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Do You Know How To Manage A Bankroll? 287 views

Hello Pick Monitor community,

I am looking for handicappers that are capable of teaching others how to manage their bankroll. If you feel that you are articulate and thorough enough to teach people how, please respond to this post or send me a message. A lot of people jump into sports handicapping because they can pick winners (or at least they think they can, lol), but being a successful handicapper takes more than picking winners and being able to manage a bankroll is extremely important. So I would like to discuss ways to get this important information out to the masses and while doing so perhaps give some much deserved recognition to the person(s) that would be willing to share their experience and knowledge on the matter. BOL!

SportsDave

[email protected]

Edited 11/5/19 at 10:15PM by SportsDave - No reason listed.

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((Win probability decimal % x (decimal odds-1) - Losing probability decimal %) / (decimal odds-1))

For those who are allergic to mathematical formulas, Kelly criterion for a 55% handicapper making straight bets with typical -110 spread odds is about 5.5% of bankroll. Moneyline betting is where adherence to Kelly principles becomes crucial.

This is really all anyone needs to know. No need to reinvent the wheel and make it more complicated than it needs to be.

Most veteran handicappers already know this information or have at least heard of the "5% rule". That part isn't hard - Its the commitment to adhering to one's bankroll rules where most fall short. Discipline isn't something you can teach someone overnight. Its developed over a lifetime of building character. The hard truth is if you're past your younger years in life and you don't already have that ingrained in your character, you probably never will.

Edited 11/6/19 at 8:54AM by LockSoccerPicks - No reason listed.

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Kelly/6 is safe even when probability estimation is not accurate ( and it never is, right) Almost all the pro or semi pro bettors I know use Kelly's criterion.. divider seems to vary between 3 and 8..

I think setting up a separate bankroll ( not your gas money ) for betting is stage 1 !

Stege 2: at least try to calculate a probability estimation for your bet to win=) If this feels impossible you should not be betting, or at least not expect a positive return! Also if say the Las Vegas line is +130 and your estimation is 75%, you are probably lost with your estimation and should investigate the match more.. If you buy picks I would recommend really trusting the tipster's advice on in bankroll management and NEVER risk more than 4% on one bet.

A bit busy here with 2 sick kids - interesting topic. Hope many PM members participate.


-Mari N

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I agree with LSP and LadyBet, but both offer advice to long-term winning handicappers who already know this stuff. For 99% of people who bet on sports, this topic is like reading the last chapter of a book first.

Most people think betting on sports means trying to pick which team will win the game or cover the spread. That's completely wrong. A handicappers job is to identify the chance each team has of winning or covering and comparing that to the posted lines or spreads offered at sportsbooks. This means you will need to build math models using the data analytics for each particular sport, then have algorithms reduce all that data to a winning percentage for each team. Convert those percentages to money lines for comparing to posted lines at books. For point spreads, you will need to identify the change of covering various spreads for comparing to posted lines.

Notice none of this has anything to do with who you think is going to win the game. How much you know about a particular sport isn't going to help. Having played the sport in college or even professionally isn't going to help. In fact, the worst handicappers of all time are guys who played professional sports. See Pete Rose for example. Who knew more about baseball than him? But he lost a ton betting on baseball because he thought he just had to pick who he thought was going to win.

So what's all this have to do with bankroll management? Well 99% of people are going to lose their entire bankroll betting on sports, so the best advice to them is to bet as little as possible. Best bet would be zero dollars. Kelly in any form will only cause these people to lose their bankroll even faster.

If you choose to follow a proven long-term winner, I agree with LadyBet that you should follow his money management precisely.

Here's a freebie for today: 707 Charlotte +4

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Wise words from EppleySports. A good idea from SportsDave as PM's strategy is not just sell picks but build a community of all kinds of bettors - from rookies to pros, with an analytical or even educational vibe=) Totally agree with EppleySports on priorities in successful betting. The process of making a % estimation would be an interesting topic for Dave's videos!


"Kelly/6 is safe even when probability estimation is not accurate ( and it never is, right)"


I wanna explain this a bit. Of course I meant that the bettor has to be able to beat the bookie with his estimations in the long run. By "not accurate" I meant say a handicapper estimates 57% for team X and the real % is say 54% in this scenario kelly/6 would be safe for the bankroll. Of course thousands of bets are needed to see how close the handicapper's probability estimation and real % were. Say 10 000 bets , -105 line, bets 570 bets won (estimated) vs 540 actually won..


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$20 a month, at end of month all goes into 2nd bank account, start over. Plus 10% of pay goes into 2nd account for Futures.
Only bet on games under the "Mendoza Rule" which is -150 or $1.67. no more than -2.5 on lines as that's genarally the -150 mark.
Only bet on teams that are less than the books total take, generally 100.3% take here, so they'te not making commission off my winnings, and stick to my own system.

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Well, I guess that I am the minority on this subject. I don't believe in ANY money management system where you change your wager size depending if you are winning or losing. Flat bet with a set wager amount for a given time period. Simple rules: no more than 5% (of bankroll) risk per wager, risk no more than 20% of your bankroll at one time, adjust wager amount every Monday according to bankroll. When you start your handicapping in the morning, determine what your plays WILL be or COULD be. Don't stray from those picks.

Edited 11/13/19 at 10:18AM by RealityCheck - No reason listed.

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dave i added you to my group a while back i did a 3 page writeup on this 3 years you have permission to use any of it it in a video or any venture

best of luck


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