Dapper Dan Picks - Ncaaf Week 11 104 views

Dapper Dan Picks:

Week 10 Results: 2-8 (-6.69 units)

Season YTD: 31-42 (-14.22 units)

Week 11:

Iowa vs Minnesota Under 58 (-109)

TCU +3 (-109)

Wake Forest +13.5 (-110)

Ole Miss -7 (-112)

Iowa vs Minnesota Under 58 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units

It literally hurts me to take an under in 2020 as the effects of an empty stadium have had a drastic impact on the game and totals specifically. Last year, unders hit at a 48% rate (according to TeamRankings) and a Total +/- differential (for all teams combined) of +5.2. This year although overs have only been hitting at a slightly higher 52% clip, the total +/- differential for all teams is 177! A number that is significantly higher than any other season in the history of record-keeping - expect oddsmakers to adjust totals accordingly (and they have been). Despite all that this is a rare gem of an under due to several factors. Expect both teams to pound the rock and drain the clock. Minnesota currently ranks #10 in rush play % and will continue to stick with that game plan while Iowa should follow suit as in the first two games this season, they had an abnormally high amount of passes throwing 90 times in two games (and subsequently lost) but last week went back to their run heavy offense and were able to control the game like they usually do and use their defense to win. They are a very conserative team especially with the lead so you won’t see the absurd 4th down attempts that plague the league this year once getting to the 50 yard line (coaches be like fuck it - worlds ending). Iowa’s proven to be one of the best run-stopping teams in the country only allowing 2.6 yards per rush on the season and although Minnesota has put up big numbers on offense so far this season averaging 36 points per game, they were against 3 piss poor defenses in Illinois, Maryland, and Michigan (quite a surprise this season). Iowa’s defense is in the Top 20 (even Top 10) in almost all FEI categories as that's the standard in Iowa and the coaches know how to coach defense. Although Minnesota’s defensive numbers are pretty horrible on the season - expect them to improve this week getting to face an Iowa offense that has struggled to adjust to it’s new parts and is ranked in the bottom 10% of all FEI categories. Both coaches are very familiar with each other having played each other's teams the last 3 years, two of which went under the total and I expect that to be the case again in this game.

TCU +3 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units

The numbers for these two teams are pretty equally matched with both defenses being the strength of these teams except one largely impactful number with a huge imbalance. Sagarin’s strength of schedule has TCU’s SOS ranked 18th to date so far opposed to West Virginia who has a 74th SOS. This is a huge disparity especially this season since the conferences are not inner-mingling. West Virginia has feasted on the bottom of their conference while TCU has had a much tougher road to date. TCU is also the much more experienced team ranking 5th in experience charts while WVU ranks 71st. WVU loves to throw the ball (ranked 15th in pass play %) and Gary Patterson’s TCU’s defense are designed to stop the pass and have some of the better corners in the BIG 12 (although this year they have struggled - but against this was against much better passing offenses than WVU). As bad as TCU’s offense is when you factor in SOS, like FEI does, they outrank WVU offense in most categories. West Virginia’s defense sports a great 3.4 yards per rush attempt allowed, but those numbers are heavily padded against their weaker opponents and against Texas Tech, Texas, and Oklahoma State that allowed almost 5 yards per carry. West Virginia has won and covered the spread the last two years in this matchup including a big upset last year as a 14 point dog. Rarely do you see these conference rival games have one team cover and win 3 years straight and I like TCU to pull off the upset this week.

Wake Forest +13.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units

I don’t see how this is not a one possession game as UNC is inconsistent as they come on offense and their defense has struggled heavily in every game where they faced a halfway decent offense. This Wake Forest offense is ranked 34th in O-FEI and it all stems from veteran QB Sam Hartman who despite not having explosive numbers doesn’t make the crucial mistakes being one of the QBs who has yet to throw an INT on the season. UNC is dealing with quite a few injuries, including starting center Brian Anderson who is listed as questionable after being knocked out of the game last week and their backup center Ty Murray got a season ending injury in his relief so they will be very thin on the offensive line. Last year when these two teams faced off Wake Forest outgained UNC by over 100 yards and were favored by 3 and won by 7. This is a huge in-state rivalry game and has a lot of meaning for the ACC as Wake Forest looks to continue their 4 game win-streak after losing their first two so I don’t see how this game doesn’t come down to the last score and worst case we get an easy back door against soft-coverage with this many points. I bought to 14 with my bookie.

Ole Miss -7 (-112) Risking 1.12 units to win 1 units

Locked this number early before the big move. If you can get under 10 I think it’s still good. Ole Miss is one of those offenses that puts up huge numbers against poor defenses but struggles against the better defense. They should score at wil against South Carolina’s defense that has been horrendous this season and yes Ole Miss’s defense has been bad too but South Carolina’s offense is bad enough to shoot themselves in the foot and not keep pace with the high-powered Ole Miss offense. Last week they finally benched starting QB Collin Hill after going 8 for 21 for 66 yards against the aggies but Hillinski is not much better and expect both of them to get some snaps this week.South Carolina has 8 players newly listed on their injury report (most from their defense) and have 14 players who were on their roster at the beginning of the season but are now listed as out so they are definitely shorthanded. Despite losing the few times I’ve backed this team so far this year I think they pull off the big win.


Week 10 Adds: (had like 4 other games I loved canceled so light card not going to force)

Rutgers -5.5 (-109)

Tulsa ML (-106)

Oregon vs Wash St over 57.5 (-105)

Oregon State +14 (-111)

Rutgers -5.5 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1units

Illinois has been decimated by injuries this season (including starting and backup QB) and have yet to be in a close game this season. The only game they were within 7 points was against Purdue where we fortunately caught a backdoor. Rutgers has only won 1 game themselves but their 3 opponents were much better than Illinois (especially considering how bad Minnesota got beat last night). Illinois FEI ratings agree and they have an average ranking of 96th on offense amongst all FEI ratings and average 105th on all defense FEI ratings. At the line of scrimmage, Rutgers presents more mismatches as Illinois defensive line ranks 107th in line yards and 105th power succes rank. Rutgers defensive line ranks 26th in line yards and 35th in Power Success rate outranking Illinois offensive line by an average of 75 ranks for the two categories. Rutgers offensive line should be able to get 2 yards at any time on 3rd or 4th down (the metric that Power Success Rate measures) as Rutgers offensive line ranks 1st in that category while Illinois defensive line is ranked 110th at stopping it. Rutgers under Schiano defends the run well (ranks 29th in yards per rush allowed) and that's what Illinois prefers to do considering all their injuries at QB they ranked 39th in run play percentage. Rutgers is also ranked 5th in TFLs despite the gruesome BIG 10 schedule to date. Illinois defense has been horrible allowing opponents to convert of 60% of 3rd downs, ranking #122 in the league. Let’s take the better defense as I think they show up big as this is a huge game for Rutgers to bring the team back up to 2-2 and keep the players believing in the program turn-around that should happen now under Schiano.

Tulsa ML (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units

This is a revenge match for Tulsa where they lost in a very disappointing fashion last year giving up 21 points in the fourth qtr and losing in OT. They dominated the game averaging more than 1.7 yards per carry more than SMU and averaging 1.0 yard per pass more too but gave up 3 turnovers which was the deciding factor in the game. SMU also relied on converting 6 of 7 fourth downs in order to achieve the miracle come-back win. Tulsa surprisingly has a really good defense this year, ranked in the Top 25 of almost all D-FEI categories. Their defensive line has been the real strength and they rank in the top 10 of almost all defensive line categories and have only allowed 3.5 yards per rush. SMU sports some great numbers on offense but their defense has really struggled ranking in the bottom half of the league in most categories including allowing 4.9 yards per carry and ranking 85th in coverage according to PFF. Tulsa has also had a much stronger SOS as Sagarin has them ranked 57th opposed to SMU who is ranked 99th.

Oregon vs Wash St over 57.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units

Finally, I have decided to start taking some overs based off the numbers. Not sure why I have rarely been taking overs in college football but it’s clear there are plenty of good spots this season in every conference. PAC 12 has yet to play much and I expect their conference to continually to be much of the same, high scoring and no defense (a few good). After beating down on Stanford last week Oregon sits in the top 10 of almost all FEI categories as they continued to drive down the field time and time again with ease under new QB Shough, who looked really good and confident in his 3rd year at the program. Washington State offense did the same against Oregon State and are ranked in the Top 20 of most offensive FEI categories. Oregon was very fortunate to give up as few points as they did to Stanford as they must have missed around 13 field goals. Both Oregon and Washington State’s offensive line crushed it in week 1 as they are ranked 3rd and 2nd in line yards and in the Top 10 of most O-line categories. Both defense lines were near the bottom of the league in most rankings with Washington State being the worst of the two ranking 113th in line yards and 117th in opportunity rate. Oregon’s defensive line gave up 6.4 yards per carry and didnt record a sack. Let’s sit back and enjoy an over for once as blown coverages, 60 yard plays, and trickery are the norm in the PAC 12.

Oregon State +14 (-111) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units

I like our chances in this one with this many points for 3rd year head coach Jonathan Smith who is a great offensive coordinator coincidentally at Washington from 2014-2017 before coming to Oregon State so the coaches are familiar with each other. At Washington, Jonathan Smith turned the program around on offense, in his first year, they ranked 83rd in ypp, 2nd year, ranked 52nd, in his 3rd year they improved all the way to 11th in ypp. Oregon State is on the same trajectory as they struggled in his first year ranking, 114th, but improved dramatically year two ranking 68th, and here we are about to enter year three in his program. The defense also dramatically improved last year under Tim Tibesar, shaving off almost 12 points per game allowed than the year prior. Despite losing last week, Tristan Gebbia looked good completing 70% of his passes for 7 yards per pass. At Washington, we have a whole new program as Peterson left and they are ranked 122nd in experience charts with only very few starters returning. They have yet to play a game due to cancellation last week. I think the fact that Washington has historically beat Oregon State 8 straight years is driving this high number but when you factor in the inexperience of Washington and the fact that they will be implementing a whole new offensive scheme and are one game behind, I think this is just too many points so we take the late night big dogs (maybe sprinkle ML if day doest well)


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