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Mlb Favorites So Far In 2020 453 views

As of last game on 7/29/2020 MLB faves are 50-29 somewhere between 6% and 7% ROI if you "Flatted" them all so far. This is good news for DOG bettors cuz this can't last or someone is gonna lose their job. Squares got $$$ burning a hole in their pockets and they will keep firing on them faves no matter what the price. I promise will see good DOG prices soon.

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Interesting addition ... If it was the first game of the series faves 22-6 so far this season. BTW probably not a coincidence ...

Edited 7/30/20 at 1:37AM by goldendd - No reason listed.

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Favorites are now 56-35 between 3% and 4% ROI based on closing number. Here is the interesting part. Favorites that had a drastic change in Moneyline from the opening number did very poorly. Teams whose ML moved -50 or more to the bad side or +40 or more to the good side went 1-9. So by eliminating faves with these huge line swings ... 55-25 or 16% ROI based on the closing number. I know you are gonna say hindsight is 20/20 but there are actually good handicapping reasons to throw out plays with that much line movement. I have been cashing on some of these faves but I'm a just dog player "Waiting in the bushes."

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2020 Faves 81-47 maintaining about 6% ROI as they did very well yesterday 8/02 based on the closing number. Still plays with big line swings are not doing as well. faves are 74-32 (70%) if you eliminate -50 or more and +21 or more. I decided to go down to -50 to +21 cuz +21 or higher is 3-10 and ML moves in the teams favor tend to be a bad sign anyway. Ride it out cuz it wont last forever.

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All faves 88-49 64% - 7% ROI closing number ... 80-34 70% - 17% ROI closing number (-49 to +20) ML change from opening number. Not a system just some good info ... See you in the "Short line."

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KickCorridor ... Faves that opened -150 to +999 based on closing number (58-27) 21% ROI based on Pinny closing number. Faves that closed -150 to +999 (51-27) 17% ROI ... Overall faves are 27-20 (-4% ROI) when it's the 2nd game of the series, this is not a coincidence. Opening number is important as well as line movemnt so this is just usfull info, not a system. Any theroies on the 2nd game of series thing??

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Something I would like to add just cuz its relevant. MLB favorites at least for the last 15 years or so don't do as well it terms of ROI than on weekdays. If you talk to a casual bettor they come up with all kinds of theories why DOGS "Do Better" on weekends. The same people will tell you that NBA unders on Sundays is because of players not getting enough rest before a Sunday afternoon game, this is mostly crap. I'm here to tell you that its line shading. I worked in a casino for 34 years and im telling you, don't try to pick the winner, play the market, use the bookmakers tricks against them. MLB favorites ROI is negative on Saturdays because of line shading. It's all about value. Books know when they are going to have a high ticket day and they exploit it. It goes deeper and I'd like to hear your thoughts ... BTW 23 of the 2nd game of the series were on Saturdays. Faves playing on Saturday this season when it's the 2nd game of the series are 12-11 (-12% ROI) NOT a coincedence.

Edited 8/5/20 at 1:50PM by goldendd - Added info ...

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Theory used to go 1st game of a series Dogs get up more. Weird considering travel. Maybe it's day games, covid fear, who knows.

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All faves 113-62 (8% ROI) ... Saturday only 14-12 (-9%) ... ML change (-49 to +19) 102-41 (20% ROI) In this sample Saturday is still the worst day @ 13-8 ... You starting to see a pattern here?? KickCorridor the cutoff between profit and loss here is -185 ... All faves, regardless of opening ML that closed -185 or better, 94-42 (19% ROI) ... -185 to -999, 18-20 (-32% ROI) ... This is not a coincidnce people ...

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re your 58-27 for faves -150 or better, and your 88-49 all up for the rest.
That would make it 30-22 for unprofitable, or worse than -150, faves. That's 58%. Bet just one -150 a day, you hit 69% if it wins every single day.
btw, love your work.

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Ok end of the day on August 9th. All favorites 134 - 83 62% 4% roi. All favorites with a closing moneyline of -185 or better 112 - 60 65% 13% roi. All favorites where the money is more than the tickets (commonly referred to as sharp money even though it isn't always), 79 - 40 to 65% 11% roi. All favorites where the closing number had a swing between (-49 and +19) from opening number 122 - 57 68% 16% roi. Now because I'm a market player I look for bad news that affects the market and the prices and with favorites it's a very easy one. All favorites who have come off a two-game offensive point streak of 0 to 5 runs 56 - 28 67% 14% roi. Recency bias and public perception are huge and some people who think they know what they're doing have a real tough time backing a favorite who hasn't been scoring a lot of runs. It can definitely be used to our advantage. The public can forgive one low scoring game even if the team loses. The 0 to 5 runs in 2 games stat is this season only and I don't know how many 14 inning double headers in the calculation as it would tend to skew the numbers. "See you in the short line."

Edited 8/10/20 at 1:42AM by goldendd - No reason listed.

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Ok end of the night August 11th 2020 all favorites 146 - 89 62% roi 5%. All favorites where the money line change limited to -49 to +19 135 - 65 68% roi 15%. all favorites coming off of a two-game offensive point streak of 0-5 are 64 - 31 67% roi 15%. So far this season there's been good prices on favorites that have come off of back-to-back bad offensive performances. Remember this is a market. You need to exploit when the public makes mistakes. I got some really good data on dogs and what kind of dogs are winning this year if anybody cares I'll keep talking about it. For now "See you in the Short line."

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For those of us that have been doing this long enough remember when you could bet an MLB dog when the open total was 8.5 or higher and you were getting +125ish or better. Just those 2 rules squeaked out a small profit. Now things are different. The number is 9 or higher and I want you to focus on 9 and 9.5 ... Not trying to pick winners here, looking for value. Just start with teams that are closing as the dog and the opening total for the game was 9.0 or 9.5 ... Friday, Saturday and Sunday are the most profitable days for game opening 9 to 9.5 because those are the highest ticket volume days. These are the days where the you are gonna get the best dog prices cuz books can exploit casual bettors easier when the ticket count is high on faves. TBC

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Okay end of the day August 13th 2020 favorites overall 161 - 97 62% roi 6%. Favorites who's closing Pinnacle number was -185 to +999, 139 - 70 to 66% roi 15%. BTW, all favorites that closed -186 to -999, 24 - 27 (-32 % roi.) All favorites where the money was higher than tickets AKA sharp money, 97 - 50 66% roi 13% the sample includes all favorites that got money more than tickets even though there is a "Sweet spot" with better ROI. Closing favorites who had a moneyline swing between -49 and +19, 149 - 70 68% roi 16%. I'm gonna start another thread for DOGS so it doesn't get confusing. In the previous reply I talked about DOGS that with open totals of 9.0 and 9.5 ... So I must include all favorites for the 2020 season where the opening total was anything but 9.0 or 9.5 ... So all open totals from 6.0 to 15.0 excluding 9.0 and 9.5 and the team was the closing favorite ... 92 - 40 70% roi 20% ... "See you on the short line." Dick Mitchell

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Ok end of the day August 17th 2020 all favorites 193 - 106 65% roi +9% closing number. all favorites with the exception of the games where the opening total was either 9.0 or 9.5, 105 - 44 70% roi +21%. ***Pay attention to DOGS when the opening total is 9.0*** All favorites that are coming off of a poor offensive scoring streak of 0 to 5 total runs in the last two games 78 - 37 68% roi +16%. All favorites closing at -183 to +999 160 - 80 67% roi +16%. All favorites where the money was more than the tickets (AKA sharp money) 113 - 57 66% roi +13%. All favorites where the money line change from opening was between (-49 to +19) 174 - 78 69% roi +17%. All favorites closing ML -184 or worse 34 - 30 53% (roi -23%) you need 65% just to break even @-185 ... First half (1st 5 innings) ALL favorites very very different, 151 - 109 - 45 58% (roi -8%). "See you on the short line" Dick Mitchell ...

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Okay end of the day August 23rd not all the results are in but this is what I got. All favorites 2020 season so far, 243 - 137 64% roi +8%. All favorites with the exception of when the opening total (including the 7 inning games) is 9.0 or 9.5, 130 - 58 69% +19% roi. all favorites that are coming off a two-game offensive point streak of 0 to 5 runs per game. so for instance the team could have scored as many as 10 runs in the last two games but was limited to five runs per game 95 - 46 67% +15% roi. Favorites regardless of where the moneyline opened if team closed -183 to +999, 202 - 107 65% roi +13%. As a matter of fact favorites that close -184 or worse are doing incredibly bad, 44 - 35 56% (minus 20% roi). All favorites where the moneyline change was between -49 and +19 from the opening, 218 - 107 67% roi 14%. All faves where the money was more than the tickets AKA "Sharp money" 136 - 71 66% roi 12%. BTW money more that tickets is not always a good thing. All favorites first-half, first five innings moneyline, 200 - 136 - 53 60% roi (minus 5%). Win percentage 1H for faves is 4% lower that full game, this has created a good DOG opportunity 1H ... "See you on the short line."

Edited 8/23/20 at 2:26AM by goldendd - Fix error

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