Finding A Needle In The Haystack 822 views

Operating within an industry that is unregulated, time consuming, and chock full of scam artists & fraudulent claims is an extremely tasking process. Finding a handicapper/forecaster that is technically profitable but also a viable investment is also a very time strapping and patience testing experience. I have read countless times on Pick Monitor that no handicapper/forecaster should even be considered by a prospective buyer unless they have a minimum 1000 documented picks. Taking this advice is fine, although the seller had better have a sufficient ROI to compensate for the purchasing expenses of the buyer, relatively speaking.

Everything calculated over time by percentages becomes increasingly difficult to improve the since the bottom line figures react in the same manner as that of a batter's hitting average. As more at bats are completed, the positive increase accrued with each hit does not equally match the decrease incurred with each out, and so it is extremely important to understand that one statistical piece of data will never explain the entire picture, and some hold no benefit whatsoever.

Have a great day everyone!


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It sure can be difficult to find upstanding people in any setting, but this is especially true in sports "touting". People have long memories of "touts" that offer things and fail to back them up. All too often these slippery characters will wait, just beneath the surface until a time they believe the collective may have forgotten the transgressions of yesterday. They can not seem to help themselves though, despite the easily found information of their failed to follow through histories, they just seem to thrive on the well known old time saying

There is a sucker born every minute

I would caution anyone from signing up with any handicapper without conducting some background searching, not just in their pick selection, but if the resource is available I would also read their posts in forums to get a more accurate read on the type of person you may be giving your money to.

Edited 1/26/15 at 8:48PM by Chico1856 - No reason listed.


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I think that a lot of people are either too busy or dont have the time to do the necessary research to make an educated decision, but their urge to have action on a game outweighs their better senses to just watch and enjoy a sporting event without money on the line. I say this because I have been found guilty of this before.

However the legalization of gambling is going to bring people out of the wood works to try and make a quick buck, either betting on sports or by posing as a professional handicappers. Hopefully transparent sites like this one can help weed out a lot of the phonies


Wouldn't a monthly cash over cash ROI be a useful statistic to compute? I.e. if you have a $100 per unit bet and in the past month the prospective handicapper had a maximum negative run of 5 units then you would need $500 of bankroll to have invested in that handicapper. If they then have a 2.5 unit upside after 50 picks then your ROI is $250/$500 (50%) rather than the standardized $250/$25000 (1%)


If your betting 100/unit then you better have a lot more than 500. Just because last month there was no drawdown farther than -5 doesn't mean that's the maximum. And if you turn 500 into 750, you have to calculate all those 100 bets as money at risk so ROI is not 50%. If you put 500 in a bank or some investment and it turns into 750, then that's 50% interest or gain because only 500 was the total at risk.


Bankrolls are mythical 99% of the time. Almost no one dedicates a certain amount of money to betting with no intention of withdrawing from or adding to it, as needed. Just figure out a unit size that makes sense for you.

Optimizing bet size incorrectly is rarely what limits success. Lack of skill, other hand...

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When estimating an edge (your own or someone else's), you need to ignore structures that merely amplify variance -- such as parlays or correlated picks (betting ATS and ML on same game).


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It's real simple. Bet the other side (Fade) my picks and you will WIN.

I use PM to chart new systems have not actually launched yet.

Heavy on a Teaser Card. I will play a Parlay for a Big Payout.


maybe fade yourself, bet 5 on a game then bet 100 opposite side. Lol. That would be interesting


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