Luck may very well be the most important asset in any sports forecaster's repertoire, but this alone is not synonymous with, or directly translate into, success.
There are those, and I am sure everyone has met them... the person that always seems to fall back asswards in to success whether they are trying for that result or not. When an upcoming sporting event is reviewed by a forecaster with the intention of selecting a winner versus the odds set by a sports book, they are utilizing some form of decision making process, or calibration of data, that they feel personally comfortable with that will allow their selection to escape a loss, thus drawing a favourable conclusion from the event, whether it be a push or win.
The sports forecaster has absolutely zero control over the events that occur throughout a game and subsequently lead to the end result of any sporting event, therefore luck is the final factor to which I believe there are different denominations that some people naturally possess over others.
I'm not saying that the information and processes that we have installed to base our decisions on is right or wrong or good or bad. What I am saying is the most important facet of wagering on sporting events is the ability to consciously and fully comprehend that none of us are any better or worse than anyone else that is challenging the oddsmakers, and that the outcomes of any sporting event is never determined solely by any statistics or empirical data we have implemented into our decision making process. For some, this is a tough pill to swallow, for others, it is redundant information that they already understand completely.
In every case since the dawn of sport, final game results are the compilation of a plethora of events that no individual in their right mind could honestly admit to having predicted, action by action, in the most micro sense, and make no mistake about this, it is the total combination of every action that occurs throughout the game that ultimately produces the result.
Successful sports forecasting boils down more to one's ability to effectively manage the personal subjective aspects, such as money management, patience, discipline, and emotional detachment from the events themselves. Of course, generating positive returns is of utmost importance and MUST be achieved to even be considered remotely successful, but as you can see from the Pick Monitor leader board itself by the sheer number of people displaying positive returns this is not as difficult to complete as being able to complete all of the aspects combined with it.
In my mind, what separates the best from the worst, the forecaster that will lead you to long term success or the fast path to ruin, is the ability of the forecaster to effectively integrate, and emanate to prospective clients, all of the aspects listed above.
Edited 3/10/13 at 2:31PM by Timothy Wynn - No reason listed.