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Do You Have A System That You Use Or Do You Bet With Instinct? 649 views

I come across different types of bettors all the time. I have seen some pretty sophisticated systems and some not so much. Some use analytics and stats. Some use an algorithm. Some use the advice of others (articles from ESPN or by watching betting shows) and some are picking with good ol fashion gut instinct. And while I'm sure that humankind would not have survived without the help of gut instinct. Society has evolved past pure instinct into more sophisticated ways of survival. And while some may find some short term success with gut instinct, I am convinced that it will not be enough to sustain a long term winning record that is profitable in the sports betting industry.

So I am curious what kind of system do you use?

I can understand that the question I am asking can be sort of touchy. So feel free to disclose or withhold whatever you like. I am simply looking for people that are serious about this industry. A brief overview would be sufficient, but if you are willing to be transparent, I can assure you that it will be to your benefit. This industry is filled with many more seedy characters than honest ones. If you would like to set yourself apart this would be a good start.

You can post your comment here in this thread or you can also email me.

Doing your homework and the necessary leg work is vital to success in this business. Luck is when preparation meets opportunity!

Best regards and best of luck,

Sports Dave

[email protected]


Edited 11/12/19 at 12:51PM by SportsDave - Change of wording

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So, several factors go into my decisions. They are all different depending on the sports. I have algorithms I use in some sports while I use stats strictly from simple websites to reach a decision, with fairly good success in other sports. The last thing I will add to this is "when you think you know something, that's when you get into trouble"

Edited 11/12/19 at 7:59AM by RealityCheck - No reason listed.

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I started into the sports betting world as an emotional, gut feeling bettor. Needless to say it didnt go well and I lost my ass alot. Since getting deeper and deeper into the holds of the betting world I have navigated towards analyzing line movements, trends, fading the public, and other small factors that can give you a slight edge or so you think. The truth is nobody knows whose going to win or lose the games all you can do is give your reasoning to why theyre going to win so people that take your picks can place the bet with confidence.

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LongTermValue awarded 50 tokens for this post.

Hey Dave,


Thanks for yet another interesting discussion opener here on the forum=)


Personally I have 10-25 factors that need to me taken into account (depending on the sport). The more experienced in our team have even more, and of course more sophisticated ones. An algorithm for soccer by our most nerdy team member should be ready in 2020. Chances are he will turn out to be EVEN MORE NERDY than Michael himself ;D

Having said that in some sports, like Formula 1 few stats are too relevant and the element of "gut feeling" is pretty big! Stats like" Ferrari have won 4 last years on this track" can be even misleading stats as cars change quickly as does the driver line up..weather too.. "We have the qualifying results here - will Ferrari or Mercedes be faster in the race in XXX conditions " There are actually only a few key variables to take a look, and despite the fact that driver's role is over-rated in Formula 1 it's of course driver +combo that decides the result. Many bettors try to find an edge watching and analyzing free practices.. To be honest those offer very little info these days and the drivers often speak total rub**sh, perhaps to hide things from rivals or even..


-Mari N.

Edited 11/12/19 at 8:54AM by LadyBet - No reason listed.

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SOCCER_BETTING awarded 50 tokens for this post.

Hey guys thanks for responding to the post. As some of you know I create videos to give out free picks to spark some interest in the Pick Monitor community and promote some good handicappers. I believe we have some very talented handicappers on the site and I wanted to pose this topic to bring out some people to possibly start working with by promoting their style, their brand, their picks and maybe do an interview with those that are brave enough to be on video. If you think you would be interested please contact me.

Best regards and best of luck!

Sports Dave

[email protected]

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I use all of those mentioned. Sometimes I'll use gut instinct before analytics & stats when I see an opening line that makes me look twice, and I use gut instinct while placing my bet. If my gut tells me that even if the wager turns out to be a loser that I still made the correct decision and I would place the same wager again, then I can rest easy regardless of the outcome. I often like to look at what other handicappers are thinking, but this I have come to find is the least important. Oftentimes I would find myself just using other's opinions to reaffirm what I already knew, or looking at it with my own bias getting in the way of a clear analysis. Also many other so-called handicappers on these websites are just crap and shouldn't be listened to anyways. Taken with a grain of salt at the very least. Analytics and stats are probably around 70% of my system. This way, I rely on the numbers far more than my gut which keeps me out of trouble, but leaves some human aspect to interpret the numbers in real world terms. After all, it's not robots out there moving the ball around. As amazing as computers are, they aren't everything. The more boxes checked off regarding my system, the stronger I like the pick. And I'd say if less than 75-80% of the boxes are checked, I no longer consider the bet. Forget it and move on without looking back.

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SportsDave awarded 100 tokens for this post.

Thanks for the post. I echo some of the journeys sniperline & OTL have said previous. With all the algorithms and data that are at our fingertips (all great and all should be part of the decision making process), lately I've found success looking at situational or what many would call the human element of games. IE, "How a team will bounce back after a crushing loss". In some cases the teams motivation could be the difference between a few points of value or even better a whole moneyline outright winner.

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SportsDave awarded 100 tokens for this post.

Im a market player, I don't look at teams. I'm not a sports fan (i've been to a few MLB games). I look for value. If someone shows up flipping a coin and pays +105 for heads I'm all over it. I've been in the gaming industry for 35 years, I know how this game works. YOU CAN'T WIN CONSISTENTLY ON GUT INSTINCT OR PERFORMANCE BIAS. You will get sucked up in the "Juice vacuum." I'm not good at everything, nobody is. I use this site to test/track my performance and BTW it has been very useful.

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I've built a system that i'm trying to use 100% numbers and no gut instinct. It's been really challenging to follow things exactly because I have a lot of personal bias to work through. It's based around building game simulations from the ground up and then using clustering to identify when games are in the most profitable zone for betting to increase my unit size. I'm definitely feeling a little bit alone on an island with this strategy because there is precious little discussion of doing true simulations because people seem so focused on line movements/arbitrage and I'm much more focused on finding the true outcomes.

I'm working on finding the zone of profitability where Vegas moves the line to keep the money balanced and take their vig and so the line is significantly away from the actual likely outcome. It seems to be working so far on spread betting whereas totals feel a little more opaque so I'm no longer betting them.

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tbaker5390 awarded 100 tokens for this post.

Hey Ive gotten some good responses on this thread. If any of you are interested, I would like to interview you about your system or maybe you can write a piece that can explain the framework. I would be happy to give some people more exposure to get you more followers.

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I use the algorithm that I have build on my own but it is not specific and you it is not hard to implement. But I will not deny that sometimes I bet with instinct. I prefer to palce bets for esport games such as CS:Go, Dota 2 and LoL.

I have one rule. I do not spend more than 10% of my month income for betting and I do not consider betting as a main income. It is more like an enterntainment and an ability to check my knowledge and luck.

My bets are based on the researched and analysed information that I gather from esports website. I prefer to learn the results of the finished matches and tournaments and watch the results of different teams. I also leearn everything about the face-to-face meetings between two teams. Also, I build my own predictions for upcoming matches adn than I learn all predictions for upcoming matches made by specialists to compare what I have made. Also, I can recommned to watch the games on your own and try to paly some games on yoru own. Also, you should think logically and sometimes you must place the best not for your beloved team but for the competitor.


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SportsDave awarded 100 tokens for this post.

Successful soccer betting tips are based on several factors, including statistical analysis and situational trends. Motivational and psychological factors, head-to-head history, team news, roster changes, injuries, suspensions and recent form are also important.

Patience and discipline are the most important!

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SportsDave awarded 100 tokens for this post.

Hey this is actually SportsDave. I just made another profile for video tutorial purposes.

But if anyone would like to chime in with some insight on a system that they use and have a track record of it working, please feel free to share or contact me. For those that would like to sell picks... Some customers like to know what the cake is made with before they eat it, but at the end of the day the person making the cake is the secret ingredient.

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SportsDave awarded 1000 tokens for this post.

Just wanted to say fantastic post, Would love to explain how i go about making my plays but that would Intel a massive post that i'm not ready to commit to tonight lol, I'm brand spanking new here but i have a lot of knowledge and experience in the betting world that i'm willing to share over time. Also interesting to see others thought process in making their selections, as there is more than 1 way slice a pie.

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SportsDave awarded 100 tokens for this post.

For college basketball, I have a model. For MMA/Boxing it is more of a gut instinct, and an analysis of styles. For example, the upcoming Jan 18. 2020 fight between Conor McGregor vs Donald Cerrone. I feel that Conor McGregor is going to starch Donald Cerrone in the first or second round, because McGregor is a fast starter, has great striking, and power. Meanwhile Cerrone is slow, and past his expiration date.

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I never rely on instinct except for MMA most of the time. But I still observe line movements for those match ups. All other sports I rely on a algorithm model, and also one that provides value. I get my games from a data model, that gives me trends and helps me decide if an advantage with this line. I then take that set of games and look at the line movements and try to determine why there is a move. Was it an injury, suspension, etc...etc... I like to beat the closing line when possible as well. But it is not the end all be all. I also look if it has high visibility with the public. Sometimes the best games are the smaller conferences say in college football. I remember one year I bet a lot of San Jose St. football games and made a lot of money. I have certain rules as well, I will never bet on a goal line in Hockey/Soccer where I'm giving goals. I rather be on the dog side with the goal line. It just hits higher percentage. So basically, look for a set of games feel an edge. Then observe the line if moved, what the public and the money is doing. I don't chase steam, except when feel appropriate based on if a lot of bet tickets or not. I feel you have to mentally strong to do this long term. If you have attitude this is a lottery and going to chase, then you will lose. It is a grind, like an investment fund basically. I notice that attitude and philosophy tend to do better. I also believe in taking breaks away as it can take a mental toll. I will also follow certain rules I observe. Say a line in College Football game is +28 on the dog and the over under in the 52-56 range. Well I like the dog most times as I have a good ratio by getting 50% or better on that one side. I also, many times in NFL when I see +5, that tells me they are having trouble setting a good line. So I tend stay away or lean dog. Also in soccer, a lot of times in Brazil leagues, if the trend that season is heavy on the draws for games, then if I see where the draw odds are the second best number over the dog side, and the over under in goals is 2. Well that tells me a good chance, were getting a 1-1 draw. So I will bet a draw in those instances. I'm also a big believer in studying. There are many good books about sharp bettors/smart bettors, Billy Walters stories, and examples of styles of Professional Gamblers. Always good to talk with others in the industry to learn what works and what doesn't work. I have been doing this for 35 years, I have noticed over time, I have simplified things quite a bit and still been effective. Sometimes to much information can cause you to hesitate. By belief numbers don't lie. It is best to bet numbers and not teams.

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Intuition is the 400 lbs Silverback patiently waiting to speak.

Analysis is the 5 lbs Chihuahua that won't shut the front door.

Pure intuition trumps the most sophisticated algorithms, even AI, when one can tap into it sufficiently.

But, then again, one has to be a natural or be well-trained in such faculty in order to be effective. Both are attainable just like being a natural athlete or one that trained relentlessly to be a pro.

Edited 12/11/19 at 2:38AM by psiman - No reason listed.

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