Defensive Mechanisms 569 views

Defensive mechanisms are the glue that hold your bankroll together, and allow your offensive game plan to generate steady gradual revenues.

There are specific defensive mechanisms you can put in place prior to embarking on your season long quest for profits. They include, but are not limited to:

  • Establish a foundation from which you will be comfortable enough to withstand losses, and continue with your plan of attack without causing undue stress. This is your starting bankroll.
  • Establish a unit structure as a percentage amount in relation to your foundation. Depending on your comfort zone, this can range from 2% to 5%, as a general rule of thumb. Bear in mind, and conservatively thinking, the unit structure you choose should be one that will remain fixed throughout an entire season. I will explain why in the conclusion portion of this post. This self regulated disciplined routine will serve to provide an edge to the sports player to hopefully avoid falling by the wayside of 'tilt'.
  • Risk or reverse? This option is entirely up to the sports player. For newcomers, the risk option may be the approach to take. It is more conservative, and gives complete control of the unit structure to the bettor. Reverse juice entails more risk, but with this risk brings the opportunity for greater reward. An experienced player that can effectively withstand greater swings may find this option more useful. This option is also dramatically more beneficial to sports players with a high win rate, enabling them to capitalize with full unit gains when wagering on favorites.
  • Emotional detachment. We all enjoy the action and entertainment, myself included, that is inherent with watching the sporting events we have financial interest in. The employment of this defensive mechanism is not to hinder people from spectating the games completely. People have varying levels of emotional feedback associated with the events they have money risked on. If you can handle the chemistry that goes on inside your brain by way of limiting the highs and lows, then this should not pose a problem for you. However, the primary thought process behind 'emotional detachment' is to be conscious of the long term investment approach, and not dial in, or become obsessed with, short term results. Investors do not engage in obsessive behavioral patterns from the standpoint of watching their mutual funds or retirement savings plans by the minute, day, week, and some, not even years. This would be synonymous with the phrase "watching the grass grow". Gamblers are always seeking the quick strike with reckless abandon, no game plan, and in the majority, if not all, cases, lose everything, because of their shortsightedness.
  • Limit your daily plays. The high volume approach coinciding with the low variance argument does not hold water in the real world IMO, especially from the viewpoint of a seller. IMO, this is a gambler methodology that includes a quick strike approach, that even if successful in the short run, always carries an extremely high risk and ever present threat of bankroll destruction in a very short period of time. This has happened numerous times right here on Pick Monitor for all to see.

In conclusion, it is the defensive mechanisms you put in place well before placing your first wager that create a positive and comfortable environment, and allow you to operate with more peace of mind, in the face of all the advantages the bookmaker has over their clientele. The reason why I stipulated earlier "the unit structure you choose should be one that will remain fixed throughout an entire season", is because you should always have in place an end goal for your investment. The program I recommend to my client base is the Annual Gradual Growth Strategy (AGGS). Depending upon your starting foundation, and end of season results, this plan entails withdrawing your initial investment after year 1, and playing with the house money in year 2 and going forward. Your unit structure can then be your chosen percentage of the available year 2 starting bankroll. Upon completion of year 2, then adjust your unit structure once again to be a percentage of the available year 3 staring bankroll. This is a conservative approach, but it works efficiently as a long term investment, with the obvious being, of course, you are generating positive results.

Have a great day everyone!

A defensive strategy I've considered in the past, but never embarked on, is a micro parlay fading all or the majority of the day's picks -- the logic being that, were I to get "unlucky" one day, the parlay would act as an insurance policy and refund a good portion of the day's losses. What are your thoughts on this Tim?
An interesting thought algoBettor. I have considered that very same scenario in the past, but just as you explained, have never put it into practice either. The main reason for not attempting this action personally was due to my NHL predictions, that being I have not had enough zero win days, and normally have only one or two plays, to warrant doing it. That being said, it may work well with MLB or American football for me, as I have had more zero win days, and it may very well make sense to do this, from my personal perspective :)

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