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Pcg Nfl Rankings Super Bowl 640 views

Here is an excerpt from my email for Wild Card Weekend + A Bold Super Bowl Prediction:

"...PCG Playoff Rankings:

1. Seattle Seahawks
2. Denver Broncos (UNDERRATED)
3. Baltimore Ravens (awesome defense getting 25% more sacks / game than Texans)
4. Green Bay Packers (MVP alert; fade if that's the case)
5. New England Patriots (bumped down)
6. Indianapolis Colts
7. Dallas Cowboys (OVERRATED)
8. Detroit Lions
9. Arizona Cardinals
10. Pittsburgh Steelers (too one dimensional)
11. Cincinnati Bengals
12. Carolina Panthers (WORST)
Note: The two teams that I said are under/over rated are in the position I think they should be (partly) because of that.
Note2: Patriots bumped down because they failed to beat the Bills. The last 3 Super Bowls Belichick has won included blowouts for their last games of regular season. I think the title goes to another team this year.
Note3: The Panthers are terrible. How did they get in? Rob Ryan; that's how; glad we stopped betting the Saints when I began to realize how bad he is as a leader of the defense and play caller. I choose to poke a stick at Ryan by the way because it is only fair. Brees seems to be the one getting all of the blame and I consider him one of the best all time NFL QBs. Drew Brees is tied for 1st in the league for passing yards this season. With an offense that good and such a meager record it should show you how bad the defense is that they're working with.
Note4: On this year's MVP: Important to note that the Texans are just 21st in the league for defensive sacks per game. JJ Watt is the only one pulling them off. My argument is against Watt being the league MVP; I think that an MVP is someone who takes their team to the playoffs. A defensive captain or a leader on offense who rallies everyone around him.

Note5: The Packers would be higher up if it weren't for Rodgers probably going to be MVP. If he is, I don't recommend betting the Packers. There is something about a QB MVP I don't like betting for. Not that it inflates the spread so much as it puts a fat and happy accomplished mindset into the player which isn't needed or, I think wanted for the good of a team.

Anyways, those are my projected rankings mostly based on Numbers and seasoned with my own personal touch. We'll see how correct or incorrect I am in roughly a month!
Oh hell, I know you guys want me to predict a Super Bowl winner: Most value is in Baltimore at +4553 odds.
THE SELECTIONS:...."

7

Good point. That is impressive I suppose; however, it's all numbers, but here's some stuff to consider with the Cowboys. Consider the teams that they've played on the road though: Titans, Rams, Jaguars, Giants (barely won), Bears, Eagles, Redskins. All terrible/bad or mediocre. The only impressive one was in Seattle.

They've had THE NUMBER 1 easiest strength of schedule in the NFL.

They have a very unmotivated defense pulling only 1.7 sacks per game (3rd worst in the league). Sacks in the playoffs is a big stat for me...

In their last 5 games, they're the 7th worst team in the league for points allowed (adjusted to non-offensive scoring).

Just some thoughts...they might be more legit than I think they are. These are just my opinions based heavily on fact.

3

The Seattle game was huge, they playing better now too. So is the Seahawks also. But now the Cowboys are confident they can go in there again and get the job done.

Their offense is clicking on all cylinders, that's their best defense. Keep the ball the other team can't score. Think every team has to put up 30+ to beat them

2

Nice post PCG, I'll give my rankings differences from yours with notes below:

"...PCG Playoff Rankings:

1. Seattle Seahawks (Agree)
2. Denver Broncos (UNDERRATED) (Disagree....Manning has looked horrible the last few weeks), move to #5)
3. Baltimore Ravens (awesome defense getting 25% more sacks / game than Texans) (Agree, underrated, but too high @ #3 over all.. move to #6)
4. Green Bay Packers (MVP alert; fade if that's the case) (Agree at #4...defense is highly suspect and Rogers had been dealing with calf injury)
5. New England Patriots (bumped down) (Move to #2...The loss to Bills is insignificant. Patriots benched many starters before and during game)
6. Indianapolis Colts (Drop to #7...defense is not good enough to win and running game is suspect.
7. Dallas Cowboys (OVERRATED) (#3 Might have easiest schedule, but Romo is #1 QBR on year, top RB and top WR, with avg defense can win)
8. Detroit Lions (Drop to #10 Will never win with Stafford at QB)
9. Arizona Cardinals (Keep #9 Defense is good enough to win, just needs some help at QB with some plays during the game)
10. Pittsburgh Steelers (too one dimensional) (Move to #8...defense isn't great, but if they beat Ravens without Bell & he returns week after..watch out.
11. Cincinnati Bengals (Agree, #11, Hrmm no Green and Dalton at QB?..no thanks)
12. Carolina Panthers (WORST) (Agree #12, Last 4 weeks, is not the playoffs...should lose to Zona today.

3

Nice thoughts, but I think Baltimore is exactly where they should be on that list. Great defense. Bold and accurate offense. Perception of them is surely inflated now that they beat the Steelers shorthanded Bell, but that was a reason I made Baltimore +3 a TOP PLAY (8-4 66.7% on the season) this week. Read the Writeup Here: http://www.procomputergambler.com/wild-card-top-play-wins/

The Patriots have got to me shaking right now after that show the Ravens just put on.

My response to your comments wacked are as follows:

2. "Manning has looked horrible" - That is why I say they're underrated. The Broncos aren't just Peyton Manning. I actually like him coming into the playoffs humbled with a good supporting cast. Good dynamic. #2 is where the team should be.

3. Right where they should be.

5. Disagree. The loss to the Bills WAS significant. Winning week 17 means something to Bill Belichick. Each Super Bowl he has won was preceded by a blowout in his last regular season game which gave them momentum. Now all the Pats are doing is questioning themselves.

7. Good point on Dallas. SOS doesn't mean a ton. Plenty of low SOS teams have squeaked in and built confidence off the bottom feeders. I'm betting Detroit +8 tomorrow though. Way too many points for Dallas against a top defense and high powered offense. Are they really that good?

9. Did what they could. Lindley is awful.

2
Good stuff ProComputerGambler, you certainly give strong analyses with everything you have posted from what I have seen.

I have some futures in play regarding the AFC & NFC conferences that were placed about 2 months prior to the regular season. My plan was to take teams considered to be long shots, but possessed good value IMO, then hopefully be in a position to hedge throughout the post season.

The NFC worked out extremely well in that I have 5/6ths of the field in play, with only Seattle being the odd team out. I restrained from taking the Seahawks because of the odds attached to them being too low IMO. With the present situation, I feel comfortable just letting things play out, and only hedging should Seattle make it to the conference finals.

The AFC didn't work out quite so nicely. I would have had 3 of the 6 had the Chargers & Chiefs secured a wild card position, but unfortunately for me, this did not happen. I have only the Bengals to hope for, but the odds of them getting to the conference finals are slim at best IMO. I will more than likely just hope for the best and politely ignore this situation altogether.

After all is said and done I should do no worse than breaking even because of the strong position I have in the NFC, with the option of backing up my total futures wagers in the NFC conference finals should Seattle be there, although I would absolutely love it if the Seahawks were upset along the way so I would be guaranteed to have representation in the Super Bowl :)

Does anyone else have a similar situation with futures this year?
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Thanks Tim. I don't do that much, but did once and I remember in the tangle at the end I just locked in profits where I could by betting sides to cover the future and walk out with profit either way.

Chargers and Chiefs were both good picks. They're both better than at least two of the teams IN the playoffs at the moment imo.

2

Thanks. I have to make a slight change. I don't want to say Dallas is overrated anymore, but NOT because I was impressed. Actually I was very unimpressed with them last week. Here is something I wrote up earlier in the week:

"Last week: The Cowboys were graced a close win by some inconceivable officiating. EVERYONE thinks so now. Conspiracy or not, here's what I think is happening now: Dallas has been hearing this news harder than anyone. One bad call deciding an outcome of a game is rare, but it did in this one. Just yesterday, I was thinking fade those damn Cowboys now in Green Bay. They don't deserve to be where they are; but I slept on it: The Cowboys got their wake up call and I say they keep it close with Green Bay situationally speaking. I wouldn't call them Overrated anymore...or at least now they are possiblyout of the faulty overrated mindset; if they're not, God help them...I mean refs help them. They lost to the Lions on paper and should know better than anyone that things get MUCH harder now than what they've seen all season. What happens now is, everyone gets on the naysaying bandwagon though and the Cowboys come out 110% this week instead of the 90% they came out with last week. That is my thought process for why I'm going to pass on betting the Green Bay Packers. Packers are a whole lot better, but the Cowboys are a strange team. They do terribly as favorites and then come back and amaze as dogs. We'll see...I need a game this week I can just sit back and enjoy without money on it. It'll be this one, but if you bet it, consider the contrarian side: the Dallas Cowboys. Aaron Rodgers is injured by the way. " Just a lean. I highly recommend avoiding betting the Dallas / Packers game.

2

Good call. Well here's an update:

1. Seattle Seahawks (W)
2. Denver Broncos (L)
3. Baltimore Ravens (L)
4. Green Bay Packers (W)
5. New England Patriots (W)
6. Indianapolis Colts (W)
7. Dallas Cowboys (OVERRATED) (L)
8. Detroit Lions (L)
9. Arizona Cardinals (L)
10. Pittsburgh Steelers (too one dimensional) (L)
11. Cincinnati Bengals (L)
12. Carolina Panthers (WORST) (L)

3

For betting purposes:

1. Seattle Seahawks (W) Covered
2. Denver Broncos (L) No-Cover
3. Baltimore Ravens (L) Covered
4. Green Bay Packers (W) Covered
5. New England Patriots (W) No-Cover
6. Indianapolis Colts (W) Covered
7. Dallas Cowboys (OVERRATED) (L) No-Cover
8. Detroit Lions (L) Covered
9. Arizona Cardinals (L) No-Cover
10. Pittsburgh Steelers (too one dimensional) (L) No-Cover
11. Cincinnati Bengals (L) No-Cover
12. Carolina Panthers (WORST) (L) No-Cover

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