Horses 4,963 views

I have a few situational system picks in horse racing that I figured I'd share from time to time. Obviously, in horses, you always get the closing line, so there is no way to know what odds you'll get when you make the bet. Additionally, the house edge is always ~23%, so...tread lightly -- if at all!

For tomorrow, I like horse #2 (Ganso Galopante), Fair Grounds, Race 3, to win (9/2 morning line). The angle is based primarily on first time starters (2 year olds) with quality trainers. Good luck.


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Hey Evo,

Glad to see you back on the forum,

Genuine question - I know 0 about horse racing - what makes horse racing interesting for you? Usually you will start to listen to a sport because you have a home team or some boxer has a great story. What's the appeal within the sport that makes you want to watch.


One thing is that Andy Beyer was a childhood friend of my father's, so I had always thought handicapping horses might be interesting. That said, I've focused almost exclusively on sports and finance for the last 20 years. Finally getting around to checking out horse racing, and looking for edges based on historical situations (recent perf, trainer record, restedness, post position, etc.). I watch a few races on TVG, and occasionally hit the track at Belmont, but mostly just handicap the stats.

It's very experimental still for me and, as I said, the house edge is massive, so you cannot afford to be aggressive early. I have a "stable" of 5-10 systems that I am tracking and betting lightly. I'll continue to share a few here if there is any interest. If anyone else has particular angles or ratings they have used with success, feel free to chime in!


Good luck sir & thanks for the analysis! My first bet & I'm putting a few $s on this bet:

Fair Grounds [ 12/16/2018 ] Race #3 $ 8.5 Trifecta (2 / 3 / 1, 5) BOX-KEY
Fair Grounds [ 12/16/2018 ] Race #3 $ 50 Straight (2: 25/15/10)

Id advise anyone who has not gotten into horse racing as of yet to stay far far away to me it is and always has been the hardest game to beat and also imo it is the most addictive the “1 time” phrase that echo’s at every otb and racetrack can cost you dearly it is a tough game for sure

You can lower your hose edge playing at different tracks the takeout at for example kentucky downs is fair compared to others or a rem park

I myself will only play pick 5’s because of the 10-15 % rake

Another hard part about the game now is everyone has t graph also the sheets are widely used so that edge they gave you is lonngggg one

Just a tough game best of luck on your future plays and stay disciplined no game will test that more than the pony’s


Huge part of the take is the breakage. Believe it or not there some horse racing executives talking about .01 cent breakage. That would be a dream come true providing they don't raise the "Juice." Currenltly with small payouts breakage can increase the take over 10% on top of set rake.


Stay away as Philly said is surely the best suggestion. If you do play, check out the YouTube link above I posted.

John is enjoyable to listen to and he has a system he NEVER waivers from. For those that truly do follow a tight BRM plan

you may really enjoy him. Also, when he hits he hits huge.


If you are in a state or where you can legally register and use TVG it can be a lot of fun but def addictive like already said in here.


I used to play the Aussies a lot because of the 3rd shift hours they run. They have very large fields and fun too.


Nothing but admiration to anyone that can make a living off the pony’s, betting sports has been my living for 15-20 now time flies, and yes it has gotten harder more so because of the copy and paste books and the euro quick to ban influence... long gone are the neteller days and the real bookmaker’s, that being said the very very small % that play the pony’s as their only source of income is just remarkable to me

Goldendd is that happens i will be shocked horse racing is so behind in everything i mean they litterally just reformed that taxing structure on tickets which should of been done years ago once they added wagers under $2 dollars for exotics


Sunday's pick finished 4th in a photo, but was way back from the winner, so not close to cashing.

Getting back in the saddle for Tue, I like First Victory (horse #1) to be true to his name in race 1 at Mountaineer. M/L is 7/5. The theory is that highly rated favorites in large-field sprints tend to win at an even higher rate than expected. Historical ROI of the situation (all tracks, last 12 months) has been +2% at average odds of ~1/1.

Good luck.


Good news is that First Victory cruised to a win. Bad news is that he paid only 3/10 (risk 10 to win 3, or -333 in money line terms). Anyway, a win's a win!

For tracking purposes, I'll assume one unit risked for every pick, which puts us at one win out of two races, for a total return of -0.7 units. (All bets are to win only).

For Wednesday, let's keep it in WV. I'm taking Mega Monster (#2) in Race 5 at Mountaineer. 3/1 morning line. Similar spot (superior horse in a short race), but one that also plays off the horse's most recent perf. (3rd in a strong field) and running style (early speed). This situation has produced a +10% ROI last 12 months.

Good luck.


Mega Monster edged out a mean horse named Regina George to pull out the win. One could argue playing the horses is worth it for the names alone.. Anyway, payout was 7/5 (+140), bringing us to 2/3 wins and a total return of +0.7 units in the thread.

For Thursday, let's go to Gulfstream. I like longshot Sambucca Steve (#1) in Race 1. 10/1 morning line. This angle plays on horses who faded down the stretch last race and are now moving down in distance. The 12-month ROI of the angle is +79%. Of course, some of this is from a backtest and it's naturally driven by a few big wins -- but such is the nature of the beast in horses. GL to all.


Sambucca Steve (14/1 closing odds) did not pull through, dropping the thread record to 2/4, -0.3 units.

For Friday, 12/21, I'm eyeing Golden Brown (#2) in Race 8 at Aqueduct. This is my favorite longshot situation, where the horse is likely better than his last finish indicated. ROI of +50% last 12 mos. M/L is 15-1, so hoping for a miracle.


Decent chance racing gets cancelled tmw at Aqueduct, so adding one more for Friday (based on same angle):

Seattle Treasure (#2) in Race 9 at Gulfstream. 6/1 M/L.


One scratch, one loss. Overall: 2/5, -1.3 units.

For Sat, 12/22, Power Gal (9/2 M/L) in Race 3 at Aqueduct.

The angle is pretty simple: highly rated horses from Japan tend to do well. Ganbatte.


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