Home In The Bubble 116 views

With the NBA and NHL playing all games on neutral courts / ice, should any consideration be given to the listed home team? In the NHL, the home team gets to make the last line change, which allows them to get favorable match-ups. So you should still give .10 or .15 cents to the listed home team, depending on the quality of coaching. That's slightly lower than what would normally be given to a traditional home team with fans. Obviously that emotional push from fans is missing.

In the NBA there's no quantitative edge to being listed as the home team. Teams don't get more time outs or get the ball first or last, etc. It's true that role players shoot better when there's not a hostile crowd, but this is true for both teams so being listed as home team is insignificant. So don't add the normal 4 or 5 points to the home team in the bubble games.

Here's a free one for today. Columbus +140 vs Toronto. PDO's are 99.7 for Columbus and 99.8 for Toronto, so both teams are playing to expectations. Neither is lucky or unlucky. Toronto has a better Corsi For at 52.1, compared to 49.1 for Columbus, which indicates Toronto should control the puck more often. What's interesting is Toronto has a high Corsi Against (very bad) but a very high Corsi For (really good). So the Leafs like to play to the extremes. Columbus is more consistent, both For and Against. Also, Columbus save% is .916, nearly a full percentage point better than league average, while Toronto's. 901 is about a half point worse than average. My model has Toronto winning this game 52.2% of the time, which is -109. So a generous price of +140, which is 41.7%, gives us close to a 6% edge in price on the more consistent and better defensive team.

Hope all your bets win today.


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