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Inflate Your Balls... 417 views

I just sent this out:

SUPER BOWL:
I know it is a way off, but I wanted to document some thoughts today for the Super Bowl:
Facts:
*Since 2001, the Favorite has been just 6-6 and 3-9 ATS in the SB. Edge: Seahawks.
*The Patriots are 9-5 ATS 13-1 SU on artificial this season, but this year the SB is on a
natural surface where the Pats are only 1-3 ATS 1-3 SU - Edge Seahawks
*Since 2001, the team that benefited more from Turnovers is just 3-8 ATS in the Super Bowl and 5-6 SU. Edge Seahawks
There are more things that look real similar to this. Basically this is where it pays to fade the public as the team that looks worse usually covers the spread and Seattle is recieving under 40% of the public bets. Edge Seahawks
Even though most of the bets are on the Patriots, the line has moved from +1.5 to PK indicating bigger money / sharp money on Seattle. Edge Seahawks
You can see where this is going...I like the Seahawks to win the SuperBowl. My finger is on the trigger, but there is one little caveat:
I know what happens when Belichick drops the mic. On the advice of my counsel, I reserve my right to invoke the Fifth Amendment
On the advice of my counsel, I reserve my right to invoke the Fifth Amendment
On the advice of my counsel, I reserve my right to invoke the Fifth Amendment
On the advice of my counsel, I reserve my right to invoke the Fifth Amendment
etc.
Edge: PATRIOTS
Man, I hate this inflated ball crap. Who cares. Why bring it up now? When Belichick is angry, he does well. I needed to point out today that this extenuating circumstance brings us into very uncharted territory. I need to see how this media brutality against the Pats pans out before making any decision for the Superbowl. We'll see what the raw numbers say later.

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I see more "conspiracy" or "fixed" on the seahawks game, cmon both teams were playing the first 3QTS nasty and suddenly seahawks gained "muscle" to get over it. they want to cover it calling the "deflate balls" things.

Edited 1/22/15 at 12:58PM by parleymoney - No reason listed.

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@PCG,

From what I've read it seems to hurt teams (Pats), as they end up dealing with this type of BS when they have to think about deflate gate or ball ghazi, instead of simply field football questions as they would rather be just thinking about the game. How much of it will actually affect the outcome is another issue. I'm not sure it has any effect on the Seahawks.

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Thanks wacked. Man, could go either way. It is really uncharted territory and really just seems like a stupid thing to bring up.

To say that one man's balls are better than another's is ridiculous. You can do whatever you want with your balls. I wonder if the refs smelled Tom Brady's balls too.

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There is no way the Seahwaks win. The only thing they had going was if everyone thought the pats would win, then the nfl would surprise you. But people still think Seattle will win, so it will be NE. Furthermore, seattle defense has slowed down and lynch has too despite good #s. The main problem is not enough receivers, and the defense isn't making up for it like they were. If Cobb could split them, imagine what Edelman and the rest will do. Gronk on a lot of rest is dangerous too. Besides stats that go out the window at game time, the best argument for seattle is their defense, and it's just not there right now and won't show up sunday ime.
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seems like all the attention is on the Pats. They rolled the Colts, while the Seahawks barely survived and now Deflategate, etc. I see Seattle being in the same position they were in last year. Legendary QB trying to win another ring while their defense and their depth just goes out and wins the game for them again. Everybody assumes Seattle will lose because they had such a terrible time last game and that presents us the value in this game, IMO. The defending champs are underdogs and getting points? Yes please!
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Thanks procomp and great capping over the years. Good catch on the open ended comment. I try to remain as unbiased as possible on football. Part of my analysis is following not only the stats and the games, but also the analysts and insiders. Analysts have been amping up the Seattle Defense. To this point I have respected it, because it has been able to overcome the obvious lack of receiving skill on the team. Of course this is also negated by Wilson being able to run himself. I do expect Wilson to be healthy and run a bunch, providing important scoring and drives once again, keeping the game close, maybe even nail biting. From watching the game against gb and the previous game, two things stuck out. Much of my skill in capping and et al comes from comparing expectation to reality, and I seem to float closer to reality. For ex. I hope to god not, but reality tells me Hilary Clinton will be the next president, over walker. If you know me you know why this is a good example of my being realistic. Back to the point. What has stuck out to me is that the Seattle Defense is highly overrated at this point in time. Perhaps the colts making it so far is proof that teams in this years playoffs are not overwhelmingly offensive anyway. Look how the best offense, the cowboys, faired. The second thing sticking out was that Marshawn Lynch cannot break away from the line and score when they need it. He has been pushing the pile for first downs, but not breaking away. He kind of has short strong steps so I guess he relies on good blocking (which will probably struggle against the pats great line). Green Bay had to heavily rely on devante Adams and make perfect passes and lucky catches before the game against Seattle. Versus Seattle, Cobb was way more active and seemingly wide open up the middle. With the pats running up the side as they do how will Seattle adapt. I think coaching is 65 to 70% of the big games, saving plays for opportune times. By these numbers and considering the pats routes to the sides, it is overwhelming and nearly impossible for seattles coaches to adapt and get the right coverage. Brady will be too hungry to choke anyway and this will make it extremely easy for him when focused. Lastly Eddie lacy was able to have great success up the middle against Seattle. Against a great defense the analysts describe, the likes of lacy should be shut down. There are more factors about the defense I will save for next week.

Wanted to mention I do not know why people think the pats are favorited. They are only favorited by bookies and bettors. The line will move toward Seattle next week. Easily 6/10 non bettors will say Seattle when asked. I have been hearing calls for Seattle repeat all year. Pats have been known to blow Super Bowls, they are the underdog though if I made the line they would be -190. I cannot stress enough that people are not leaning for ne. This is a farse based on early predictions and wagers.

Edited 1/22/15 at 6:21PM by AtTheHelm43 - No reason listed.

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ATH - The Patriots were indeed favorites and with most of the public bets on their side moved back to PK. Big money came down on Seattle early against the grain. More people (fact) believe that the Patriots will win this one according to several major bet percent trackers like sportsinsights, sportsbook spy and sbrodds. People don't buy the Seahawk's win. It seemed lucky. Russell Wilson even thought it was lucky and it was!

I like the fact that the Seahawks just had a sobering game.

My lean is Seattle, but I think your points are mostly valid. Should be tight. Won't be going heavy here, but really, the only reason I won't do a heavy bet is because of the football inflation scandal. It is uncharted territory. I don't think anyone can really say what that will result in. My hunch is that it would only add to the Pats performance as I believe teams play harder to prove things....they're going to have legit footballs now and will definately want to make the statement: we can win with whatever lemons you hand us. I've seen Brady play in feet of snow just trudging along like it is nothing. The scandal is asinine and is just something that is screwing with my bet I want to make on the Seahawks.

Thanks for the opinions. May just pass on this one. Always fun though to call Super Bowls right. I'm 4-0 in the last 5 years.

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I have not bet on the superbowl yet, I think most people haven't. The many that have are constant bettors or those in the sports betting scene. On the Sunday of the game when everyone arrives to their parties is when much of the regular action will be made by non betting fans. These people I think will go for Seattle.
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