BCL.
People generally don't understand what long-term means. Some think 500 picks is a lot, others think 2000 picks is a lot. First these picks have to be uncorrelated, which means betting a team +4 and on the money line counts as one pick. Same with 1Q, 1H, whole game bets. These count as one pick, not three. Pro's don't bet like this.
So let's say we have 10,000 clueless people throwing darts at a wall to make picks. After 1000 picks, 90% of them will have losing records. But that means 1000 of them will have winning records, so they are all great handicappers right? Well if these records were entered on PM, we would have to look into some of the other stats of these guys to determine how good they are. The point here is a winning record with 1000 uncorrelated picks isn't enough yet. Same with BCL stat after 1000 picks.
Back to our dart throwers. Now they have made 2000 uncorrelated picks - 91% will lose. 5000 picks -94% will lose. 8000 picks - 97% will lose. 10,000 picks - 99% will lose. So at 5K picks, there's a 6% chance a winning record was based on luck (94% it was skill), and at 10K picks there's a 1% chance a winning record was based on luck (99% it was skill). So use these numbers when determining how valuable a statistic is, including the BCL.
Hope this helps.
Agree that the BCL numbers to not appear to correlate to ROI on this site. I know how ROI is calculated. Can anyone tell me how BCL is calculated here?
I think it's just important on moneylines maybe even more, as it's instant extra money, where as spreads it only changes your ROI on games where it landed close to the spread. If you got 110 instead of 100, that's an extra 10% roi instantly every game if you win, but also if you lose you lose less if you are staking your bets based on the ROI.
Another thing I'll add is that BCL is figured in a binary fashion, which is imperfect, but still a good indicator. What matters most is how much you beat the closing line by. If you beat it by 20 cents one game and then lose to it by one cent the next game, that will show that you your BCL is 50% but in reality your still beating it more than losing to it. The more you beat it by the higher your ROI will be, and it shows that your ROI is by skill not luck.