Dapper Dan Picks 2021 - Week 1 67 views

(will be adding some more Saturday morning)

YTD: (0-1) -1 units

2021 Week 1 -

Minnesota +14 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units

We have a nice little experience chart mismatch in week 1 so we take the big dog who has proven capable of keeping up with tough competition. Minnesota is one of the most experienced teams returning by Phill Steele’s charts as they rank 1st in experience and Big play D ranks, 2nd in offensive line starts, 10th in tackles % returning and 28th in % of yards returning including starting QB Tanner Morgan and dynamic RB Mohamad Ibrahim. Their offense last season was well rounded, ranking 19th in efficiency, 24th in explosiveness, and 12th at finishing drives. On the other side you have Ohio State who ranks 129th in experience, 100th in o-line starts, and 122nd in big play D. On offense they rank 121st with only 45% of their yards returning and on defense they rank 128th with only 48% of their total tackles returning. They lost Justin Fields who accounted for most of their yards as well as extending plays with his athleticism and giving their playmakers time to find open space. Their offensive line struggled (even with Justin Fields running around back there) ranking 103rd in sack% allowed last season. CJ Stroud, redshirt freshman, isn’t nearly as fast or mobile and was a pro-style QB in highschool with only one breakout big run in his highschool career. He will be in a tough environment and there’s a good chance he’s not ready for the big-stage. Minnesota is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games against Ohio State as these big name schools are usually overvalued against these smaller schools. Good to see the majority on Ohio State as well.

Michigan State +3 (+100) Risking 1 unit to win 1 unit

I think the wrong team is favored here and although I think MSU wins outright I prefer to take the points to be safe in these BIG 10 defensive matchups. MSU’s offense should see a spark this season with transfer of experienced Temple starting QB, Anthony Russo, last year QB play was their biggest downfall ranking 122nd in INT % at 5%. The lack of a passing game also made it tough for them to run, as they only gained 10 or more yards on 17 runs of its 239 rush attempts, ranking 125th in the country. They have a very deep receiving corps this year and two new RB transfers to add to their stable of backs - I'm sure one will emerge as a star behind this (hopefully improved) veteran offensive line that returns all 5 starters and ranks 4th in total offensive line starts. Mel Tucker and Scottie Hazelton brought a whole new defensive scheme ast year switching to a 4-2-5. Expect the defense to make less mistakes and blown coverages with 7 returning starters in their 2nd year. On the other side of the ball, the inexperienced of Northwestern should be noticeable as they rank 130th in phill steeles experience chart, 112 in career offensive line starts, and 126th in Big play D rank. Last year although their defense was one of the best in the nation, only 4 starters return and their longtime Defensive Coordinator of 12 years, Mike Hankwitz, retired going out with one of his best seasons under his belt. Their offense heavily relied on Peyton Ramsey who is now gone and other players will have to step up and make plays but may take some time. MSU won last year in this matchup 29-20 and I think the score will be similar this season.

Indiana +3.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units

Looking forward to this season for Indiana as they had a great 2020 and return mostly in-tact with 19 returning starters, and many of them even expected to be backups as their talent level has risen. Starting QB, Michael Penix Jr is entering his 4th year working with Tom Allen and OC Nick Sheridan, and it shows as he looked like matured a lot last season completing 56% of his throws with 14 TDs and only 4 INTs averaging 7.5 yards per attempt. Their offense although not very explosive (ranked 99th in explosiveness) was great at finishing drives and long slow methodical drives ranking 31st in finishing drives and 31st in Field Position. Their defense was equally well rounded and they led the nation in red zone stop % and ranked 11th at finishing drives and 33rd in Field Position. They were very opportunistic averaging 2.5 takeaways per game (ranking 4th in nation) and are a very disciplined team ranking 5th in penalties per play. They were tough against the run last year only allowing 4 yards per carry. Iowa will need to establish the run as Spencer Petras isn’t much of a QB, ranking 114th last year according to PFF with a 56.9 passing grade. Iowa is ranked 112th in Phil’s experience chart opposed to Indiana’s 40th so that's another advantage. Indiana is 0-3 in their last 3 ATS against Iowa and this is the year to break that trend. I bought to +4 with my book and you should too if you can get -120 or below.


Week 1 Additions:

Rutgers -15 (-102) Risking 1.02 units to win 1 units

These two programs seem to be going in opposite directions as Temple is losing quite a bit of experience to the transfer portal including 3 starting linemen (one transferred to Rutgers), leading rusher, and 3rd year starting QB, Anthony Russo. They rank 108th in Phill Steele’s exp chart with ranking 104th in % of yards on offense returning and 105th in % of tackles on defense returning. Their coaching staff is sub-par after losing Geoff Collins in 2018, Rod Carey and his OC, Mike Uremovich have come over from NIU and have very short resumes and limited to small schools unlike Schaino on the other side who helped lead the 2000 Miami Hurricanes as DC to an 11-1 year. Their experience charts also show a mis-match as they rank 19th overall and 30th in offensive yards returning and 32nd on defense. 19 of their starters from last year return although their offense struggled a bit last season, it was still a drastic improvement from 2019 and their defense had its strengths including creating havoc in the backfield ranking 11th averaging almost 8 TFLs per game, a weakness of this Temple offense last season that ranked 75th in TFL allowed. Starting QB Noah Vedral is back with his young fresh offensive coordinator, Sean Gleeson who’s willing to take risks and big shots down the field and open up the playbook. Something last year was very limited without the returning experience and regulations implemented last season. I think Rutgers takes this one down easily despite them being 3-6 last season against an exclusively BIG 10 schedule, much more difficult than an all AAC schedule where Temple won 1 game and lost 6.

Arkansas -19.5 (-102) Risking 1.02 units to win 1 units

Arkansas put together one hell of a coaching staff and I expect them to make big strides in their 2nd year despite struggling last season in an ALL SEC schedule. Barry Odom is a top tier defensive coordinator, interesting tidbit from 2012-2015 he improved every season in yards per play allowed, with two different teams. In ‘12-’14 he was at Memphis and ranked 39th 1st year, 35th, 2nd year and 14th in his 3rd year. Then he moved to DC at Missouri where he was ranked 3rd in ypp allowed in his first year but then he got promoted to Head Coach and the defense went to shit, HA!. Kendall Briles, outside of the last two years (you can't succeed if Taggart is your head coach and last year covid year) has led upper echelon offenses and from ‘15-’17 his offenses averaged a ranking of 17th in ypp. Their QB KJ Jefferson saw some action at the end of last year after crappy Felipe got hurt and I liked what I saw from KJ. He’s elusive and has that evasion quality thats hard to measure, size, and a pretty good arm. Rice on the other hand returns their same crappy coaching staff, New OC but Bloomgren runs a power run offense like he did at Stanford but that doesnt work at Rice when your offensive line is going to be pushed around by this SEC defensive line. In 2019 they were 3-9 and last year they were 2-3 and played extremely crappy competition, unlike Arkansas. Arkansas wins by 3 TD+.

Miami +19.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units

I am a biased Miami Hurricane fan so I will keep this short and sweet. Miami ranks 8th nationally in experience charts and 1st in total offensive line starts as 4 of the 5 starters return (and they all have a ton of experience). Alabama on the other hand ranks 124th in experience charts and lost 78% of their offensive yards last year ranking 129th in the league. Manny Diaz is back to calling defensive plays (for a few years he didnt when Miami defense was shitty but when he called their plays there were always top tier) Rhett Lashlee is entering his 2nd year as OC and I have him as a very highly rated OC with his stints at Auburn as a disciple of Malzahn afterwards at SMU went from 76th is first year to 31st in 2nd year. I will also be sprinkling some on the Miami ML too

UCLA +2.5 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units

Chip Kelly is returning for his 4th year with the same two coordinators and a very experienced team with 20 returning starters including starting QB, and mobile threat, DTR. All 5 of their starters on the offensive line return that were ranked 39th in line yards, 11th in opportunity rate, and 25th in yards per rush. UCLA ran for 200 yards in 5 of it’s last 7 games. LSU’s rush defense was a point of weakness last year as their defensive line (who all return) ranked 80th in line yards, 112th in opportunity rate, and ranked 94th in yards per rush attempt allowed. Although UCLA’s defense struggled last year, they improved tremendously from the year before averaging 1.27 yards per play less in 2020, leading the nation by that improvement category. LSU defenses was one of the worst statistically in the school program and brought in a new defensive coordinator, Daron Jones, who has never been a defensive coordinator at the collegiate level before and has a resume full of assistant secondary coaches for various NFL teams. Their offense couldn’ run the ball very effectively at all last year and ranked 108th last year in yards per rush attempt. I got a really bad line on pickmonitor which I used to track but you should have got at least 3 points but I think UCLA wins regardless. If you’re an action Junkie be sure to sprinkle some on the over too. Bookies already starting with screwing with everyone's minds early with these line movements as the total for this one opened at 70.5 and dropped to 64. This scared me off the total so.

Cal -3 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units

Nevada TT Under 24.5 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units

Tired of hearing these small schools being hyped after putting up “BIG NUMBERS” against their cupcake all in conference shit schedules last season. Nevada is one of them, their offense “improved tremendously” from last season increasing their points per game from 21 in 2019 to 30 in 2020! Of course they did, their schedule was a joke with their toughest opponent being San Jose State with a Sagarin strength of schedule ranking of 108th. Last year Cal had more Covid protocol BS then any other team so the poor numbers last year shouldn’t hold much weight. They only played 4 games and before each game 50% of their team told they couldn’t play with back ups everywhere. Head coach Just Wilcox knows how to coach defense and is one of my top rated defensive coaches and he has a very experienced team and QB Chase Garbers returning who I really like and has battled injuries in years past. Expect me to be betting this Cal team a lot this year as I have them highly rated and go ahead and take their TT win total for the season at 6 wins.


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