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Dapper Dan Picks - Ncaaf Week 7 118 views

Week 6 Results: 2-9 (-6.25 units)

Season YTD: 15-21 (-6.91 units)

Week 7:

Cinn/Tulsa Under 45.5 (-112) Risking 1.12 units to win 1 units

I’m hating unders this year as overs are hitting at a 55% clip on the season in college FBS as offenses no longer struggle to communicate on the road from packed stadiums. But the numbers give us all kinds of good indicators as to why this is a great under to take. At the line of scrimmage, both defensive lines significantly outrank their offensive counterparts in adjusted line yards, opportunity rank, power success rank, and stuff rankings. Both defensive lines are in the top 15 of almost all categories - something neither offensive line has faced yet this season and yet still have struggled to put up good numbers. Last week, Cincinnati was playing shorthanded on the line as 3 offensive lineman sat out due to unspecified injuries/ailments and will most likely be sitting out this week too and are listed as questionable. FEI and F+ numbers also show a significant advantage for the defenses on both sides of the ball. Cincinnati’s defense outranks Tulsa offense by an average of 50.25 ranks in FEI, Points Per Drive (OPD), Available yards per drive (OYD) and net yards per play (OPP). Tulsa’s defense outranks Cincinnati's offense by an average of 65.5 ranks in the same categories. Take the under and lock in while you can at the key number 45 to be safe but 44 should be good regardless.

Ole Miss ML (-138) Risking 2.07 units to win 1.5 units

Arkansas is very fortunate to be 3-0 ATS on the season as their stats show a different story and they caught a sleeping Georgia in the first half of their first game, and have kept it close with an overrated Auburn and Miss. State team. Somehow Sagarin ratings have Arkansas’s SOS ranked higher than Ole Miss, but I disagree and think Ole Miss has had the toughest schedule to date having played Florida, Kentucky, and Alabama. The Reels offense is finally syncing up and Matt Corral looks like a much better QB than the one who battled for playing time last season. PFF grades him as the 7th best QB (with over 100 pass attempts) despite having some of the worst pass blocking and constantly under pressure he has managed well and protected the football. Fortunately the pass rush is not an area where this Arkansas defense has excelled, ranking 71st in pass rush out of the 76 teams who have played. Ole Miss offense should put up 50+ considering they have already averaged 42 points on the season and I don’t see how this one dimensional Arkansas offense can keep up and ride on the shoulders of Felipe Franks. Arkansas’s rushing attack has been non-existent, averaging 2.4 yards per rush and grading out 76th out 76 teams in run blocking according to PFF. Granted Ole Miss defense is pretty awful but they should be able to get a few stops (or Franks will stop himself by a dumb mistake) and I don’t see how this one is even close which is why we lock in for 1.5 units on the ML.

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Michael awarded 500 tokens for this post.

Are you worried that Ole Miss might be ready for a let down after playing that tough schedule and having a physical game against Alabama

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Tough to predict when teams will have letdown spot, especially this season as the schedules are much more difficult for everyone in the SEC. But I think the desire and need to win and differentiate themselves from the bottom tier teams of the SEC (like Arkansas) will make this game very important to Ole Miss who currently sits at (1-2) on the year. I really think they win this by 14+, if they come out a little flat-footed it may be close, but the speed and coaching will prevail and get the win regardless if they come out a little beat up and tired.

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Week 7 Adds:

Miami/Pitt Over 47.5 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units

Miami’s offense should come out firing against this Pitt defense that relies on applying pressure and making QBs make mistakes. Problem is they won’t be able to bring down and contain King and he should be able to rack up plenty of yards on the ground as well as through the air. Only Zach Wilson has completed more deep balls then Kenny Pickett and you can be sure Pitt will take their fair share of deep shots like Clemson did when 2 of Miami’s 3 safeties were ejected for targeting (one of which will be sitting out first half of this game). Miami’s coverage has struggled in 3 of it’s four games (FSU blows) with a below 65 coverage rating at PFF. Both offenses prefer to throw the ball and I expect this to be a high scoring shootout.

UCF/Memphis Over 73.5 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units

This matchup has a shootout written all over it. These two teams didn’t face off last year but did so twice in 2018 with the first game having a very high total of 80 which went under and then the 2nd matchup the game flew over the total of 65 with a total of 97 points. We have two returning veteran QBs who both averaged over 9 yards per pass last season. We have two offenses that like to run fast-tempo with UCF ranking 1st in plays per game (and a TOP% of only 45%) and Memphis ranking 12th in plays per game. Both teams are running almost 10 more plays per game then last season (and last year they were already up-tempo). Both defenses have struggled in the secondary, with Memphis ranking 58th in team passing efficiency defense and have already given up 9 passing plays over 25 yards in their first two games (in only 89 pass attempts) . UCF’s secondary has been degressing over the last 3 games, really struggling last week against Tulsa and a horrible PFF coverage rating of 43.8. Both defenses also struggle with tackling ranking 55th and 32nd (against soft teams too). UCF’s biggest weakness on offense has been their offensive line, struggling to give Gabriel time to throw ranking 66th in pass blocking but the defensive line is not a huge strength of this Memphis defense ranking 47th in sack %. Both offenses love to throw the ball (over 50% of the time) and both offenses out-rank the defenses in every FEI, F+, and SP+ ranking scales. Both defenses have made the most of turnover opportunities as UCF is averaging 4 take-aways per game and Memphis 2.5 per game. Both offenses have struggled to protect the ball with UCF giving away 1.7 turnovers per game and Memphis 2.5. Let’s hope we get a couple of these turn-overs in short fields and not after an 80 yard drive but I think this one goes well over the total as both teams will look to run-up the score against their AAC rivals. The weather should be perfect football weather, 60 degrees, and 0 chance of rain.

Georgia +4.5 (-113) Risking 1.13 units to win 1 units

Gerogia ML (+183) Risking .5 to win .92 units

I actually locked this in with my bookie at 7 before Saban got Covid but I didnt lock it in pickmonitor so I got the crappy number but figure you’re good and think UGA wins outright (will possibly add ML too). As good and explosive offenses have become in college football, the old adage runs true - defense wins games. And this Georgia has by far the best defense by the numbers and this Alabama defense has definitely taken a step back this season. According to F+ and SP+, UGA is ranked #1 on both scales - a rare feat. In FEI rankngs, they are ranked 2nd defensively, and 6th in points per drive, 2nd in available yards per drive and 4th in net yards per play. In contrast, Alabama’s FEI rankings are nowhere near as good, although they ranked 12th in FEI, their DPD ranks 55th, their DAY ranks 60th and DPP ranks 44th. Although Alabama’s offense ranks 1st in FEI, F+, and SP+, the most difficult defense they have faced was Texas A&M which has a crappy secondary themselves but are still much better than Missouri and Ole Miss’s defense, two teams Alabama heavily padded their stats against. Georgia is also in the top 10 of every defensive category that PFF grades, with Alabama not even in the Top 25 of ANY category. I love Stetson Bennett because he’s a smart game manager that doesnt give bad throws and can get yards on the ground too. I love this play and will most likely be adding the ML too closer to gametime as all the squares put their money on the bama ML.

UNC vs FSU Over 64 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units

I don’t think the bookies could put a number high enough for this shootout. FSU’s offense looks much better with Blackman finally benched and Jordan Travis starting. He was very accurate on his deep balls against Notre Dame and was able to do lots of damage with his legs too rushing for almost 100 yards. FSU’s biggest problem on offense is their offensive line and Travis was scrambling for his life against Notre Dame but I don’t expect that to be the case against this UNC front. UNC defensive line does have an 8.2 sack% ranking 21st in FBS but 7 of their 11 sacks on the season came in the first game against a piss poor Syracuse. Both defenses have struggled and UNC’s PFF tackling ranking is currently ranked 72nd even against the poor teams they have had lots of mis-tackles. Last week, FSU’s defensive line was getting gashed by Notre Dame as they ran for 353 yards and 8.4 yards per carry. North Carolina’s rushing attack is currently ranked #1 according to PFF and they should have a field day after rushing for 400 yards last week against Virginia Tech. I already talked a lot about Howell in my last write-up and he’s living up to the hype this season completing 70% of his passes and averaging 9.3 yards per pass. We continue to see point total records being broken every week as not having packed stadiums seems to be a clear advantage to offenses and it doesn't look like the bookies have fully adjusted to that yet. This should be an enjoyable over to bet as well as both offenses score at will.

Kentucky +6.5 (+101) Risking 1 unit to win 1.01 units

Kentucky/Tenn Under 45.5 (-114) Risking 1.14 units to win 1 units

These two coaches are very familiar with each other and I can’t believe I am locking in another under but this matchup and this Kentucky team specifically are a recipe for unders this season. I can’t believe the market continues to favor Tennessee and give no respect to Kentucky this season. Kentucky’s defense is one of the best in the SEC with it’s lockdown corners Brandon Echols and Kelvin Joseph who held Mississippi State's defense to 0 points last season. Their edge rushers often drop into coverage too and have racked up two INTs on the season. Their defense is ranked in the Top 25 of most important defensive categories including yards per rush (ranked 12th), opponent 3rd down % (ranked 19th), opponent yards per pass (ranked 19th) and red zone scoring (ranked 7th). Tennessee defense has also been tough this season, ranking 20th in yards per rush allowed, 35th in completion percentage allowed, and 34th in red zone scoring percentage. Kentucky loves to control the clock and run slow methodical offenses allowing their run game to break defenses down over time and not go for the big play. They don't have much of a deep threat with Terry Wilson throwing. I expect this outcome to be much like the last two years where the two teams combined for 30 and 31 points combined. Kentucky will be in a revenge spot though and I think they get some push up front in their run game like UGA did last week racking up almost 200 yards on the ground. Both teams struggle with the kicking game as neither kicker has hit over 50% of their kicks on the season. This is a rare game where I take the total and the side but I think its a safe bet and worth a wager.

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Argh, Pickett is out! :-( Shoulda just bet MIAMI.

After digging into Miss St/Tex AM a bit more I decided to just take Miss State with the big upset.

Adding:

Mississippi State +4.5 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units

Mississippi State ML (+167) .5x Risking .5 units to win .84 units

The media is bombarding us with the struggles of Leaches air raid offense but there’s much reason to believe that this will be a different story this game. Unlike Kentucky last week, Texas A&M has one of the worst secondary's in the league ranking 71st in coverage rating and 63rd in tackling ratings, according to PFF. I think they will put up plenty of yards and points like they did against LSU where they threw for 623 yards and 44 points. More surprisingly when I looked into this game was the quality of defense Miss. State has had so far this season. They are ranked #9th in sack%, 21st in opponent yards per pass allowed, 4th in yards per rush allowed, 4th in 3rd down conversion %, and 25th in completion % compare that to A&M who are ranked 55th in sack %, 73rd in opponent yards per pass, 23rd in yards per rush allowed, 64th in 3rd down conversion % and 72nd in completion % allowed. By the numbers, it almost feels like the wrong team is favored based on an over-reaction to last week's games. Texas AM took advantage of a terrible UF secondary and barely squeaked out a win thanks to a few key mistakes by Florida at pivotal times. Mond is one of those QBs who puts up great numbers against the weaker teams but struggles against the better defenses and should be under pressure and make a couple mistakes. Mississippi State pulls off the upset and the ESPN pundits will be back to talking about how great this team is like they were after they upset LSU week 1.

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