Idea For Metric Here - Page 2 784 views

"Hobbs" multiplied his bankroll by 4 times by taking big odds. I believe his system works based on his knowledge works quite well. How would this affect a capper like him? Normalizing a +300 to -110, just as someone who takes favarites at -400 to -110.

Actually, I thought data was already normalized to -110 in some sense. I believe that people should flourish or crash and burn on their method. It seems to me that a new system is attempting to make losing cappers who have 60% winning, but they take -300 teams to get to the 60%.

As for money management, that is part of the game. I never take a -1600, because that is poor money management, as it would be taking a +2000 as the time.

Maybe, I don't get what you are trying to achieve. I would not attempt to make cappers who are -400 units in the hole look like champions, when people are paying for winning cappers.

Edited 11/18/14 at 10:20PM by BigBetsall - No reason listed.


I suppose winning months would be better than winning days, but I still think it's pretty arbitrary to credit one capper who has positive 30-day periods that happen to coincide with the calendar month, over another who has positive 30-day periods that run from, say, the 15th to the 15th of each month. They could be identical handicappers in terms of quality and consistency, but the former would appear much more consistent when measuring only the # of calendar months with positive results.

All that said, # of positive months is not the worst thing to look a when gauging a handicapper's steadiness.


@ Bigbetsall - If you don't get it, then just ignore the stat. It is as simple as that.

I think you were referring to eWP, which isn't what we're discussing here, and also Z score / standard score has absolutely nothing to do with normalizing odds. Read up:

Either way, eWP doesn't make a losing capper out of anyone who is winning. It isn't possible.

Lastly, you're way off on the hobbs thing. Hobbs has 438 regular unmodified units and has 433 'effective units.' What did he quadruple? Nothing.

Edited 11/18/14 at 10:40PM by ProComputerGambler - No reason listed.

IMO, the more information the better. Before I became a member here, I'd never heard of Z score, nor did I understand what it was. To this day I don't know how to calculate it on my own, but it has become one of my favorite metrics.

Edited 11/18/14 at 10:49PM by RenoChazz - No reason listed.


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